A multi-attribute decision making procedure using fuzzy numbers and hybrid aggregators

The classical Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) has two limitations. Firstly, it disregards the aspect of uncertainty that usually embedded in the data or information expressed by human. Secondly, it ignores the aspect of interdependencies among attributes during aggregation. The application of fuzzy numbers aids in confronting the former issue whereas, the usage of Choquet Integral operator helps in dealing with the later issue. However, the application of fuzzy numbers into multi-attribute decision making (MADM) demands some additional steps and inputs from decision maker(s). Similarly, identification of monotone measure weights prior to employing Choquet Integral requires huge number of computational steps and amount of inputs from decision makers, especially with the increasing number of attributes. Therefore, this research proposed a MADM procedure which able to reduce the number of computational steps and amount of information required from the decision makers when dealing with these two aspects simultaneously. To attain primary goal of this research, five phases were executed. First, the concept of fuzzy set theory and its application in AHP were investigated. Second, an analysis on the aggregation operators was conducted. Third, the investigation was narrowed on Choquet Integral and its associate monotone measure. Subsequently, the proposed procedure was developed with the convergence of five major components namely Factor Analysis, Fuzzy-Linguistic Estimator, Choquet Integral, Mikhailov‘s Fuzzy AHP, and Simple Weighted Average. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed procedure was verified by solving a real MADM problem where the image of three stores located in Sabak Bernam, Selangor, Malaysia was analysed from the homemakers‘ perspective. This research has a potential in motivating more decision makers to simultaneously include uncertainties in human‘s data and interdependencies among attributes when solving any MADM problems

Influencing factors of runway incursion risk and their interaction mechanism based on DEMATEL–ISM

Upad na pistu je središnja jezgra sigurnosti civilnih zračnih luka, a čimbenik koji utječe na upad na pistu je vruća tema u praktičnim i akademskim krugovima. Da bi identificirali ključne čimbenike koji utječu i utvrdili načine interakcije, uobičajeni upadi na pistu analizirani su pomoću modela softver-hardver-okruženje-osoblje (SHELL). Utvrđeno je i izdvojeno petnaest vrsta utjecaja. Usmjernost i uzrok utjecajnih čimbenika izračunati su pomoću probnog i evaluacijskog laboratorija (DEMATEL) i interpretativnog strukturnog modeliranja (ISM). Izrađen je višeslojni interpretativni strukturni model za raslojavanje čimbenika koji utječu na njih. Rezultati pokazuju da je temeljni čimbenik neodgovarajuća pozornost čelnika zračne luke prema sigurnosti. Formuliranje sustava i edukacijsko obrazovanje su čimbenici od najvećeg utjecaja. Previd i stopa pogrešaka u radu službenika na tlu izravni su utjecajni čimbenici. Upad na pistu mogao bi se temeljito kontrolirati i spriječiti poboljšavanjem temeljnog čimbenika. Predložena metoda DEMATEL-ISM može analizirati čimbenike koji utječu na upade na pistu i mehanizam koji dovodi do njih, čime se nadoknađuju nedostaci statističkog modela linearnog faktora rizika i nudi nova ideja odlučivanja i pristupa za kontrolu upada na pistu.Runway incursion is the safety management core of civil airports, and the influencing factor of runway incursion is a hot topic in the practical and academic circles. To identify key influencing factors and determine interaction ways, typical runway incursions were analyzed using the software-hardware-environment-liveware model (SHELL). Fifteen influencing factors were identified and extracted. The centrality and cause of influencing factors were calculated by decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and interpretative structural modelling (ISM). A multi-layer interpretative structural model was constructed for layering of influencing factors. Results indicate that inadequate attention of airport leaders to safety is the root factor. System formulation and educational training are deep influencing factors. Oversight and the operation error rate of ground officials are direct influencing factors. Runway incursion could be fundamentally controlled and prevented by improving the root factor. The proposed DEMATEL-ISM method can analyze the influencing factors of runway incursions and their influencing mechanism, thereby offsetting the shortcomings of the linear risk factor statistical model and offering a novel decision-making idea and approach for runway incursion control

An Investigation of General Criteria for Assessing Space Flight Systems of Diverse Mission Concept Designs

The purpose of this research is to investigate the general criteria for assessing the technical implementation risk factors of proposed space science missions at the mission concept stage. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Flight Program and Project Management Handbook (NASA, 2012), the mission concept review objectives are “To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed mission concept(s) and its fulfillment of the program\u27s needs and objectives. To determine whether the maturity of the concept and associated planning are sufficient to begin Phase A” (p.33). Experts previously defined two technical risk factors, to assess aspects of the space flight systems and mission design and operations of proposed mission concepts. Criteria were developed to address these two technical risk factors, which are comprised of 23 criteria. The space flight systems factor was assumed to be addressed by 16 criteria, while seven criteria were assumed to address the mission design and operations factor. The criteria were developed by experts approximately 20 years ago, and no research has previously been conducted to determine whether all 23 of the evaluation criteria are necessary for assessing the implementation risk of proposed space flight systems and mission design and operations for proposed mission concepts. NASA uses these 23 criteria to conduct expert peer reviews to assess the implementation risk of over 500 unique space science mission concept proposals. An expert peer review process is used because the proposed concepts lack the detailed design information necessary for a quantifiable assessment of risk. The result of the expert peer review of each proposal is a set of ratings with a paragraph explaining the rationale for each rating, based on the 23 criteria. This research used 356 records from past assessments of proposed mission concepts that have been assessed using a five-level qualitative rating scale. A research approach which utilizes exploratory factor analysis and past records to analyze the ratings of the 23 criteria was used. Factor analysis was used to determine if the current factor structure was valid, whether all criteria had substantial loadings on the current factor, and whether all current criteria were necessary. Factor analysis was also used to determine if any of the criteria measured the same construct. This research used a discriminatory power scale to code criteria scores for factor analysis and to identify the criteria of significance to decision makers. This research identified criteria that could be eliminated or could be combined with other criteria. A result of this research is a reduced set of criteria for assessing space flight systems and for mission design and operations that can be accomplished by an expert peer review panel for a diverse set of space mission concepts. A refined set of criteria could result in a less expensive and quicker evaluation process. This can enable decision makers on early assessments of space flight systems to make decisions more efficiently by allowing them to focus only on the most important criteria. This refined set of criteria contributes to the literature on the qualitative risk assessment of space flight systems and mission design and operations. This research is supported by the existing body of literature in using factor analysis to refine a measurement instrument. Using factor analysis to evaluate criteria for spaceflight systems contributes another application of the use of factor analysis, beyond its historical use in psychology, education, and healthcare (Williams, Onsman, & Brown, 2010). This research provides a method that engineering managers can use to analyze and to refine a qualitative measurement instrument for assessment by a group of experts. This method could be useful in assessments that require a broad scope of required expertise

Exploring higher education engagement in computer programming within a blended learning environment : an action research approach

Ph. D. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 2014.Many novice programmers in higher education find computer programming particularly difficult due to its problem solving nature. High dropout rates have been observed both internationally and locally, but in South Africa, the circumstances of students coming from disadvantaged schools where they struggle in subjects like Mathematics and Science, especially compounds their challenges in computer programming when they enrol at a tertiary institute. In this study, I explore the engagement of computer programming at a higher education institution using an innovative approach of incorporating tools in the form of online learning and support structures to supplement the existing face-to-face and practical lessons thereby creating a blended learning environment (BLE). This study, which is a qualitative one, used an interpretivist paradigm to explore the engagement of sixty, first year students in an introductory computer-programming course at a selected university in South Africa, using an action research approach within the context of a BLE. Action research refers to an evaluation of one’s own practice with a view to improving one’s effectiveness, in this case, analysing my own efficacy as a teacher, and the learning that occurred by my students (McNiff, 2013; Whitehead, 1989). This study used two lenses: The first lens was my own as a lecturer/researcher who developed a variety of support structures in the form of notes, videos, animations, and blogging, to support student engagement in computer programming, and the second lens was the students’ engagement with these tools. The study explored this dual engagement and asked two critical questions: 1) How does engagement of computer programming take place within a BL context using an action research approach, and, 2) Why does engagement of computer programming take place within a BL context using an action research approach, in the way it does? A dual form of engagement occurred creating a dynamic BLE. In the study, students were exposed to one theory classroom lesson, and three practical lessons. As the lecturer, I received feedback from the students which informed my attempts to improve the environment. Observations, a personal diary, electronic questionnaires, and focus group meetings were used to gather feedback on how students engaged in the BLE. The action research methodology was based on planning, acting, observing and reflecting. The analysis of the reflections was used in the re-planning phase of the next cycle and a total of three cycles were used. Although there were three main action research cycles, each tool was transformed resulting in smaller cycles emanating within the main action research cycle. Activity Theory was used as a theoretical framework to describe and analyse the actions and engagement that transpired within the BLE. The results from this study highlight positive student engagement in learning through the use of examples and visual tools although the use of language was found to be a barrier under certain circumstance. Support and planning were also identified as important factors for both student and lecture engagement. Other aspects concerning feedback and reflection were established as important during the dual engagement employed resulting in the creation of a dynamic action research model of engagement