Exploiting Qualitative Information for Decision Support in Scenario Analysis

The development of scenario analysis (SA) to assist decision makers and stakeholders has been growing over the last few years through mainly exploiting qualitative information provided by experts. In this study, we present SA based on the use of qualitative data for strategy planning. We discuss the potential of SA as a decision-support tool, and provide a structured approach for the interpretation of SA data, and an empirical validation of expert evaluations that can help to measure the consistency of the analysis. An application to a specific case study is provided, with reference to the European organic farming business

Architecture of Environmental Risk Modelling: for a faster and more robust response to natural disasters

Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning spatially-explicit information and modelling and their multiple sources of uncertainty. Geospatial support is one of the forms of assistance frequently required by emergency response centres along with hazard forecast and event management assessment. Robust modelling of natural hazards requires dynamic simulations under an array of multiple inputs from different sources. Uncertainty is associated with meteorological forecast and calibration of the model parameters. Software uncertainty also derives from the data transformation models (D-TM) needed for predicting hazard behaviour and its consequences. On the other hand, social contributions have recently been recognized as valuable in raw-data collection and mapping efforts traditionally dominated by professional organizations. Here an architecture overview is proposed for adaptive and robust modelling of natural hazards, following the Semantic Array Programming paradigm to also include the distributed array of social contributors called Citizen Sensor in a semantically-enhanced strategy for D-TM modelling. The modelling architecture proposes a multicriteria approach for assessing the array of potential impacts with qualitative rapid assessment methods based on a Partial Open Loop Feedback Control (POLFC) schema and complementing more traditional and accurate a-posteriori assessment. We discuss the computational aspect of environmental risk modelling using array-based parallel paradigms on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, in order for the implications of urgency to be introduced into the systems (Urgent-HPC).Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure, 1 text box, presented at the 3rd Conference of Computational Interdisciplinary Sciences (CCIS 2014), Asuncion, Paragua

Water for People, Water for Life

This report documents the serious water crisis we are facing at the beginning of the 21st century. This crisis is one of water governance, essentially caused by the ways in which we mismanage water. But the real tragedy is the effect it has on the everyday lives of poor people, who are blighted by the burden of water-related disease, living in degraded and often dangerous environments, struggling to get an education for their children and to earn a living, and to get enough to eat. The executive summary offers an analysis of the problem as well as pilot case studies for water management and recommendations for future action

NASYP: Online expert tool on the control of major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances

NASYP is an online Geoportal tool being developed in cooperation with state and regional authorities to improve insufficient practices based on implementation of Directive nr. 2003/105/ES on the control of major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances. The tool is applicable for managing the permits, reporting and regular monitoring issues. Furthermore, it’s applicable for a risk assessment and a rapid management of disasters in the initial phase. There’re simple modeling tools included to simulate early stages of the contamination caused by disasters occurred to be used for decision making and effective use of emergency services. In this manner, there’re low atmospheric and surface water pollutions taken into account. For the study area, Liberec region was chosen covering the area of 3,163km2 and containing 533 potentially dangerous objects categorized accordingly to the Directive nr. 2003/105/ES. The model simulations are responding to daily hydrological and meteorological situation, a capability of automated updates from databases operated by the Czech Hydro Meteorological Institute, and communicate with databases of substances operated by the regional authorities. NASYP is suitable especially for the “N†class of the operators defined in the Directive, where because of smaller amounts of stored dangerous substances the safety measures and regular inspections are limited.Spatial data, geoportal, risk management, modelling, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty, GA, IN,

Low carbon development, poverty reduction and innovation system building

There is an apparent contradiction between inclusive development and low carbon development, as it seems that in order to give people access to electric energy, it is necessary to employ widely used 'old' technologies, instead of investing in innovations that may be less productive at first. However, the paper defends that there are synergies between pro-poor growth and low carbon technologies. In order for poor countries to benefit from the use of such technologies, it is essential for them to build capabilities and ensure an adequate level of absorptive capacity. This involves not only market mechanisms, but also policy interventions, public and private resources, as well as an active participation of local actors. Moreover, besides investing financial resources in innovative activities for low carbon development, it is necessary to invest adequate time for the outcomes to flourish. The authors criticize the current policies for LCD in developing countries. It is argued that an exaggerated emphasis is given to the hardware element, in detriment of the software element of innovations (socio-technologies, tacit knowledge). Moreover, the mechanism of CDM is largely employed, however it places emphasis in profiting from reducing carbon emissions, and therefore is not concerned with developing local capabilities and innovation systems. The paper presents the case of the introduction and development of SHS (Solar Home Systems) market in Kenya. In short, the first PV panels were introduced by a volunteer of the Peace Corps in his private home, in 1985. He had prior working experience in the solar energy industry in the USA. After the installation of another panel in a local school, locals became interested in having the solar technology in their homes. This lead to the foundation of Energy Alternatives Africa (EAA), a company that pioneered the development of solar technologies by using resources from donor agencies. This company became an important player in the local market. It was not until recently that the Kenyan government became interested in supporting this technology