Prediction of severe thunderstorm events with ensemble deep learning and radar data

The problem of nowcasting extreme weather events can be addressed by applying either numerical methods for the solution of dynamic model equations or data-driven artificial intelligence algorithms. Within this latter framework, the most used techniques rely on video prediction deep learning methods which take in input time series of radar reflectivity images to predict the next future sequence of reflectivity images, from which the predicted rainfall quantities are extrapolated. Differently from the previous works, the present paper proposes a deep learning method, exploiting videos of radar reflectivity frames as input and lightning data to realize a warning machine able to sound timely alarms of possible severe thunderstorm events. The problem is recast in a classification one in which the extreme events to be predicted are characterized by a an high level of precipitation and lightning density. From a technical viewpoint, the computational core of this approach is an ensemble learning method based on the recently introduced value-weighted skill scores for both transforming the probabilistic outcomes of the neural network into binary predictions and assessing the forecasting performance. Such value-weighted skill scores are particularly suitable for binary predictions performed over time since they take into account the time evolution of events and predictions paying attention to the value of the prediction for the forecaster. The result of this study is a warning machine validated against weather radar data recorded in the Liguria region, in Italy

PyRCN: A Toolbox for Exploration and Application of Reservoir Computing Networks

Reservoir Computing Networks belong to a group of machine learning techniques that project the input space non-linearly into a high-dimensional feature space, where the underlying task can be solved linearly. Popular variants of RCNs, e.g.\ Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs), Echo State Networks (ESNs) and Liquid State Machines (LSMs) are capable of solving complex tasks equivalently to widely used deep neural networks, but with a substantially simpler training paradigm based on linear regression. In this paper, we introduce the Python toolbox PyRCN (Python Reservoir Computing Networks) for optimizing, training and analyzing Reservoir Computing Networks (RCNs) on arbitrarily large datasets. The tool is based on widely-used scientific packages, such as numpy and scipy and complies with the scikit-learn interface specification. It provides a platform for educational and exploratory analyses of RCNs, as well as a framework to apply RCNs on complex tasks including sequence processing. With only a small number of basic components, the framework allows the implementation of a vast number of different RCN architectures. We provide extensive code examples on how to set up RCNs for a time series prediction and for a sequence classification task.Comment: Preprint submitted to Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligenc

Examination and utilization of rare features in text classification of injury narratives

Thanks to the advances in computing and information technology, analyzing injury surveillance data with statistical machine learning methods has grown in popularity, complexity, and quality over recent years. During that same time, researchers have recognized the limitations of statistical text analysis with limited training data. In response to the two primary challenges for statistical text analysis, dimensionality reduction and sparse data, many studies have focused on improving machine learning algorithms. Less research has been done, though, to examine and improve statistical machine learning methods in text classification from a linguistic perspective. This study addresses this research gap by examining the importance of extreme-frequency words in classifying injury narratives. The results indicate that adhering to the common practice of removing frequently-occurring prepositions from the text significantly decreased the classification performance for certain categories. Removing low-frequency words significantly improved the classification performance for Multinomial Naive Bayes (MNB), helped alleviate the problem of overfitting small categories for Logistical Regression (LR), but did not have any significant effect for Support Vector Machine (SVM). As a way to utilize low-frequency words, classic word normalization or grouping methods such as stemming and lemmatization are often used in the text preprocessing stage. Despite their popularity, these classic grouping methods are not without limitations. The proposed Type M+S Word Grouping Method groups rare and unseen words morphologically and semantically automatically using unlabeled data. Several experiments were conducted for evaluating the grouping effect for three classifiers (MNB, SVM, LR) in three train-test scenarios (1:9, 1:1, 9:1) on injury surveillance data with a half-million narratives classified into 30 external cause categories. The experimental results show that the proposed method optionally paired with three add-on methods (two-word sequence tagging, reviewed tagging, Naive Bayes-weighted classifier) resulted in better classification performance as compared to stemming and lemmatization. The overall classification performance for small categories with limited training data was improved for MNB (5.5%), SVM (4%), and LR (11.2%) to an extent comparable to increasing the size of the labeled training set by a factor of 3.6 for MNB, 2.3 for SVM, and 5.2 for LR. Some improvement was also observed for medium-sized categories (1.7%) while performance on large categories remained nearly unchanged (0.1%). The overall results advance the conclusion that the proposed method of decision support is a promising approach for incorporating expert knowledge that improves machine learning for classifying injury narratives with reduced manual effort. The results also suggest that simply increasing the size of a training dataset would not result in the level of performance that the proposed method can achieve because of the inherent limitations of linear classifiers to acquire fundamental concepts and classification rules from the narrative that human experts know by definitions of injuries