“Robin Hook”: The developmental effects of Somali piracy

Copyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityNaval counter-piracy measures off Somalia have failed to change the incentives for pirates, raising calls for land-based approaches that may involve replacing piracy as a source of income. This paper evaluates the effects of piracy on the Somali economy to establish which (domestic) groups benefit from ransom monies. Given the paucity of economic data on Somalia, we evaluate province-level market data, nightlight emissions and high resolution satellite imagery. We show that significant amounts of ransom monies are spent within Somalia. The impacts appear to be spread widely, benefiting the working poor and pastoralists and offsetting the food price shock of 2008 in the pirate provinces. Pirates appear to invest their money principally in the main cities of Garowe and Bosasso rather than in the backward coastal communities

"Robin Hook": The Developmental Effects of Somali Piracy

Naval counter-piracy measures off Somalia have failed to change the incentives for pirates, raising calls for land-based approaches that may involve replacing piracy as a source of income. This paper evaluates the effects of piracy on the Somali economy to establish which (domestic) groups benefit from ransom monies. Given the paucity of economic data on Somalia, we evaluate province-level market data, nightlight emissions and high resolution satellite imagery. We show that significant amounts of ransom monies are spent within Somalia. The impacts appear to be spread widely, benefiting the working poor and pastoralists and offsetting the food price shock of 2008 in the pirate provinces. Pirates appear to invest their money principally in the main cities of Garowe and Bosasso rather than in the backward coastal communities.Somalia, piracy, cash transfers, economic development, remote sensing, satellite imaging

Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space

GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. Our statistical framework uses light growth to supplement existing income growth measures. The framework is applied to countries with the lowest quality income data, resulting in estimates of growth that differ substantially from established estimates. We then consider a longstanding debate: do increases in local agricultural productivity increase city incomes? For African cities, we find that exogenous agricultural productivity shocks (high rainfall years) have substantial effects on local urban economic activity.economic growth; remote sensing; urbanization; income measurement

Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space

GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. We develop a statistical framework that uses lights growth to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement error in using observed light as an indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts. For countries with good national income accounts data, information on growth of lights is of marginal value in estimating the true growth rate of income, while for countries with the worst national income accounts, the optimal estimate of true income growth is a composite with roughly equal weights. Among poor-data countries, our new estimate of average annual growth differs by as much as 3 percentage points from official data. Lights data also allow for measurement of income growth in sub- and supranational regions. As an application, we examine growth in Sub Saharan African regions over the last 17 years. We find that real incomes in non-coastal areas have grown faster by 1/3 of an annual percentage point than coastal areas; non-malarial areas have grown faster than malarial ones by 1/3 to 2/3 annual percent points; and primate city regions have grown no faster than hinterland areas. Such applications point toward a research program in which “empirical growth” need no longer be synonymous with “national income accounts.”

Aladdin\u27s Magic Lamp: Developing Methods for Calibration and Geolocation Accuracy Assessment of the DMSP OLS

Nighttime satellite imagery from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS) has a unique capability to observe nocturnal light emissions from sources including cities, wild fires, and gas flares. Data from the DMSP OLS is used in a wide range of studies including mapping urban areas, estimating informal economies, and estimating urban populations. Given the extensive and increasing list of applications a repeatable method for assessing geolocation accuracy, performing inter-calibration, and defining the minimum detectable brightness would be beneficial. An array of portable lights was designed and taken to multiple field sites known to have no other light sources. The lights were operated during nighttime overpasses by the DMSP OLS and observed in the imagery. A first estimate of the minimum detectable brightness is presented based on the field experiments conducted. An assessment of the geolocation accuracy was performed by measuring the distance between the GPS measured location of the lights and the observed location in the imagery. A systematic shift was observed and the mean distance was measured at 2.9km. A method for in situ radiance calibration of the DMSP OLS using a ground based light source as an active target is presented. The wattage of light used by the active target strongly correlates with the signal measured by the DMSP OLS. This approach can be used to enhance our ability to make inter-temporal and inter-satellite comparisons of DMSP OLS imagery. Exploring the possibility of establishing a permanent active target for the calibration of nocturnal imaging systems is recommended. The methods used to assess the minimum detectable brightness, assess the geolocation accuracy, and build inter-calibration models lay the ground work for assessing the energy expended on light emitted into the sky at night. An estimate of the total energy consumed to light the night sky globally is presented