On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound on mobility predictability

Modeling the Temporal Nature of Human Behavior for Demographics Prediction

Mobile phone metadata is increasingly used for humanitarian purposes in developing countries as traditional data is scarce. Basic demographic information is however often absent from mobile phone datasets, limiting the operational impact of the datasets. For these reasons, there has been a growing interest in predicting demographic information from mobile phone metadata. Previous work focused on creating increasingly advanced features to be modeled with standard machine learning algorithms. We here instead model the raw mobile phone metadata directly using deep learning, exploiting the temporal nature of the patterns in the data. From high-level assumptions we design a data representation and convolutional network architecture for modeling patterns within a week. We then examine three strategies for aggregating patterns across weeks and show that our method reaches state-of-the-art accuracy on both age and gender prediction using only the temporal modality in mobile metadata. We finally validate our method on low activity users and evaluate the modeling assumptions.Comment: Accepted at ECML 2017. A previous version of this paper was titled 'Using Deep Learning to Predict Demographics from Mobile Phone Metadata' and was accepted at the ICLR 2016 worksho

Breaking the habit: measuring and predicting departures from routine in individual human mobility

Researchers studying daily life mobility patterns have recently shown that humans are typically highly predictable in their movements. However, no existing work has examined the boundaries of this predictability, where human behaviour transitions temporarily from routine patterns to highly unpredictable states. To address this shortcoming, we tackle two interrelated challenges. First, we develop a novel information-theoretic metric, called instantaneous entropy, to analyse an individual’s mobility patterns and identify temporary departures from routine. Second, to predict such departures in the future, we propose the first Bayesian framework that explicitly models breaks from routine, showing that it outperforms current state-of-the-art predictor

A survey on Human Mobility and its applications

Human Mobility has attracted attentions from different fields of studies such as epidemic modeling, traffic engineering, traffic prediction and urban planning. In this survey we review major characteristics of human mobility studies including from trajectory-based studies to studies using graph and network theory. In trajectory-based studies statistical measures such as jump length distribution and radius of gyration are analyzed in order to investigate how people move in their daily life, and if it is possible to model this individual movements and make prediction based on them. Using graph in mobility studies, helps to investigate the dynamic behavior of the system, such as diffusion and flow in the network and makes it easier to estimate how much one part of the network influences another by using metrics like centrality measures. We aim to study population flow in transportation networks using mobility data to derive models and patterns, and to develop new applications in predicting phenomena such as congestion. Human Mobility studies with the new generation of mobility data provided by cellular phone networks, arise new challenges such as data storing, data representation, data analysis and computation complexity. A comparative review of different data types used in current tools and applications of Human Mobility studies leads us to new approaches for dealing with mentioned challenges

Measuring Membership Privacy on Aggregate Location Time-Series

While location data is extremely valuable for various applications, disclosing it prompts serious threats to individuals' privacy. To limit such concerns, organizations often provide analysts with aggregate time-series that indicate, e.g., how many people are in a location at a time interval, rather than raw individual traces. In this paper, we perform a measurement study to understand Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) on aggregate location time-series, where an adversary tries to infer whether a specific user contributed to the aggregates. We find that the volume of contributed data, as well as the regularity and particularity of users' mobility patterns, play a crucial role in the attack's success. We experiment with a wide range of defenses based on generalization, hiding, and perturbation, and evaluate their ability to thwart the attack vis-a-vis the utility loss they introduce for various mobility analytics tasks. Our results show that some defenses fail across the board, while others work for specific tasks on aggregate location time-series. For instance, suppressing small counts can be used for ranking hotspots, data generalization for forecasting traffic, hotspot discovery, and map inference, while sampling is effective for location labeling and anomaly detection when the dataset is sparse. Differentially private techniques provide reasonable accuracy only in very specific settings, e.g., discovering hotspots and forecasting their traffic, and more so when using weaker privacy notions like crowd-blending privacy. Overall, our measurements show that there does not exist a unique generic defense that can preserve the utility of the analytics for arbitrary applications, and provide useful insights regarding the disclosure of sanitized aggregate location time-series

Multiscale mobility networks and the large scale spreading of infectious diseases

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In order to study the interplay between small-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of a global epidemic we i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms; ii) integrate in a worldwide structured metapopulation epidemic model a time-scale separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short range mobility increases however the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multi-scale framework.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

Privacy-Aware Adversarial Network in Human Mobility Prediction

As mobile devices and location-based services are increasingly developed in different smart city scenarios and applications, many unexpected privacy leakages have arisen due to geolocated data collection and sharing. User re-identification and other sensitive inferences are major privacy threats when geolocated data are shared with cloud-assisted applications. Significantly, four spatio-temporal points are enough to uniquely identify 95\% of the individuals, which exacerbates personal information leakages. To tackle malicious purposes such as user re-identification, we propose an LSTM-based adversarial mechanism with representation learning to attain a privacy-preserving feature representation of the original geolocated data (i.e., mobility data) for a sharing purpose. These representations aim to maximally reduce the chance of user re-identification and full data reconstruction with a minimal utility budget (i.e., loss). We train the mechanism by quantifying privacy-utility trade-off of mobility datasets in terms of trajectory reconstruction risk, user re-identification risk, and mobility predictability. We report an exploratory analysis that enables the user to assess this trade-off with a specific loss function and its weight parameters. The extensive comparison results on four representative mobility datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed architecture in mobility privacy protection and the efficiency of the proposed privacy-preserving features extractor. We show that the privacy of mobility traces attains decent protection at the cost of marginal mobility utility. Our results also show that by exploring the Pareto optimal setting, we can simultaneously increase both privacy (45%) and utility (32%)