Is there a Moore's law for quantum computing?

There is a common wisdom according to which many technologies can progress according to some exponential law like the empirical Moore's law that was validated for over half a century with the growth of transistors number in chipsets. As a still in the making technology with a lot of potential promises, quantum computing is supposed to follow the pack and grow inexorably to maturity. The Holy Grail in that domain is a large quantum computer with thousands of errors corrected logical qubits made themselves of thousands, if not more, of physical qubits. These would enable molecular simulations as well as factoring 2048 RSA bit keys among other use cases taken from the intractable classical computing problems book. How far are we from this? Less than 15 years according to many predictions. We will see in this paper that Moore's empirical law cannot easily be translated to an equivalent in quantum computing. Qubits have various figures of merit that won't progress magically thanks to some new manufacturing technique capacity. However, some equivalents of Moore's law may be at play inside and outside the quantum realm like with quantum computers enabling technologies, cryogeny and control electronics. Algorithms, software tools and engineering also play a key role as enablers of quantum computing progress. While much of quantum computing future outcomes depends on qubit fidelities, it is progressing rather slowly, particularly at scale. We will finally see that other figures of merit will come into play and potentially change the landscape like the quality of computed results and the energetics of quantum computing. Although scientific and technological in nature, this inventory has broad business implications, on investment, education and cybersecurity related decision-making processes.Comment: 32 pages, 24 figure

AHP analysis of classifying and positioning the crucial influential factors of brand establishment in the semiconductor industry

Abstract. This study categorizes the crucial influencing factors and positions them according to their importance in achieving the impact of semiconductor brand establishment on improving corporate performance and meeting customer needs. This study conducted an in-depth literature review that recognizes the crucial factors necessary for implementing influence in establishing a semiconductor brand. This study identifies five main variables and 17 subvariables, including “Customer value”, “Brand equity”, “Brand loyalty”, “Brand orientation” and “Brand performance”, and provides experts’ suggestions. The positioning of 17 subvariables and 5 main variables representing crucial influential factors was performed using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique per their relevance in crucial influential factor implementation. The results show that 5 main variables and 17 subvariables play a vital role in the successful implementationof the impact of establishing a semiconductor brand, and  “Customer value” has gained more weight compared to the other main variables. ‘Addressing problem’, ‘Superior value’ and ‘New product development’ are more important than are other subvariables. The limitation of this study is that, first, although this study consults experts from the semiconductor industry and academia of various countries, their opinions are only relevant to their regions. Second, the development of this model only applies to the semiconductor industry. Third, only expert opinion variables were used for pairwise comparisons. This study compensates for the lack of key factors in establishing a semiconductor brand, using the literature and expert questionnaires to obtain the weight of each factor through the AHP method and ranking them in order of importance. It examines the overall situation of the practice of building brand comprehension, missing no factor, understanding where the key points areand using them effectively. This research advances the implementation focus of the key factors that affect the establishment of semiconductor brands. According to the results of the literature review, this study is the first on implementing key factors affecting the establishment of a semiconductor brand. This study attempts to fill this gap.Keywords. Crucial influential factors, Establishing semiconductor brand, AHP.JEL. C44, M21, M31, D81, L29

What Firms Make vs. What They Know: How Firms\u27 Production and Knowledge Boundaries Affect Competitive Advantage in the Face of Technological Change

Product innovation often hinges on technological changes in underlying components and architectures, requiring extensive coordination between upstream component development tasks and downstream product development tasks. We explore how differences in the ways in which firms are organized with respect to components affect their ability to manage technological change. We consider how firms are organized in terms of both division of labor and division of knowledge. We categorize product innovations according to whether they are enabled by changes in components or by changes in architectures. We test our predictions in the context of the global dynamic random access memory industry from 1974 to 2005, during which it transitioned through 12 distinct product generations. We find that vertically integrated firms had, on average, a faster time to market for new product generations than nonintegrated firms. The performance benefit that firms derived from vertical integration was greater when the new product generation was enabled by architectural change than when it was enabled by component change. We also find that although many nonintegrated firms extended their knowledge boundaries by developing knowledge of outsourced components, the performance benefits from such knowledge mostly accrued to “fully nonintegrated” firms (i.e., those that did not vertically integrate into any upstream component), rather than “partially integrated” firms (i.e., those that vertically integrated into some components but not others). Our study makes a strong case for the value of integrating the knowledge- and governance-based theoretical perspectives to broaden our examination of how firms organize for innovation and to uncover the technological and organizational sources of performance heterogeneity

Dynamics of High-Technology Firms in the Silicon Valley

The pace of technological innovation since World War II is dramatically accelerating following the commercial exploitation of the Internet. Since the mid 90’s fiber optics capacity (infrastructure for transmission of information including voice and data) has incremented over one hundred times thanks to a new technology, dense wave division multiplexing, and Internet traffic has increased over 1.000 times. The dramatic advances in information technology provide excellent examples of the critical relevance of the knowledge in the development of competitive advantages. The Silicon Valley (SV) that about fifty years ago was an agricultural region became the center of dramatic technological and organizational transformations. In fact, most of the present high-tech companies did not exist twenty years ago. Venture capital contribution to the local economy is quite important not only due to the magnitude of the financial investment (venture investment in SV during 2000 surpassed 25.000 millions of dollars) but also because the extent and quality of networks (management teams, senior employees, customers, providers, etc.) that bring to emerging companies. How do new technologies develop? What is the role of private and public investment in the financing of R&D? Which are the most dynamical agents and how do they interact? How are new companies created and how do they evolve? The discussion of these questions is the focus of the current work.Technological development, R&D, networks

Process based cost modeling of emerging optoelectronic interconnects : implications for material platform choice

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2008.Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-96).Continuously increasing demand for processing power, storage capacity, and I/O capacity in personal computing, data network, and display interface suggests that optical interconnects may soon supplant copper not only for long distance telecommunication but also for short reach connection needs. In the search for a standard, the current debate in the optoelectronic industry is focused on the technical and economic challenges of the next generation interconnect. Technological advances over the past few years have given new strength to a silicon-technology platform for optoelectronics. The possibility of extending a mature and high-yield Si CMOS manufacturing platform of the electronic industry into the optical domain is an area of intensive interest. Introducing new photonic materials and processes into the mature electronic industry involves a convergence of knowledge between the optoelectronics and semiconductor IC manufacturers. To address some of the technical, market, and organizational uncertainties with the Si platform, this research explores the economic viability and operational hurdles of manufacturing a 1310 nm, 100G Ethernet LAN transceiver. This analysis is carried out using the process-based cost modeling method. Four transceiver designs ranging from the most discrete to a high level of integration are considered on both InP and Si platforms. On the macro-level, this research also explores possible electronic-photonic convergence across industries through a multi-organization, exploratory roadmapping effort. Results have shown 1) integration provides a cost advantage within each material platform.(cont.) This economic competitiveness is due to cost savings associated with the elimination of discrete components and assembly steps; 2) a total cost comparison across material platforms indicates at low volume (less than 1.1 million annual units), the InP material platform is preferred, while at high volume (greater than 3 million annual units) the Si material platform is preferred. Furthermore, this study maps out the production cost at each technology and volume projection, and then compares this cost with price expectation to determine the viability of the transceiver market in the datacom and computing industry. Results indicate that annual production volumes must be in the tens of millions unit range to provide the minimum economies of scale necessary for designs to meet the trigger price. These results highlight that standards and a set of common language are essential to enable converging technology markets.by Shan Liu.S.M

Formation and characterization of n/p shallow junctions in sub-micron MOSFETs

Semiconductors are the burgeoning industries in today\u27s information age. Silicon based microelectronic devices are shrinking day-by-day in accord with the scaling dimensions reported by the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS). There have been many semiconductor models and simulation programs constantly keeping pace with the continuously evolving scaling dimensions, process technology, performance and cost. Electrical characterization plays a vital role in determining the electrical properties of materials and device structures. Silicon based Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor (MOSFET) forms the basis of Complimentary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) circuits. Today\u27s aggressive scaling approaches in silicon Integrated Circuit (IC) technology require ultra shallow junctions in MOSFETs. The objective of this thesis is to study the leakage current in n/p shallow junctions and to correlate them with process steps required for the formation of shallow junctions. The leakage current measurements were performed by utilizing three-point probe method, which is one of the popular techniques used in the semiconductor industry. Apart from n/p shallow junctions, experiments have been performed on p/n shallow junctions. Finally, comparison of the leakage current measurements has been made. The comparison takes into account the implant variables and post-implant annealing steps that have been deployed in the fabrication of shallow junctions

Value Creation in Innovation Ecosystems: How the Structure of Technological Interdependence Affects Firm Performance in New Technology Generations

The success of an innovating firm often depends on the efforts of other innovators in its environment. How do the challenges faced by external innovators affect the focal firm\u27s outcomes? To address this question we first characterize the external environment according to the structure of interdependence. We follow the flow of inputs and outputs in the ecosystem to distinguish between upstream components that are bundled by the focal firm, and downstream complements that are bundled by the firm\u27s customers. We hypothesize that the effects of external innovation challenges depend not only on their magnitude, but also on their location in the ecosystem relative to the focal firm. We identify a key asymmetry that results from the location of challenges relative to a focal firm—greater upstream innovation challenges in components enhance the benefits that accrue to technology leaders, while greater downstream innovation challenges in complements erode these benefits. We further propose that the effectiveness of vertical integration as a strategy to manage ecosystem interdependence increases over the course of the technology life cycle. We explore these arguments in the context of the global semiconductor lithography equipment industry from its emergence in 1962 to 2005 across nine distinct technology generations. We find strong empirical support for our framework

Synthesis and characterization of low pressure chemically vapor deposited boron nitride and titanium nitride films

This study has investigated the interrelationships governing the growth kinetics, resulting compositions, and properties of boron nitride (B-C-N-H) and titanium nitride (Ti-N-Cl) films synthesized by low pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD) using ammonia (NH3)/triethylamine-borane and NH3/titanium tetrachloride as reactants, respectively.Several analytical methods such as the FTIR, UVNisible spectroscopy, XPS, AES, RBS, SEM, and XRD were used to study the stoichiometry and structure of the deposited films. The B-N-C-H films were synthesized over a temperature range of 300 to 8500C at various flow rate ratios of the reactants and total pressure range of 50 to 150 mTorr. The deposits were amorphous in all cases having an index of refraction ranging between 1.76 and 2.47 depending on the composition of the films. The stress of the deposited films varied from +240 to -200 Wa, depending on the deposition parameters. The hardness and Young\u27s modulus were found to be between 5 to 12 GPa and 50 to 120 GPa, respectively. Electrical properties of the BN films were measured using metal-insulator-metal (MIM) and metal-insulator-semiconductor (MIS) structures. The films did not react with water vapor and exhibited dielectric constant between 3.12 and 5.5. Free standing X-ray windows with thickness varying from 2000Å to 12,000Å, were fabricated using the mildly tensile and compressive films and X-ray transmission studies through these windows indicate significantly lower absorption when compared to the commercially available polymeric X-ray windows. The Ti-N-Cl deposits exhibited an Arrhenius d ependence in the deposition temperature regime of 450 to 600 °C from which an activation energy of ~42 kJ/mol was calculated. The growth rate dependencies on the partial pressures of NH3 (50 to 100 mTorr) and TiC14 (1 to 12 mTorr) yielded reaction rate orders of 1.37 and -0.42 respectively. Films with compositions trending towards stoichiometry were produced as the deposition temperature was decreased and the NH3 partial pressure was increased. The chlorine concentration in the films was observed to decrease from ~8 % (a/o) at the deposition temperature of 450 °C down to ~0.2 % (a/o) at 850 °C. The film density values increased from 3.53 to 5.02 g/cm3 as the deposition temperature was increased from 550 to 850 °C. The resistivity of the films was dependent on changes in deposition temperature and flow rate ratios. The lowest resistivity value of 86 µΩcm was measured for a deposition temperature of 600°C and an NH3/TiCl4 flow ratio of 10/1. The film stress was found to be tensile for all deposits and to decrease with higher deposition temperatures. Nanoindentation measurements yielded values for the hardness and Young\u27s modulus of the films to be around 15 and 250 GPa, respectively. X-ray diffraction measurements revealed in all cases the presence of cubic TiN phase with a preferred (200) orientation. For the investigated aspect ratios of up to 4: 1, the deposits were observed to exhibit conformal step coverage over the investigated range of processing conditions

Commercial applications of nanostructures created with ordered porous alumina

Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 82-86).In the drive from microfabrication to nanofabrication, porous alumina templates may play a key role in technological evolution. Under the right processing conditions, ordered pores can grow in anodic aluminum oxide, which is a high strength, thermally and electrically insulating material. There are many potential applications for porous alumina templates, ranging from the simple fabrication of nanostructure arrays to the more complex processing of components for end-user products such as nano-integrated circuits and gas sensors. Porous alumina templates can also be processed to have long-range pore ordering on an entire twelve-inch silicon wafer, which may be of unique benefit to processes requiring such pore precision, such as parallel electron beam lithography. The high aspect ratios which can be attained through porous alumina template technology may also offer unique advantages in applications such as field-emission-based devices. As a durable high strength material, porous alumina templates are not limited by extreme process conditions, further extending the reach of their application. The vast array of applications allows the technology to be financially attractive inside business models ranging from sustaining to disruptive innovation. Porous alumina template technology has the necessary multitude and diversity of attributes to play a crucial role in the future of nanotechnology.by Brendan Christopher Wells.M.Eng