Eigenvalue and Eigenvector Statistics in Time Series Analysis

The study of correlated time-series is ubiquitous in statistical analysis, and the matrix decomposition of the cross-correlations between time series is a universal tool to extract the principal patterns of behavior in a wide range of complex systems. Despite this fact, no general result is known for the statistics of eigenvectors of the cross-correlations of correlated time-series. Here we use supersymmetric theory to provide novel analytical results that will serve as a benchmark for the study of correlated signals for a vast community of researchers.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Testing Conditional Factor Models

Using nonparametric techniques, we develop a methodology for estimating conditional alphas and betas and long-run alphas and betas, which are the averages of conditional alphas and betas, respectively, across time. The tests can be performed for a single asset or jointly across portfolios. The traditional Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken (1989) test arises as a special case of no time variation in the alphas and factor loadings and homoskedasticity. As applications of the methodology, we estimate conditional CAPM and multifactor models on book-to-market and momentum decile portfolios. We reject the null that long-run alphas are equal to zero even though there is substantial variation in the conditional factor loadings of these portfolios.

Skewed Factor Models Using Selection Mechanisms

Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-t, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset

Outliers in dynamic factor models

Dynamic factor models have a wide range of applications in econometrics and applied economics. The basic motivation resides in their capability of reducing a large set of time series to only few indicators (factors). If the number of time series is large compared to the available number of observations then most information may be conveyed to the factors. This way low dimension models may be estimated for explaining and forecasting one or more time series of interest. It is desirable that outlier free time series be available for estimation. In practice, outlying observations are likely to arise at unknown dates due, for instance, to external unusual events or gross data entry errors. Several methods for outlier detection in time series are available. Most methods, however, apply to univariate time series while even methods designed for handling the multivariate framework do not include dynamic factor models explicitly. A method for discovering outliers occurrences in a dynamic factor model is introduced that is based on linear transforms of the observed data. Some strategies to separate outliers that add to the model and outliers within the common component are discussed. Applications to simulated and real data sets are presented to check the effectiveness of the proposed method.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-EJS082 the Electronic Journal of Statistics (http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Scale Factor Self-Dual Cosmological Models

We implement a conformal time scale factor duality for Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmological models, which is consistent with the weak energy condition. The requirement for self-duality determines the equations of state for a broad class of barotropic fluids. We study the example of a universe filled with two interacting fluids, presenting an accelerated and a decelerated period, with manifest UV/IR duality. The associated self-dual scalar field interaction turns out to coincide with the "radiation-like" modified Chaplygin gas models. We present an equivalent realization of them as gauged K\"ahler sigma models (minimally coupled to gravity) with very specific and interrelated K\"ahler- and super-potentials. Their applications in the description of hilltop inflation and also as quintessence models for the late universe are discussed.Comment: v3, improved and extended version to be published in JHEP; new results added to sect.2; 4 figures; 17pg

Factor models on locally tree-like graphs

We consider homogeneous factor models on uniformly sparse graph sequences converging locally to a (unimodular) random tree $T$, and study the existence of the free energy density $\phi$, the limit of the log-partition function divided by the number of vertices $n$ as $n$ tends to infinity. We provide a new interpolation scheme and use it to prove existence of, and to explicitly compute, the quantity $\phi$ subject to uniqueness of a relevant Gibbs measure for the factor model on $T$. By way of example we compute $\phi$ for the independent set (or hard-core) model at low fugacity, for the ferromagnetic Ising model at all parameter values, and for the ferromagnetic Potts model with both weak enough and strong enough interactions. Even beyond uniqueness regimes our interpolation provides useful explicit bounds on $\phi$. In the regimes in which we establish existence of the limit, we show that it coincides with the Bethe free energy functional evaluated at a suitable fixed point of the belief propagation (Bethe) recursions on $T$. In the special case that $T$ has a Galton-Watson law, this formula coincides with the nonrigorous "Bethe prediction" obtained by statistical physicists using the "replica" or "cavity" methods. Thus our work is a rigorous generalization of these heuristic calculations to the broader class of sparse graph sequences converging locally to trees. We also provide a variational characterization for the Bethe prediction in this general setting, which is of independent interest.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOP828 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org