21,894 research outputs found
Towards parallelizable sampling-based Nonlinear Model Predictive Control
This paper proposes a new sampling-based nonlinear model predictive control
(MPC) algorithm, with a bound on complexity quadratic in the prediction horizon
N and linear in the number of samples. The idea of the proposed algorithm is to
use the sequence of predicted inputs from the previous time step as a warm
start, and to iteratively update this sequence by changing its elements one by
one, starting from the last predicted input and ending with the first predicted
input. This strategy, which resembles the dynamic programming principle, allows
for parallelization up to a certain level and yields a suboptimal nonlinear MPC
algorithm with guaranteed recursive feasibility, stability and improved cost
function at every iteration, which is suitable for real-time implementation.
The complexity of the algorithm per each time step in the prediction horizon
depends only on the horizon, the number of samples and parallel threads, and it
is independent of the measured system state. Comparisons with the fmincon
nonlinear optimization solver on benchmark examples indicate that as the
simulation time progresses, the proposed algorithm converges rapidly to the
"optimal" solution, even when using a small number of samples.Comment: 9 pages, 9 pictures, submitted to IFAC World Congress 201
On Sampling from the Gibbs Distribution with Random Maximum A-Posteriori Perturbations
In this paper we describe how MAP inference can be used to sample efficiently
from Gibbs distributions. Specifically, we provide means for drawing either
approximate or unbiased samples from Gibbs' distributions by introducing low
dimensional perturbations and solving the corresponding MAP assignments. Our
approach also leads to new ways to derive lower bounds on partition functions.
We demonstrate empirically that our method excels in the typical "high signal -
high coupling" regime. The setting results in ragged energy landscapes that are
challenging for alternative approaches to sampling and/or lower bounds
Simulation-Based Inference for Global Health Decisions
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of in-silico
epidemiological modelling in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases to
inform health policy and decision makers about suitable prevention and
containment strategies. Work in this setting involves solving challenging
inference and control problems in individual-based models of ever increasing
complexity. Here we discuss recent breakthroughs in machine learning,
specifically in simulation-based inference, and explore its potential as a
novel venue for model calibration to support the design and evaluation of
public health interventions. To further stimulate research, we are developing
software interfaces that turn two cornerstone COVID-19 and malaria epidemiology
models COVID-sim, (https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/) and OpenMalaria
(https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria) into probabilistic programs, enabling
efficient interpretable Bayesian inference within those simulators
Bayesian model predictive control: Efficient model exploration and regret bounds using posterior sampling
Tight performance specifications in combination with operational constraints
make model predictive control (MPC) the method of choice in various industries.
As the performance of an MPC controller depends on a sufficiently accurate
objective and prediction model of the process, a significant effort in the MPC
design procedure is dedicated to modeling and identification. Driven by the
increasing amount of available system data and advances in the field of machine
learning, data-driven MPC techniques have been developed to facilitate the MPC
controller design. While these methods are able to leverage available data,
they typically do not provide principled mechanisms to automatically trade off
exploitation of available data and exploration to improve and update the
objective and prediction model. To this end, we present a learning-based MPC
formulation using posterior sampling techniques, which provides finite-time
regret bounds on the learning performance while being simple to implement using
off-the-shelf MPC software and algorithms. The performance analysis of the
method is based on posterior sampling theory and its practical efficiency is
illustrated using a numerical example of a highly nonlinear dynamical
car-trailer system
A comparison of sample-based Stochastic Optimal Control methods
In this paper, we compare the performance of two scenario-based numerical
methods to solve stochastic optimal control problems: scenario trees and
particles. The problem consists in finding strategies to control a dynamical
system perturbed by exogenous noises so as to minimize some expected cost along
a discrete and finite time horizon. We introduce the Mean Squared Error (MSE)
which is the expected -distance between the strategy given by the
algorithm and the optimal strategy, as a performance indicator for the two
models. We study the behaviour of the MSE with respect to the number of
scenarios used for discretization. The first model, widely studied in the
Stochastic Programming community, consists in approximating the noise diffusion
using a scenario tree representation. On a numerical example, we observe that
the number of scenarios needed to obtain a given precision grows exponentially
with the time horizon. In that sense, our conclusion on scenario trees is
equivalent to the one in the work by Shapiro (2006) and has been widely noticed
by practitioners. However, in the second part, we show using the same example
that, by mixing Stochastic Programming and Dynamic Programming ideas, the
particle method described by Carpentier et al (2009) copes with this numerical
difficulty: the number of scenarios needed to obtain a given precision now does
not depend on the time horizon. Unfortunately, we also observe that serious
obstacles still arise from the system state space dimension
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