From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Exploiting Data Mining Techniques For Improving the Efficiency of Time Series Data

The research work in data mining has achieved a high attraction due to the importance of its applications This paper addresses some theoretical and practical aspects on Exploiting Data Mining Techniques for Improving the Efficiency of Time Series Data using SPSS-CLEMENTINE. This paper can be helpful for an organization or individual when choosing proper software to meet their mining needs. In this paper, we propose utilizes the famous data mining software SPSS Clementine to mine the factors that affect information from various vantage points and analyse that information. However the purpose of this paper is to review the selected software for data mining for improving efficiency of time series data. Data mining techniques is the exploration and analysis of data in order to discover useful information from huge databases. So it is used to analyse a large audit data efficiently for Improving the Efficiency of Time Series Data. SPSS- Clementine is object-oriented, extended module interface, which allows users to add their own algorithms and utilities to Clementine’s visual programming environment. The overall objective of this research is to develop high performance data mining algorithms and tools that will provide support required to analyse the massive data sets generated by various processes that is used for predicting time series data using SPSS- Clementine. The aim of this paper is to determine the feasibility and effectiveness of data mining techniques in time series data and produce solutions for this purpose

From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c