Explanatory Indispensability and Deliberative Indispensability: Against Enoch's Analogy

In this note, I discuss David Enoch's influential deliberative indispensability argument for metanormative realism, and contend that the argument fails. In doing so, I uncover an important disanalogy between explanatory indispensability arguments and deliberative indispensability arguments, one that explains how we could accept the former without accepting the latter

A forward demeaning transformation for a dynamic count panel data model

In this note, a forward demeaning transformation is proposed for the linear feedback model with the explanatory variables being strictly exogenous on count panel data. This transformation is analogous to that proposed by Arellano and Bover (1995) for the ordinary dynamic panel data model.forward demeaning; linear feedback model; strictly exogenous explanatory variables; count panel data

Predictive Non-equilibrium Social Science

Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of NESS, occupying a central role in its scientific inquiry and representing a key activity of practitioners in domains such as economics, public policy, and national security. We begin by clarifying the distinction between models which are useful for prediction and the much more common explanatory models studied in the social sciences. We then investigate a challenging real-world predictive analysis case study, and find evidence that the poor performance of standard prediction methods does not indicate an absence of human predictability but instead reflects (1.) incorrect assumptions concerning the predictive utility of explanatory models, (2.) misunderstanding regarding which features of social dynamics actually possess predictive power, and (3.) practical difficulties exploiting predictive representations.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1212.680

MNC Staffing policies for the managing director position in foreign subsidiaries : the results of an innovative research method

This research note draws the attention to the harmful consequence of a serious lack of empirical research in the field of International Human Resource Management: myth-building on the basis of one or two publications. The apparent myth of high expatriate failure rates is shortly discussed. To prevent another myth from appearing, this time in the field of staffing policies, this research note provides an empirical test of the framework proposed by Meredith Downes (1996) for making decisions about staffing foreign subsidiaries. The propositions set forward by Downes are tested using a database of nearly 1800 subsidiaries located in twenty-two different countries. Headquarters of these subsidiaries are located in nine different countries and operate in eight different industries. Although the variables suggested by Downes have a fair explanatory power, some of the specific propositions had to be rejected.management and organization theory ;

The time travel paradox

We define the time travel paradox in physical terms and prove its existence by constructing an explicit example. We argue further that in theories -- such as general relativity -- where the spacetime geometry is subject to nothing but differential equations and initial data no paradoxes arise.Comment: Minor changes + an explanatory note concerning the lions with the same world line

Effects of Explanatory Variables in Count Data Moving Average Models

This note gives dynamic effects of discrete and continuous explanatory variables for count data or integer-valued moving average models. An illustration based on a model for the number of transactions in a stock is included.INMA model; Marginal effect; Intra-day; Financial data

Neutrino Sources and Properties

In this lecture, prepared for PhD students, basic considerations on neutrino interactions, properties and sites of production are overviewed. The detailed content is as follows: Sect. 1, Weak interactions and neutrinos: Fermi coupling; definition of neutrinos; global numbers. Sect. 2, A list of neutrino sources: Explanatory note and examples (solar pp- and supernova-neutrinos). Sect. 3, Neutrinos oscillations: Basic formalism (Pontecorvo); matter effect (Mikheev, Smirnov, Wolfenstein); status of neutrino masses and mixings. Sect. 4, Modifying the standard model to include neutrinos masses: The fermions of the standard model; one additional operator in the standard model (Weinberg); implications. One summary table and several exercises offer the students occasions to check, consolidate and extend their understanding; the brief reference list includes historical and review papers and some entry points to active research in neutrino physics.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, 1 summary tabl