Assessing the Olympics: Preliminary Economic Analysis of a Boston 2024 Games Impacts, Opportunities and Risks

The possibility of hosting the Summer Games is sparking significant debate in our community about the potential benefits, costs, and risks associated with hosting the Olympics. With these debates in mind, the Boston Foundation (TBF) commissioned the Economic and Public Policy Research group (EPPR) at the UMass Donahue Institute (UMDI) to perform a detailed economic impact assessment of Boston's proposed 2024 Olympic bid. While the Boston 2024 proposal is a working document and should be thought of as a "proof of concept" rather than a concrete plan, there are still several components of the proposal that can be evaluated at this time. The following report contributes to the public discourse by providing a preliminary assessment of the quantitative short-term economic impacts of hosting the 2024 Summer Olympic Games in Boston. In addition, this report highlights several of the potential opportunities, challenges, and risks associated with hosting the Olympic Games that are difficult to quantifiably measure at this time, but require further attention as the Olympic bid evolves over the next couple of years

Meta Analysis in Model Implementation: Choice Sets and the Valuation of Air Quality Improvements

We document the sensitivity of welfare estimates derived from discrete choice models to assumptions about the choice set. Such assumptions can affect welfare estimates through both the estimated parameters of the model and, conditional on the parameters, the substitution among alternatives. Our analysis involves estimates of the benefits of air quality improvements in Los Angeles based on discrete choices of neighborhood and housing. We further illustrate the use of meta analysis to document and summarize voluminous information derived from repeated sensitivity analyses.Meta analysis, random utility model, choice set, air quality, housing

School vouchers and student achievement: recent evidence, remaining questions

In this article, we review the empirical evidence on the impact of education vouchers on student achievement, and briefly discuss the evidence from other forms of school choice. The best research to date finds relatively small achievement gains for students offered education vouchers, most of which are not statistically different from zero. Further, what little evidence exists regarding the potential for public schools to respond to increased competitive pressure generated by vouchers suggests that one should remain wary that large improvements would result from a more comprehensive voucher system. The evidence from other forms of school choice is also consistent with this conclusion. Many questions remain unanswered, however, including whether vouchers have longer-run impacts on outcomes such as graduation rates, college enrollment, or even future wages, and whether vouchers might nevertheless provide a cost-neutral alternative to our current system of public education provision at the elementary and secondary school level.Educational vouchers

Understanding the Education Trajectories of Young Black Men in New York City: Elementary and Middle-School Years

Making targeted decisions about how, when, and where to intervene to improve educational outcomes for black males requires understanding the complex pathways that shape these outcomes. This study, undertaken for the Black Male Donor Collaborative, uses longitudinal data on a cohort of black males from New York City Schools to gain insights about the different possible student paths, with specific focuses on middle school and math scale scores

Parental Preferences and School Competition: Evidence from a Public School Choice Program

This paper uses data from the implementation of a district-wide public school choice plan in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina to estimate preferences for school characteristics and examine their implications for the local educational market. We use parental rankings of their top three choices of schools matched with student demographic and test score data to estimate a mixed-logit discrete choice demand model for schools. We find that parents value proximity highly and the preference attached to a school's mean test score increases with student's income and own academic ability. We also find considerable heterogeneity in preferences even after controlling for income, academic achievement and race, with strong negative correlations between preferences for academics and school proximity. Simulations of parental responses to test score improvements at a school suggest that the demand response at high-performing schools would be larger than the response at low-performing schools, leading to disparate demand-side pressure to improve performance under school choice.

Informing Lottery Budget Decisions: HOPE and Pre-K

This report address how different allocations of lottery revenue between the Pre-K and HOPE programs might affect the achievement of the objectives of these two programs

Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogenous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error

A puzzle exists at the heart of pre-election polling. Despite continual methodological improvement and repeated attempts to identify and correct issues laid bare by misprediction, average polling accuracy has not notably improved since the conclusion of the Second World War. In this thesis, I contend that this is the result of a poll-level focus within the study of polling error that is both incommensurate with its evolution over time and the nature of the elections that polls seek to predict. I hold that differences between elections stand as a plausible source of polling error and situate them within a novel four-level model of sources of polling error. By establishing the heterogenous nature of elections as phenomena and its expected impact on polling error, I propose a new election-level ontology through which the inaccuracy of polls can be understood. I test the empirical validity of this new ontology by using a novel multi-level model to analyse error across the most expansive polling dataset assembled to date, encompassing 11,832 in-campaign polls conducted in 497 elections across 83 countries, finding that membership within different elections meaningfully impacts polling error variation. With the empirical validity of my proposed ontology established, I engage in an exploratory analysis of its benefits, finding electoral characteristics to be useful in the prediction of polling error. Ultimately, I conclude that the adoption of a new, multi-level ontology of polling error centred on the importance of electoral heterogeneity not only offers a more comprehensive theoretical account of its sources than current understandings, but is also more specifically tailored to the reality of pre-election polling than existing alternatives. I also contend that it offers pronounced practical benefits, illuminating those circumstances in which polling error is likely to vary

Private Schooling in the U.S.: Expenditures, Supply, and Policy Implications

This report provides a first-of-its-kind descriptive summary of private school expenditures. It includes comparisons of expenditures among different types and affiliations of private schools, and it also compares those expenditures with public school expenditures for districts in the same state and labor market. Results indicate that (1) the less-regulated private school sector is more varied in many key features (teacher attributes, pay and school expenditures) than the more highly regulated public schooling sector; (2) these private school variations align and are largely explained by affiliation -- primarily religious affiliation -- alone; and (3) a ranking of school sectors by average spending correlates well with a ranking of those sectors by average standardized test scores