5,414 research outputs found
Multiscale mobility networks and the large scale spreading of infectious diseases
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational
modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge
both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of
empirical data. In order to study the interplay between small-scale commuting
flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of
a global epidemic we i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the
world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of
commuting patterns up to 300 kms; ii) integrate in a worldwide structured
metapopulation epidemic model a time-scale separation technique for evaluating
the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease
dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude
larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model
shows that the large scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only
small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic
is considered. The presence of short range mobility increases however the
synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic
behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The
present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered
computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities
can be used consistently in a unifying multi-scale framework.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl
Seeding with Costly Network Information
We study the task of selecting nodes in a social network of size , to
seed a diffusion with maximum expected spread size, under the independent
cascade model with cascade probability . Most of the previous work on this
problem (known as influence maximization) focuses on efficient algorithms to
approximate the optimal seed set with provable guarantees, given the knowledge
of the entire network. However, in practice, obtaining full knowledge of the
network is very costly. To address this gap, we first study the achievable
guarantees using influence samples. We provide an approximation
algorithm with a tight (1-1/e){\mbox{OPT}}-\epsilon n guarantee, using
influence samples and show that this dependence on
is asymptotically optimal. We then propose a probing algorithm that queries
edges from the graph and use them to find a seed set with the
same almost tight approximation guarantee. We also provide a matching (up to
logarithmic factors) lower-bound on the required number of edges. To address
the dependence of our probing algorithm on the independent cascade probability
, we show that it is impossible to maintain the same approximation
guarantees by controlling the discrepancy between the probing and seeding
cascade probabilities. Instead, we propose to down-sample the probed edges to
match the seeding cascade probability, provided that it does not exceed that of
probing. Finally, we test our algorithms on real world data to quantify the
trade-off between the cost of obtaining more refined network information and
the benefit of the added information for guiding improved seeding strategies
A Theory of Strategic Diffusion
The important role of friends, neighbors and colleagues in shaping individual choices has been brought out in a number of studies over the years. The presence of significant ālocalā influence in shaping individual behavior suggests that firms, governments and developmental agencies should explicitly incorporate it in the design of their marketing and developmental strategies. This paper develops a framework for the study of optimal strategies in the presence of social interaction. We focus on the case of a single player who exerts costly effort to get a set of individuals ā engaged in social interaction ā to choose a certain action. Our formulation allows for different types of social interaction (ranging from sharing of information to direct adoption externalities) and also allows for the player to have incomplete information concerning the connections among individuals. The analysis starts by showing that incorporating information on social interaction can have large effects on the profits of a player. We then show that an increase in the level and dispersion of social interaction can raise or lower the optimal strategy and profits of the player, depending on the content of the interaction. We then study the value of social network information for the player and find that it depends on the dispersion in social connections. The economic interest of these results is illustrated via a discussion of two economic applications: advertising in the presence of word of mouth communication and seeding a network.Social Interaction, Seeding the Network, Word of Mouth Communication, Diffusion Strategy
Seed, Expand and Constrain: Three Principles for Weakly-Supervised Image Segmentation
We introduce a new loss function for the weakly-supervised training of
semantic image segmentation models based on three guiding principles: to seed
with weak localization cues, to expand objects based on the information about
which classes can occur in an image, and to constrain the segmentations to
coincide with object boundaries. We show experimentally that training a deep
convolutional neural network using the proposed loss function leads to
substantially better segmentations than previous state-of-the-art methods on
the challenging PASCAL VOC 2012 dataset. We furthermore give insight into the
working mechanism of our method by a detailed experimental study that
illustrates how the segmentation quality is affected by each term of the
proposed loss function as well as their combinations.Comment: ECCV 201
Model-based machine learning to identify clinical relevance in a high-resolution simulation of sepsis and trauma
Introduction: Sepsis is a devastating, costly, and complicated disease. It represents the summation of varied host immune responses in a clinical and physiological diagnosis. Despite extensive research, there is no current mediator-directed therapy, nor a biomarker panel able to categorize disease severity or reliably predict outcome. Although still distant from direct clinical translation, dynamic computational and mathematical models of acute systemic inflammation and sepsis are being developed. Although computationally intensive to run and calibrate, agent-based models (ABMs) are one type of model well suited for this. New analytical methods to efficiently extract knowledge from ABMs are needed. Specifically, machine-learning techniques are a promising option to augment the model development process such that parameterization and calibration are performed intelligently and efficiently.
Methods: We used the Keras framework to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the purpose of identifying critical biological tipping points at which an in silico patient would heal naturally or require intervention in the Innate Immune Response Agent-Based Model (IIRABM). This ANN, determines simulated patient āsurvivalā from cytokine state based on their overall resilience and the pathogenicity of any active infections experienced by the patient, defined by microbial invasiveness, toxigenesis, and environmental toxicity. These tipping points were gathered from previously generated datasets of simulated sweeps of the 4 IIRABM initializing parameters.
Results: Using mean squared error as our loss function, we report an accuracy of greater than 85% with inclusion of 20% of the training set. This accuracy was independently validated on withheld runs. We note that there is some amount of error that is inherent to this process as the determination of the tipping points is a computation which converges monotonically to the true value as a function of the number of stochastic replicates used to determine the point.
Conclusion: Our method of regression of these critical points represents an alternative to traditional parameter-sweeping or sensitivity analysis techniques. Essentially, the ANN computes the boundaries of the clinically relevant space as a function of the modelās parameterization, eliminating the need for a brute-force exploration of model parameter space. In doing so, we demonstrate the successful development of this ANN which will allows for an efficient exploration of model parameter space
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