Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Kay et al. 2015a) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the FIDO in situ magnetic field model (Kay et al. 2017a), allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35% of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30%. The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.Comment: accepted in JGR: Space Physic

A programming environment for distributed complex computing. An overview of the Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) project. NASA Langley TOPS exhibit H120b

The Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) is a general programming environment for automating the distribution of complex computing tasks over a networked system of heterogeneous computers. For example, instead of manually passing a complex design problem between its diverse specialty disciplines, the FIDO system provides for automatic interactions between the discipline tasks and facilitates their communications. The FIDO system networks all the computers involved into a distributed heterogeneous computing system, so they have access to centralized data and can work on their parts of the total computation simultaneously in parallel whenever possible. Thus, each computational task can be done by the most appropriate computer. Results can be viewed as they are produced and variables changed manually for steering the process. The software is modular in order to ease migration to new problems: different codes can be substituted for each of the current code modules with little or no effect on the others. The potential for commercial use of FIDO rests in the capability it provides for automatically coordinating diverse computations on a networked system of workstations and computers. For example, FIDO could provide the coordination required for the design of vehicles or electronics or for modeling complex systems

English translation and validation of the Ikigai-9 in a UK Sample [Protocol]

The psychological construct of ‘ikigai’ reflects the sense of having a ‘reason for living’ and has been associated with various positive health-related outcomes. This proposal presents an English translation of the Ikigai-9, empirically explores the manifestation of ikigai in the United Kingdom, and outlines its associations with facets of well-being.N/

Hopes, Fears, and Other Grammatical Scarecrows

The standard view of "believes" and other propositional attitude verbs is that such verbs express relations between agents and propositions. A sentence of the form “S believes that p” is true just in case S stands in the belief-relation to the proposition that p; this proposition is the referent of the complement clause "that p." On this view, we would expect the clausal complements of propositional attitude verbs to be freely intersubstitutable with their corresponding proposition descriptions—e.g., "the proposition that p"—as they are in the case of "believes." In many cases, however, intersubstitution of that-clauses and proposition descriptions fails to preserve truth value or even grammaticality. These substitution failures lead some philosophers to reject the standard view of propositional attitude reports. Others conclude that propositional attitude verbs are systematically ambiguous. I reject both these views. On my view, the that-clause complements of propositional attitude verbs denote propositions, but proposition descriptions do not

Neural Dynamics of 3-D Surface Perception: Figure-Ground Separation and Lightness Perception

This article develops the FACADE theory of three-dimensional (3-D) vision to simulate data concerning how two-dimensional (2-D) pictures give rise to 3-D percepts of occluded and occluding surfaces. The theory suggests how geometrical and contrastive properties of an image can either cooperate or compete when forming the boundary and surface representations that subserve conscious visual percepts. Spatially long-range cooperation and short-range competition work together to separate boundaries of occluding ligures from their occluded neighbors, thereby providing sensitivity to T-junctions without the need to assume that T-junction "detectors" exist. Both boundary and surface representations of occluded objects may be amodaly completed, while the surface representations of unoccluded objects become visible through modal processes. Computer simulations include Bregman-Kanizsa figure-ground separation, Kanizsa stratification, and various lightness percepts, including the Munker-White, Benary cross, and checkerboard percepts.Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and Office of Naval Research (N00014-95-1-0409); National Science Foundation (IRI 94-01659, IRI 97-20333); Office of Naval Research (N00014-92-J-1309, N00014-95-1-0657

What Not to Make of Recalcitrant Emotions

Recalcitrant emotions are emotions that conflict with your evaluative judgements, e.g. fearing flying despite judging it to be safe. Drawing on the work of Greenspan and Helm, Brady argues these emotions raise a challenge for a theory of emotion: for any such theory to be adequate, it must be capable of explaining the sense in which subjects that have them are being irrational. This paper aims to raise scepticism with this endeavour of using the irrationality shrouding recalcitrant episodes to inform a theory of emotion. I explain how ‘recalcitrant emotions’ pick out at least two phenomena, which come apart, and that there are different epistemic norms relevant to assessing whether, and if so how, subjects undergoing recalcitrant bouts are being irrational. I argue these factors result in differing accounts of the precise way these emotions make their bearers irrational, which in turn frustrates present efforts to adjudicate whether a given theory of emotion successfully meets this challenge. I end by briefly exploring two possible ways a philosophy of emotion might proceed in the face of such scepticism

On the magnetohydrodynamic description of a two-component plasma in the Kerr metric

The magnetohydrodynamic equations describing an inviscid, fully ionized plasma in the vicinity of a rotating black hole are derived from a two-component plasma theory within the framework of the 3+1 split of the Kerr metric. Of central interest is the generalized Ohm's law. In the limit of quasi-neutral plasma it contains no new terms as compared with special relativity. Gravitomagnetic terms appear in Ohm's law only if the plasma is charged in its rest frame or the magnetohydrodynamic approximation is not applied. It is argued that a relativistic single-fluid description of a multiple-component plasma is possible only for cold (i.e. intrinsically non-relativistic) components. As seen by local stationary observers, close to the horizon the electron collision time becomes longer than dynamical timescales, i.e. the plasma appears to behave as particles.Comment: 8 pages, no figures, MNRAS, see also http://www.lsw.uni-heidelberg.de/~rkhanna/publications.htm