Estimating Infection Sources in Networks Using Partial Timestamps

We study the problem of identifying infection sources in a network based on the network topology, and a subset of infection timestamps. In the case of a single infection source in a tree network, we derive the maximum likelihood estimator of the source and the unknown diffusion parameters. We then introduce a new heuristic involving an optimization over a parametrized family of Gromov matrices to develop a single source estimation algorithm for general graphs. Compared with the breadth-first search tree heuristic commonly adopted in the literature, simulations demonstrate that our approach achieves better estimation accuracy than several other benchmark algorithms, even though these require more information like the diffusion parameters. We next develop a multiple sources estimation algorithm for general graphs, which first partitions the graph into source candidate clusters, and then applies our single source estimation algorithm to each cluster. We show that if the graph is a tree, then each source candidate cluster contains at least one source. Simulations using synthetic and real networks, and experiments using real-world data suggest that our proposed algorithms are able to estimate the true infection source(s) to within a small number of hops with a small portion of the infection timestamps being observed.Comment: 15 pages, 15 figures, accepted by IEEE Transactions on Information Forensics and Securit

Network segregation in a model of misinformation and fact checking

Misinformation under the form of rumor, hoaxes, and conspiracy theories spreads on social media at alarming rates. One hypothesis is that, since social media are shaped by homophily, belief in misinformation may be more likely to thrive on those social circles that are segregated from the rest of the network. One possible antidote is fact checking which, in some cases, is known to stop rumors from spreading further. However, fact checking may also backfire and reinforce the belief in a hoax. Here we take into account the combination of network segregation, finite memory and attention, and fact-checking efforts. We consider a compartmental model of two interacting epidemic processes over a network that is segregated between gullible and skeptic users. Extensive simulation and mean-field analysis show that a more segregated network facilitates the spread of a hoax only at low forgetting rates, but has no effect when agents forget at faster rates. This finding may inform the development of mitigation techniques and overall inform on the risks of uncontrolled misinformation online

Backward and Forward Inference in Interacting Independent-Cascade Processes: A Scalable and Convergent Message-Passing Approach

We study the problems of estimating the past and future evolutions of two diffusion processes that spread concurrently on a network. Specifically, given a known network $G=(V, \overrightarrow{E})$ and a (possibly noisy) snapshot $\mathcal{O}_n$ of its state taken at (a possibly unknown) time $W$, we wish to determine the posterior distributions of the initial state of the network and the infection times of its nodes. These distributions are useful in finding source nodes of epidemics and rumors -- $\textit{backward inference}$ -- , and estimating the spread of a fixed set of source nodes -- $\textit{forward inference}$. To model the interaction between the two processes, we study an extension of the independent-cascade (IC) model where, when a node gets infected with either process, its susceptibility to the other one changes. First, we derive the exact joint probability of the initial state of the network and the observation-snapshot $\mathcal{O}_n$. Then, using the machinery of factor-graphs, factor-graph transformations, and the generalized distributive-law, we derive a Belief-Propagation (BP) based algorithm that is scalable to large networks and can converge on graphs of arbitrary topology (at a likely expense in approximation accuracy)