Using Consumer-Generated Social Media Posts to Improve Forecasts of Television Premiere Viewership: Extending Diffusion of Innovation Theory

Billions of US dollars in transactions occur each year between media companies and advertisers purchasing commercials on television shows to reach target demographics. This study investigates how consumer enthusiasm can be quantified (via social media posts) as an input to improve forecast models of television series premiere viewership beyond inputs that are typically used in the entertainment industry. Results support that Twitter activity (volume of tweets and retweets) is a driver of consumer viewership of unscripted programs (i.e., reality or competition shows). As such, incorporating electronic word of mouth (eWOM) into forecasting models improves accuracy for predictions of unscripted shows. Furthermore, trend analysis suggests it is possible to calculate a forecast as early as 14 days prior to the premiere date. This research also extends the Diffusion of Innovation theory and diffusion modeling by applying them in the television entertainment environment. Evidence was found supporting Rogers’s (2003) heterophilous communication, also referred to by Granovetter (1973) as “weak ties.” Further, despite a diffusion pattern that differs from other categories, entertainment consumption demonstrates evidence of a mass media (external) channel and an interpersonal eWOM (internal) channel

Internet killed the radio star?

Radio airplay is still a popular direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel for music products. In this paper, we investigate the effect of radio airplay on album sales, mediated by consumer social media engagement with music artists. Grounded in the cultural production model, as well as the literature on customer engagement and satiation, we propose several hypotheses. We analyze our unique dataset by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results reveal that radio airtime has a bigger impact on album sales of lesser-known musicians than those of famous musicians. Social media engagement mediates the positive effect of radio airplay on album sales; this effect is moderated by the musician’s popularity such that famous musicians enjoy greater social media engagement compared to their lesser-known counterparts. These results have important managerial implications for positioning and channel strategies for lesser-known as well as for already famous musicians. Our findings contribute to the literature on music marketing, social media engagement, and satiation. Surprisingly, this research suggests that the role of radio is not as straightforward as has been described before and the implications for new and seasoned artists in the age of digital music consumption have the potential to change the views of this ‘outdated’ medium

How electronic word of mouth dynamically influences product sales and supplies: an evidence from China film industry

As an important part of e-commerce, online reviews play a significant role in consumers’ purchase decisions. This study investigated the dynamic effects of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) and the number of people wishing to watch a movie on movie sales and supplies in the Chinese movie market. Using a dynamic simultaneous equation system and data of 76 films, this study analyzed the interrelationships between eWOM and movie sales and supplies. Our findings showed that both the volume and valence of eWOM affected movie sales and supplies significantly. The number of people who wanted to watch a movie had an opposite effect on movie sales and supply; eWOM volume had a positive impact on movie sales and supplies; and eWOM valence had a negative impact on movie sales and a positive impact on movie supplies. The number of people who wish to watch a movie was another important variable for movie sales and supplies, and it had a negative impact on the daily movie sales but a positive impact on the daily movie supplies. This study provided a detailed explanation of these results and thus contributed to improving the efficiency of movie suppliers’ utilization of online reviews

Leveraging analytics to produce compelling and profitable film content

Producing compelling film content profitably is a top priority to the long-term prosperity of the film industry. Advances in digital technologies, increasing availabilities of granular big data, rapid diffusion of analytic techniques, and intensified competition from user generated content and original content produced by Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) platforms have created unparalleled needs and opportunities for film producers to leverage analytics in content production. Built upon the theories of value creation and film production, this article proposes a conceptual framework of key analytic techniques that film producers may engage throughout the production process, such as script analytics, talent analytics, and audience analytics. The article further synthesizes the state-of-the-art research on and applications of these analytics, discuss the prospect of leveraging analytics in film production, and suggest fruitful avenues for future research with important managerial implications

Influence of social media on performance of movies

"May 2014."Thesis advisor: Dr. Wenjun Zeng.Includes bibliographical references (pages 51-53)