Fast Kernel Approximations for Latent Force Models and Convolved Multiple-Output Gaussian processes

A latent force model is a Gaussian process with a covariance function inspired by a differential operator. Such covariance function is obtained by performing convolution integrals between Green's functions associated to the differential operators, and covariance functions associated to latent functions. In the classical formulation of latent force models, the covariance functions are obtained analytically by solving a double integral, leading to expressions that involve numerical solutions of different types of error functions. In consequence, the covariance matrix calculation is considerably expensive, because it requires the evaluation of one or more of these error functions. In this paper, we use random Fourier features to approximate the solution of these double integrals obtaining simpler analytical expressions for such covariance functions. We show experimental results using ordinary differential operators and provide an extension to build general kernel functions for convolved multiple output Gaussian processes.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, accepted by UAI 201

Computationally Efficient Convolved Multiple Output Gaussian Processes

Recently there has been an increasing interest in methods that deal with multiple outputs. This has been motivated partly by frameworks like multitask learning, multisensor networks or structured output data. From a Gaussian processes perspective, the problem reduces to specifying an appropriate covariance function that, whilst being positive semi-definite, captures the dependencies between all the data points and across all the outputs. One approach to account for non-trivial correlations between outputs employs convolution processes. Under a latent function interpretation of the convolution transform we establish dependencies between output variables. The main drawbacks of this approach are the associated computational and storage demands. In this paper we address these issues. We present different sparse approximations for dependent output Gaussian processes constructed through the convolution formalism. We exploit the conditional independencies present naturally in the model. This leads to a form of the covariance similar in spirit to the so called PITC and FITC approximations for a single output. We show experimental results with synthetic and real data, in particular, we show results in pollution prediction, school exams score prediction and gene expression data

Convolved Gaussian process priors for multivariate regression with applications to dynamical systems

In this thesis we address the problem of modeling correlated outputs using Gaussian process priors. Applications of modeling correlated outputs include the joint prediction of pollutant metals in geostatistics and multitask learning in machine learning. Defining a Gaussian process prior for correlated outputs translates into specifying a suitable covariance function that captures dependencies between the different output variables. Classical models for obtaining such a covariance function include the linear model of coregionalization and process convolutions. We propose a general framework for developing multiple output covariance functions by performing convolutions between smoothing kernels particular to each output and covariance functions that are common to all outputs. Both the linear model of coregionalization and the process convolutions turn out to be special cases of this framework. Practical aspects of the proposed methodology are studied in this thesis. They involve the use of domain-specific knowledge for defining relevant smoothing kernels, efficient approximations for reducing computational complexity and a novel method for establishing a general class of nonstationary covariances with applications in robotics and motion capture data.Reprints of the publications that appear at the end of this document, report case studies and experimental results in sensor networks, geostatistics and motion capture data that illustrate the performance of the different methods proposed.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Linear latent force models using Gaussian processes.

Purely data-driven approaches for machine learning present difficulties when data are scarce relative to the complexity of the model or when the model is forced to extrapolate. On the other hand, purely mechanistic approaches need to identify and specify all the interactions in the problem at hand (which may not be feasible) and still leave the issue of how to parameterize the system. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach using Gaussian processes and differential equations to combine data-driven modeling with a physical model of the system. We show how different, physically inspired, kernel functions can be developed through sensible, simple, mechanistic assumptions about the underlying system. The versatility of our approach is illustrated with three case studies from motion capture, computational biology, and geostatistics

Variational Inference of Joint Models using Multivariate Gaussian Convolution Processes

We present a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on joint modeling of both longitudinal and time-to-event data. Our approach exploits a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) to model the evolution of longitudinal signals and a Cox model to map time-to-event data with longitudinal data modeled through the MGCP. Taking advantage of the unique structure imposed by convolved processes, we provide a variational inference framework to simultaneously estimate parameters in the joint MGCP-Cox model. This significantly reduces computational complexity and safeguards against model overfitting. Experiments on synthetic and real world data show that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the art approaches built on two-stage inference and strong parametric assumptions

Weakly-supervised Multi-output Regression via Correlated Gaussian Processes

Multi-output regression seeks to infer multiple latent functions using data from multiple groups/sources while accounting for potential between-group similarities. In this paper, we consider multi-output regression under a weakly-supervised setting where a subset of data points from multiple groups are unlabeled. We use dependent Gaussian processes for multiple outputs constructed by convolutions with shared latent processes. We introduce hyperpriors for the multinomial probabilities of the unobserved labels and optimize the hyperparameters which we show improves estimation. We derive two variational bounds: (i) a modified variational bound for fast and stable convergence in model inference, (ii) a scalable variational bound that is amenable to stochastic optimization. We use experiments on synthetic and real-world data to show that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art models with more accurate estimation of multiple latent functions and unobserved labels

The Gaussian Process Autoregressive Regression Model (GPAR)

Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have limited representational power. We present the Gaussian Process Autoregressive Regression (GPAR) model, a scalable multi-output GP model that is able to capture nonlinear, possibly input-varying, dependencies between outputs in a simple and tractable way: the product rule is used to decompose the joint distribution over the outputs into a set of conditionals, each of which is modelled by a standard GP. GPAR's efficacy is demonstrated on a variety of synthetic and real-world problems, outperforming existing GP models and achieving state-of-the-art performance on established benchmarks

Kernels for Vector-Valued Functions: a Review

Kernel methods are among the most popular techniques in machine learning. From a frequentist/discriminative perspective they play a central role in regularization theory as they provide a natural choice for the hypotheses space and the regularization functional through the notion of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. From a Bayesian/generative perspective they are the key in the context of Gaussian processes, where the kernel function is also known as the covariance function. Traditionally, kernel methods have been used in supervised learning problem with scalar outputs and indeed there has been a considerable amount of work devoted to designing and learning kernels. More recently there has been an increasing interest in methods that deal with multiple outputs, motivated partly by frameworks like multitask learning. In this paper, we review different methods to design or learn valid kernel functions for multiple outputs, paying particular attention to the connection between probabilistic and functional methods