Measuring the effects of monetary policy in Pakistan: A factor augmented vector autoregressive approach

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy in Pakistan economy using a data rich environment. We used the Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) methodology, which contains 115 monthly variables for the period 1992:01 to 2010:12. We compare the results of VAR and FAVAR model and the results showed that FAVAR model explains the effects of monetary policy which are consistent with theory and better than VAR model. VAR model shows the existence of price puzzle and liquidity puzzle in Pakistan while FAVAR model did not provide any evidence of puzzles. FAVAR model supports the effectiveness of interest rate channel in Pakistan.Monetary Policy, VAR, FAVAR

Forecasting Hong Kong economy using factor augmented vector autoregression

This work applies the FAVAR model to forecast GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and inflation rate of the Hong Kong economy. There is no factor model forecasting literature on the Hong Kong economy. The objective is to find out whether factor forecasting of using a large dataset can improve forecast performance of the Hong Kong economy. To avoid misspecification of the number of factors in the FAVAR, combination forecasts are constructed. It is found that forecasts from FAVAR model overall outperform simple VAR and AR models, especially when forecasting horizon increases. Generally, combination forecasts solve the misspecification problem.Hong Kong; forecasting; Factor Model; Factor Augmented VAR; FAVAR

A new index of financial conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can accurately track expectations about growth in key US macroeconomic variables. Time-variation in the model’s parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the financial conditions index to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables

The credit supply channel of monetary policy: evidence from a FAVAR model with sign restrictions

We test whether the credit channel of the monetary policy was present in the United States' economy from January 2001 to April 2016. To this end, we use a factor-augmented vector autoregression, and we impose sensible theoretical sign restrictions in our structural identification scheme. We use the expected substitution effect between bank commercial loans and commercial papers to identify the credit supply channel. We found that the credit channel appears to have operated in the US economy during the sample period. However, when we split the sample, we found that the credit channel did not operate after the subprime crisis (close to the Zero Lower Bound of the interest rate). This result is robust to changing the sign restriction horizons. It supports current views in the literature regarding the ineffectiveness of the credit channel as a means to foster real economic activity during crises episodes

What are the driving factors behind the rise of spreads and CDSs of Euro-area sovereign bonds? A FAVAR model for Greece and Ireland

This paper examines the underlying dynamics of selected euro-area sovereign bonds by employing a factor-augmenting vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model for the first time in the literature. This methodology allows for identifying the underlying transmission mechanisms of several factors; in particular, market liquidity and credit risk. Departing from the classical structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models, it allows us to relax limitations regarding the choice of variables that could drive spreads and credit default swaps (CDSs) of euro-area sovereign debts. The results show that liquidity, credit risk, and flight to quality drive both spreads and CDSs of five years’ maturity over swaps for Greece and Ireland in recent years. Greece, in particular, is facing an elastic demand for its sovereign bonds that further stretches liquidity. Moreover, in current illiquid market conditions spreads will continue to follow a steep upward trend, with certain adverse financial stability implications. In addition, we observe a negative feedback effect from counterparty credit risk

Placing the Czech shadow banking sector under the light

The size of the shadow banking sector (SBS) has more than doubled in the Czech Republic over the last decade. This places a potential burden on policy makers. On the one hand, the SBS complements regular banking by expanding access to credit and investments, enabling better risk sharing and maturity transformation, and supporting market liquidity. On the other hand, SBS activities can put the stability of the financial system at risk and amplify its procyclicality by exacerbating the buildup of leverage and asset price bubbles. We implement a FAVAR model of the Czech economy to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the SBS. We find that the SBS: (i) is sensitive to changes in market interest rates and term spread; (ii) exhibits great procyclicality; (iii) can act as a complement to regular banking and satisfy some additional demand for credit. We also define some potential risks of continued growth of the SBS, linked to our empirical evidence.Web of Science29128

Debt management when monetary and fiscal policies clash: some empirical evidence

We explore the effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on key debt management variables and provide empirical evidence supporting the notion of a strict separation of economic policy from the debt management agenda. We find that a tighter monetary policy coupled with fiscal expansion increases the risk that government debt will have to be rolled over at unusually high cost. This is especially the case in a downturn, where low or even negative interest rates often provide incentives for debt managers to invest predominantly in short-term bonds. Our findings echo the post-crisis environment of low or even negative interest rates, where many debt managers altered their portfolios' structure in favor of short-term bonds. In this respect, we argue that debt managers should use a longer optimization horizon and base their strategy on the medium- and long-term economic outlook.Web of Science23128025