Probabilistic Numerics and Uncertainty in Computations

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data has led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimisers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.Comment: Author Generated Postprint. 17 pages, 4 Figures, 1 Tabl

Batch Policy Learning under Constraints

When learning policies for real-world domains, two important questions arise: (i) how to efficiently use pre-collected off-policy, non-optimal behavior data; and (ii) how to mediate among different competing objectives and constraints. We thus study the problem of batch policy learning under multiple constraints, and offer a systematic solution. We first propose a flexible meta-algorithm that admits any batch reinforcement learning and online learning procedure as subroutines. We then present a specific algorithmic instantiation and provide performance guarantees for the main objective and all constraints. To certify constraint satisfaction, we propose a new and simple method for off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) and derive PAC-style bounds. Our algorithm achieves strong empirical results in different domains, including in a challenging problem of simulated car driving subject to multiple constraints such as lane keeping and smooth driving. We also show experimentally that our OPE method outperforms other popular OPE techniques on a standalone basis, especially in a high-dimensional setting

A Modern Introduction to Online Learning

In this monograph, I introduce the basic concepts of Online Learning through a modern view of Online Convex Optimization. Here, online learning refers to the framework of regret minimization under worst-case assumptions. I present first-order and second-order algorithms for online learning with convex losses, in Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings. All the algorithms are clearly presented as instantiation of Online Mirror Descent or Follow-The-Regularized-Leader and their variants. Particular attention is given to the issue of tuning the parameters of the algorithms and learning in unbounded domains, through adaptive and parameter-free online learning algorithms. Non-convex losses are dealt through convex surrogate losses and through randomization. The bandit setting is also briefly discussed, touching on the problem of adversarial and stochastic multi-armed bandits. These notes do not require prior knowledge of convex analysis and all the required mathematical tools are rigorously explained. Moreover, all the proofs have been carefully chosen to be as simple and as short as possible.Comment: Fixed more typos, added more history bits, added local norms bounds for OMD and FTR

A Multi-Plane Block-Coordinate Frank-Wolfe Algorithm for Training Structural SVMs with a Costly max-Oracle

Structural support vector machines (SSVMs) are amongst the best performing models for structured computer vision tasks, such as semantic image segmentation or human pose estimation. Training SSVMs, however, is computationally costly, because it requires repeated calls to a structured prediction subroutine (called \emph{max-oracle}), which has to solve an optimization problem itself, e.g. a graph cut. In this work, we introduce a new algorithm for SSVM training that is more efficient than earlier techniques when the max-oracle is computationally expensive, as it is frequently the case in computer vision tasks. The main idea is to (i) combine the recent stochastic Block-Coordinate Frank-Wolfe algorithm with efficient hyperplane caching, and (ii) use an automatic selection rule for deciding whether to call the exact max-oracle or to rely on an approximate one based on the cached hyperplanes. We show experimentally that this strategy leads to faster convergence to the optimum with respect to the number of requires oracle calls, and that this translates into faster convergence with respect to the total runtime when the max-oracle is slow compared to the other steps of the algorithm. A publicly available C++ implementation is provided at http://pub.ist.ac.at/~vnk/papers/SVM.html

Batch Bayesian Optimization via Local Penalization

The popularity of Bayesian optimization methods for efficient exploration of parameter spaces has lead to a series of papers applying Gaussian processes as surrogates in the optimization of functions. However, most proposed approaches only allow the exploration of the parameter space to occur sequentially. Often, it is desirable to simultaneously propose batches of parameter values to explore. This is particularly the case when large parallel processing facilities are available. These facilities could be computational or physical facets of the process being optimized. E.g. in biological experiments many experimental set ups allow several samples to be simultaneously processed. Batch methods, however, require modeling of the interaction between the evaluations in the batch, which can be expensive in complex scenarios. We investigate a simple heuristic based on an estimate of the Lipschitz constant that captures the most important aspect of this interaction (i.e. local repulsion) at negligible computational overhead. The resulting algorithm compares well, in running time, with much more elaborate alternatives. The approach assumes that the function of interest, $f$, is a Lipschitz continuous function. A wrap-loop around the acquisition function is used to collect batches of points of certain size minimizing the non-parallelizable computational effort. The speed-up of our method with respect to previous approaches is significant in a set of computationally expensive experiments.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figure