Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time

Understanding of the effect of a particular treatment or a policy pertains to many areas of interest -- ranging from political economics, marketing to health-care and personalized treatment studies. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric, model-free test for detecting the effects of treatment over time that extends widely used Synthetic Control tests. The test is built on counterfactual predictions arising from many learning algorithms. In the Neyman-Rubin potential outcome framework with possible carry-over effects, we show that the proposed test is asymptotically consistent for stationary, beta mixing processes. We do not assume that class of learners captures the correct model necessarily. We also discuss estimates of the average treatment effect, and we provide regret bounds on the predictive performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first set of results that allow for example any Random Forest to be useful for provably valid statistical inference in the Synthetic Control setting. In experiments, we show that our Synthetic Learner is substantially more powerful than classical methods based on Synthetic Control or Difference-in-Differences, especially in the presence of non-linear outcome models

A Statistical Perspective on Algorithmic Leveraging

One popular method for dealing with large-scale data sets is sampling. For example, by using the empirical statistical leverage scores as an importance sampling distribution, the method of algorithmic leveraging samples and rescales rows/columns of data matrices to reduce the data size before performing computations on the subproblem. This method has been successful in improving computational efficiency of algorithms for matrix problems such as least-squares approximation, least absolute deviations approximation, and low-rank matrix approximation. Existing work has focused on algorithmic issues such as worst-case running times and numerical issues associated with providing high-quality implementations, but none of it addresses statistical aspects of this method. In this paper, we provide a simple yet effective framework to evaluate the statistical properties of algorithmic leveraging in the context of estimating parameters in a linear regression model with a fixed number of predictors. We show that from the statistical perspective of bias and variance, neither leverage-based sampling nor uniform sampling dominates the other. This result is particularly striking, given the well-known result that, from the algorithmic perspective of worst-case analysis, leverage-based sampling provides uniformly superior worst-case algorithmic results, when compared with uniform sampling. Based on these theoretical results, we propose and analyze two new leveraging algorithms. A detailed empirical evaluation of existing leverage-based methods as well as these two new methods is carried out on both synthetic and real data sets. The empirical results indicate that our theory is a good predictor of practical performance of existing and new leverage-based algorithms and that the new algorithms achieve improved performance.Comment: 44 pages, 17 figure

Sparse regulatory networks

In many organisms the expression levels of each gene are controlled by the activation levels of known "Transcription Factors" (TF). A problem of considerable interest is that of estimating the "Transcription Regulation Networks" (TRN) relating the TFs and genes. While the expression levels of genes can be observed, the activation levels of the corresponding TFs are usually unknown, greatly increasing the difficulty of the problem. Based on previous experimental work, it is often the case that partial information about the TRN is available. For example, certain TFs may be known to regulate a given gene or in other cases a connection may be predicted with a certain probability. In general, the biology of the problem indicates there will be very few connections between TFs and genes. Several methods have been proposed for estimating TRNs. However, they all suffer from problems such as unrealistic assumptions about prior knowledge of the network structure or computational limitations. We propose a new approach that can directly utilize prior information about the network structure in conjunction with observed gene expression data to estimate the TRN. Our approach uses $L_1$ penalties on the network to ensure a sparse structure. This has the advantage of being computationally efficient as well as making many fewer assumptions about the network structure. We use our methodology to construct the TRN for E. coli and show that the estimate is biologically sensible and compares favorably with previous estimates.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS350 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org