China's Ties with Southeast Asia : From Green Shoots to Sustained Recovery

China's rebound happened relatively quickly owing to a large extent to timely macroeconomic policy responses to the crisis. Lagging somewhat behind China, most Southeast Asian countries have now entered the transition from recession to recovery. Some export-dependent Southeast Asian countries shifted their export destination to China to benefit from its early recovery. This switch of export destination to China illustrates China's important role in leading the recovery of the region. Enhancing regional macroeconomic co-operation would help reduce vulnerability of the region and ensure a sustained recovery. Regional macroeconomic co-operation remains at an early stage in Southeast Asia, but possibilities for further co-operation should be explored.

Financial Vulnerability and Export Dynamics

Etudes & documentsThis study documents the implications of financial vulnerability for export diversification in developing economies. Financial crises, by increasing the incidence of sunk costs of entry into exporting, reduce firm export dynamics. Financially-vulnerable exporters are not able to fully realize economies of scale in production and access better-sophisticated technologies. The number of products and destinations per exporter are therefore likely to decrease in times of crisis. We use a comprehensive cross-country dataset on export dynamics, with data covering the 1997-2011 period for 34 developing countries to investigate this issue. Building on the generalized difference-in-differences procedure proposed by Rajan & Zingales (1998) to remove any endogeneity bias, the results point to a negative and economically large effect of financial vulnerability on export diversification.Financial crises reduce export dynamics disproportionately more in financially dependent industries. This effect is less pronounced in countries with initially more open capital account, suggesting that portfolio inflows are good substitutes for underdeveloped domestic financial markets

Virtual water controlled demographic growth of nations

Population growth is in general constrained by food production, which in turn depends on the access to water resources. At a country level, some populations use more water than they control because of their ability to import food and the virtual water required for its production. Here, we investigate the dependence of demographic growth on available water resources for exporting and importing nations. By quantifying the carrying capacity of nations based on calculations of the virtual water available through the food trade network, we point to the existence of a global water unbalance. We suggest that current export rates will not be maintained and consequently we question the long-run sustainability of the food trade system as a whole. Water rich regions are likely to soon reduce the amount of virtual water they export, thus leaving import-dependent regions without enough water to sustain their populations. We also investigate the potential impact of possible scenarios that might mitigate these effects through (1) cooperative interactions among nations whereby water rich countries maintain a tiny fraction of their food production available for export; (2) changes in consumption patterns; and (3) a positive feedback between demographic growth and technological innovations. We find that these strategies may indeed reduce the vulnerability of water-controlled societies.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure

Green Services and Emergence and Recovery from the Global Economic Slowdown in Developing Asian Economies

The global economic slowdown has again highlighted the vulnerability of export-led development models and economies to downturns in export markets. Economic deepening or “rebalancing” with an emphasis on service-sector development should be—and is becoming—one long-term response to the crisis by Asia's emerging economies. In the long run, sustainable economic development will depend in part on achieving a “green” trajectory of service sector development, in which services help green the “product economy.” In the short run, however, can services help address short- and medium-term challenges of emergence and recovery from the crisis—particularly those of at least resuming historic rates of poverty alleviation and inclusive growth? Meeting these challenges will require that export sectors deal successfully with challenging market conditions. There is a class of closely related business-to-business services which act to green the product economy, and which would improve the competitiveness of export sectors and husband scarce public resources by optimizing the efficiency of infrastructure utilization. These are functional procurement/efficiency services, which transform procurement of environmentally problematic goods and services—such as waste disposal, energy, chemicals, and transport—into performance-based services in which service providers profit by increasing the customer's eco-efficiency. Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) are the best-known of these service models. These services appear to have strong potential among the larger, more sophisticated institutions and commercial and industrial enterprises in developing Asian states, particularly in Asia's more advanced developing economies.green service sector; energy service companies asia

Green Services and Emergence and Recovery from the Global Economic Slowdown in Developing Asian Economies

The global economic slowdown has again highlighted the vulnerability of export-led development models and economies to downturns in export markets. Economic deepening or rebalancing with an emphasis on service-sector development should beand is becomingone long-term response to the crisis by Asias emerging economies. In the long run, sustainable economic development will depend in part on achieving a green trajectory of service sector development, in which services help green the product economy. In the short run, however, can services help address short- and medium-term challenges of emergence and recovery from the crisisparticularly those of at least resuming historic rates of poverty alleviation and inclusive growth? Meeting these challenges will require that export sectors deal successfully with challenging market conditions. There is a class of closely related business-to-business services which act to green the product economy, and which would improve the competitiveness of export sectors and husband scarce public resources by optimizing the efficiency of infrastructure utilization. These are functional procurement/efficiency services, which transform procurement of environmentally problematic goods and servicessuch as waste disposal, energy, chemicals, and transportinto performance-based services in which service providers profit by increasing the customers eco-efficiency. Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) are the best-known of these service models. These services appear to have strong potential among the larger, more sophisticated institutions and commercial and industrial enterprises in developing Asian states, particularly in Asias more advanced developing economies.global economic slowdown, export-led development models, sustainable economic development, Energy Service Companies, Asia

Water Scarcity in the Zambezi Basin in the Long-Term Future: A Risk Assessment

The aim of this paper is to explore possible futures for the Zambezi basin and to estimate the risks of different water management strategies. Existing uncertainties are translated into alternative assumptions. The risk of a certain management strategy, which has been developed under a given set of assumptions, is analysed by applying alternative assumptions. For the exploration of possible futures, a dynamic simulation model is used. Three ‘utopias’ and a number of ‘dystopias’ are considered. A utopia is based on a coherent set of assumptions with respect to world-view (how does the world function), management style (how do people respond) and context (exogenous developments). A dystopia evolves if some assumptions are taken differently. Using the risk assessment method described, the paper reflects on the water policy priorities earlier proposed in an expert meeting held in Harare. It is shown that in only one out of the nine cases putting the ‘Harare priorities’ into practice will work out effectively and without large tradeoffs. It is concluded that minimising risks would require a radical shift from supply towards demand policy.\u

Impacts of climate change and variability on fish value chains in Uganda

This study examines the vulnerability of fish pr oduction in Uganda, particularly as it r elates to the predicted impacts from climate change, using the concept of the value chain. The value chain approach has been recommended as a useful tool to study specific challenges facing a sector resulting from various drivers of change, including climate. Critically, such analyses can reveal context-specific response strategies to enhance a sector (Jacinto and Pomer oy 2010). The specific purpose of the study was to identify curr ent and potential impacts of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies in fish value chains. The study builds upon information fr om earlier value chain analyses on fisheries and aquaculture production in Uganda to provide a more in-depth understanding of issues facing the fish industry, in particular, those to be incorporated in the CGIAR Resear ch Program Livestock and Fish

Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?

China did not succumb to the Asian crisis of 1997-99, despite two apparent sources of vulnerability: a weak financial system and increased export competition from the Asian crisis economies. This article argues that both sources of vulnerability were more apparent than real. China's experience (especially its use of capital controls) does not offer a blueprint for other countries, because other countries would not want to replicate China's inefficient, non-market-oriented financial system.Banks and banking - China ; Economic conditions - China ; China

Pacific Island food security: situation, challenges and opportunities

In recent years, there have been large and rapid increases in the prices of basic foods worldwide. Pacific island countries have not been isolated from the global food 'crisis'. This article shows that there are substantial differences in the impacts within and between Pacific island countries. To be effective and not counterproductive, policy and donor responses need to be tailored accordingly. This article recommends a combination of measures directed at mitigating the threats and empowering rural people to take advantage of the opportunities