AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs

This report is the latest in a sustained effort throughout 2014 by the Pew Research Center's Internet Project to mark the 25th anniversary of the creation of the World Wide Web by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (The Web at 25).The report covers experts' views about advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, and their impact on jobs and employment

Youth and the future: effective youth services for the year 2015

This report provides an understanding of the services required by young people in the year 2015, based on a thorough analysis of recent trends and expert projections of those trends. The report analyses key social and economic changes for young people in Australia over the past 10 to 20 years including movements in population, education, employment/unemployment and the labour market, incomes, family and household structure, health, and crime and justice

Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts

In business and in macroeconomics it is common practice to use econo-metric models to generate forecasts. These models can take any degree ofsophistication. Sometimes it is felt by an expert that the model-based fore-cast needs adjustment. This paper makes a plea for a formal approach to suchan adjustment, more precise, for the creation of detailed logbooks which con-tain information on why and how model-based forecasts have been adjusted.The reasons for doing so are that such logbooks allow for (i) the preservationof expert knowledge, (ii) for the possible future modi¯cation of econometricmodels in case adjustment is almost always needed, and (iii) for the evaluationof adjusted forecasts. In this paper I put forward an explicit mathematicalexpression for a judgementally adjusted model-based forecast. The key pa-rameters in the expression should enter the logbook. In a limited simulationexperiment I illustrate an additional use of this expression, that is, lookingwith hindsight if adjustment would have led to better results. The resultsof the simulation suggest that always adjusting forecasts leads to very poorresults. Also, it is documented that small adjustments are better that largeadjustments, even in case large adjustments are felt necessary.forecasting;judgemental adjustment