NASA Lewis Research Center Futuring Workshop

On October 21 and 22, 1986, the Futures Group ran a two-day Futuring Workshop on the premises of NASA Lewis Research Center. The workshop had four main goals: to acquaint participants with the general history of technology forecasting; to familiarize participants with the range of forecasting methodologies; to acquaint participants with the range of applicability, strengths, and limitations of each method; and to offer participants some hands-on experience by working through both judgmental and quantitative case studies. Among the topics addressed during this workshop were: information sources; judgmental techniques; quantitative techniques; merger of judgment with quantitative measurement; data collection methods; and dealing with uncertainty

The Future of Mobile Information and Communication Technology in Austere Environments: A Command and Control Technology Integration Perspective

The information and communications technology (ICT) field is undergoing a period of tremendous and rapid change. As ICT develops more rapidly, the United States Air Force needs to remain responsive and adaptive to maintain military advantages. The need to integrate ICT developments sooner than our adversaries prompted an assessment of guidelines evaluating how well the AF is doctrinally positioned from a Command and Control perspective to support integration of emerging ICT. A Delphi Study was commissioned by the 689th CCW to forecast the future of mobile Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in austere environments. Using the ICT forecast data as a basis, the panel provided inputs on the integration concerns the forecasted trends invoked and the effects of the forecast on the Measures of Effectiveness outlined in AF doctrine

Needed Actions within Defense Acquisitions Based on a Forecast of Future Mobile Information and Communications Technologies Deployed in Austere Environments

The purpose of this research was twofold. First, it developed a forecast of future mobile information and communications technologies (ICT) suitable for use by military forces in austere environments in 5-10, 10-20, and beyond 20 years. Secondly, it explored whether or not current acquisitions practices will be adequate to meet the needs of warfighters who depend on mobile ICT. These questions were explored by conducting utilization of the Delphi technique. Eight panelists from within the private sector conducted three rounds of iterative feedback. This research resulted in a technology forecast for the three timeframes aforementioned, and the potential impacts to the defense acquisitions community. First, current acquisitions practices are unlikely to meet the needs of warfighters dependent upon mobile ICT and streamlining efforts are not likely to result in sufficient lessening of development timelines to maintain technological currency. Secondly, it is foreseeable that military forces will become increasingly dependent upon technologies developed by the private sector. An acquisitions model which exploits technological advances in the form of smart phones and tablets and a secure repository for approved applications and data services is feasible and may help defense acquisitions to maintain technological currency as they replace dedicated, single-purpose equipment. Finally, it suggested that developing the organizational flexibility to adapt to emerging technological trends will become more important than detailed planning and budgeting beyond 10 years

From Hindsight to Foresight: Applying Futures Research Techniques in Information Systems

Although much IS research deals with evaluating and improving existing information systems, researchers are also called upon to think about the future, particularly beyond organizational boundaries. Examples include: the potential impact of socio-technical phenomena such as the digital divide, digital rights management, security, and privacy. One way of forecasting the future is to extrapolate empirically observed relations (e.g. Moore’s law). However, such extrapolations assume that the future is an immutable extension of the present and are usually limited to one or two dimensions. Externalities due to disruptive inventions, changes in regulations, tastes, competition, required skills, and more also need to be considered. This tutorial presents and explains three methodologies that take these possible changes into account to improve our understanding of the future: Delphi, cross impact analysis, and scenarios

LANDSAT data for state planning

The results of an effort to generate and apply automated classification of LANDSAT digital data to state of Georgia problems are presented. This phase centers on an analysis of the usefulness of LANDSAT digital data to provide land-use data for transportation planning. Hall County, Georgia was chosen as a test site because it is part of a seventeen county area for which the Georgia Department of Transportation is currently designing a Transportation Planning Land-Use Simulation Model. The land-cover information derived from this study was compared to several other existing sources of land-use data for Hall County and input into this simulation. The results indicate that there is difficulty comparing LANDSAT derived land-cover information with previous land-use information since the LANDSAT data are acquired on an acre by acre grid basis while all previous land-use surveys for Hall County used land-use data on a parcel basis

Aerospace management techniques: Commercial and governmental applications

A guidebook for managers and administrators is presented as a source of useful information on new management methods in business, industry, and government. The major topics discussed include: actual and potential applications of aerospace management techniques to commercial and governmental organizations; aerospace management techniques and their use within the aerospace sector; and the aerospace sector's application of innovative management techniques

Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies

OBJECTIVES: Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. DESIGN: Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. PARTICIPANTS: People are not needed in this study. DATA SOURCES: The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. RESULTS: 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. CONCLUSIONS: The methodological fundamentals of formal 3–20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified

Research Priorities in Mobile Learning: An International Delphi Study

Along with advancing mobile technologies and proliferating mobile devices and applications, mobile learning research has gained great momentum in recent years. While there have been review articles summarizing past research, studies identifying mobile learning research priorities based on experts’ latest insights have been lacking. This study employed the Delphi method to obtain a consensus from experts about areas that are most in need of research in mobile learning. An international expert panel participated in a three-round Delphi process involving two cycles of online questionnaires and feedback reports. Participants responded to the question, “What should be the research priorities for the field of mobile learning over the next 5 years?” Ten research categories were identified and ranked in order of priority: 1) teaching and learning strategies; 2) affordances; 3) theory; 4) settings of learning; 5) evaluation/assessment; 6) learners; 7) mobile technologies and interface design; 8) context awareness and augmented reality; 9) infrastructure and management; and 10) country and digital divide. This study also reported expert-generated research statements for each research category and the importance of these research statements rated by the experts. Selected research papers were summarized to help contextualize the discussions of research categories and statements