12,666 research outputs found
Predictive Non-equilibrium Social Science
Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for
instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations
interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of
NESS, occupying a central role in its scientific inquiry and representing a key
activity of practitioners in domains such as economics, public policy, and
national security. We begin by clarifying the distinction between models which
are useful for prediction and the much more common explanatory models studied
in the social sciences. We then investigate a challenging real-world predictive
analysis case study, and find evidence that the poor performance of standard
prediction methods does not indicate an absence of human predictability but
instead reflects (1.) incorrect assumptions concerning the predictive utility
of explanatory models, (2.) misunderstanding regarding which features of social
dynamics actually possess predictive power, and (3.) practical difficulties
exploiting predictive representations.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1212.680
Online Human-Bot Interactions: Detection, Estimation, and Characterization
Increasing evidence suggests that a growing amount of social media content is
generated by autonomous entities known as social bots. In this work we present
a framework to detect such entities on Twitter. We leverage more than a
thousand features extracted from public data and meta-data about users:
friends, tweet content and sentiment, network patterns, and activity time
series. We benchmark the classification framework by using a publicly available
dataset of Twitter bots. This training data is enriched by a manually annotated
collection of active Twitter users that include both humans and bots of varying
sophistication. Our models yield high accuracy and agreement with each other
and can detect bots of different nature. Our estimates suggest that between 9%
and 15% of active Twitter accounts are bots. Characterizing ties among
accounts, we observe that simple bots tend to interact with bots that exhibit
more human-like behaviors. Analysis of content flows reveals retweet and
mention strategies adopted by bots to interact with different target groups.
Using clustering analysis, we characterize several subclasses of accounts,
including spammers, self promoters, and accounts that post content from
connected applications.Comment: Accepted paper for ICWSM'17, 10 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl
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