7,331 research outputs found
Efficient Likelihood Evaluation of State-Space Representations
We develop a numerical procedure that facilitates efficient likelihood evaluation in applications involving non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. The procedure employs continuous approximations of filtering densities, and delivers unconditionally optimal global approximations of targeted integrands to achieve likelihood approximation. Optimized approximations of targeted integrands are constructed via efficient importance sampling. Resulting likelihood approximations are continuous functions of model parameters, greatly enhancing parameter estimation. We illustrate our procedure in applications to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.Adaption, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, efficient importance sampling, kernel density approximation, particle filter.
Bayesian optimisation for likelihood-free cosmological inference
Many cosmological models have only a finite number of parameters of interest,
but a very expensive data-generating process and an intractable likelihood
function. We address the problem of performing likelihood-free Bayesian
inference from such black-box simulation-based models, under the constraint of
a very limited simulation budget (typically a few thousand). To do so, we adopt
an approach based on the likelihood of an alternative parametric model.
Conventional approaches to approximate Bayesian computation such as
likelihood-free rejection sampling are impractical for the considered problem,
due to the lack of knowledge about how the parameters affect the discrepancy
between observed and simulated data. As a response, we make use of a strategy
previously developed in the machine learning literature (Bayesian optimisation
for likelihood-free inference, BOLFI), which combines Gaussian process
regression of the discrepancy to build a surrogate surface with Bayesian
optimisation to actively acquire training data. We extend the method by
deriving an acquisition function tailored for the purpose of minimising the
expected uncertainty in the approximate posterior density, in the parametric
approach. The resulting algorithm is applied to the problems of summarising
Gaussian signals and inferring cosmological parameters from the Joint
Lightcurve Analysis supernovae data. We show that the number of required
simulations is reduced by several orders of magnitude, and that the proposed
acquisition function produces more accurate posterior approximations, as
compared to common strategies.Comment: 16+9 pages, 12 figures. Matches PRD published version after minor
modification
Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models That Learn From Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations
Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which
originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds,
convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New
computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning
make it possible to integrate global observations and local high-resolution
simulations in an Earth system model (ESM) that systematically learns from
both. Here we propose a blueprint for such an ESM. We outline how
parameterization schemes can learn from global observations and targeted
high-resolution simulations, for example, of clouds and convection, through
matching low-order statistics between ESMs, observations, and high-resolution
simulations. We illustrate learning algorithms for ESMs with a simple dynamical
system that shares characteristics of the climate system; and we discuss the
opportunities the proposed framework presents and the challenges that remain to
realize it.Comment: 32 pages, 3 figure
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