31,116 research outputs found
Entropy-based approach to missing-links prediction
Link-prediction is an active research field within network theory, aiming at
uncovering missing connections or predicting the emergence of future
relationships from the observed network structure. This paper represents our
contribution to the stream of research concerning missing links prediction.
Here, we propose an entropy-based method to predict a given percentage of
missing links, by identifying them with the most probable non-observed ones.
The probability coefficients are computed by solving opportunely defined
null-models over the accessible network structure. Upon comparing our
likelihood-based, local method with the most popular algorithms over a set of
economic, financial and food networks, we find ours to perform best, as pointed
out by a number of statistical indicators (e.g. the precision, the area under
the ROC curve, etc.). Moreover, the entropy-based formalism adopted in the
present paper allows us to straightforwardly extend the link-prediction
exercise to directed networks as well, thus overcoming one of the main
limitations of current algorithms. The higher accuracy achievable by employing
these methods - together with their larger flexibility - makes them strong
competitors of available link-prediction algorithms
Predicting Community Evolution in Social Networks
Nowadays, sustained development of different social media can be observed
worldwide. One of the relevant research domains intensively explored recently
is analysis of social communities existing in social media as well as
prediction of their future evolution taking into account collected historical
evolution chains. These evolution chains proposed in the paper contain group
states in the previous time frames and its historical transitions that were
identified using one out of two methods: Stable Group Changes Identification
(SGCI) and Group Evolution Discovery (GED). Based on the observed evolution
chains of various length, structural network features are extracted, validated
and selected as well as used to learn classification models. The experimental
studies were performed on three real datasets with different profile: DBLP,
Facebook and Polish blogosphere. The process of group prediction was analysed
with respect to different classifiers as well as various descriptive feature
sets extracted from evolution chains of different length. The results revealed
that, in general, the longer evolution chains the better predictive abilities
of the classification models. However, chains of length 3 to 7 enabled the
GED-based method to almost reach its maximum possible prediction quality. For
SGCI, this value was at the level of 3 to 5 last periods.Comment: Entropy 2015, 17, 1-x manuscripts; doi:10.3390/e170x000x 46 page
A GDP-driven model for the binary and weighted structure of the International Trade Network
Recent events such as the global financial crisis have renewed the interest
in the topic of economic networks. One of the main channels of shock
propagation among countries is the International Trade Network (ITN). Two
important models for the ITN structure, the classical gravity model of trade
(more popular among economists) and the fitness model (more popular among
networks scientists), are both limited to the characterization of only one
representation of the ITN. The gravity model satisfactorily predicts the volume
of trade between connected countries, but cannot reproduce the observed missing
links (i.e. the topology). On the other hand, the fitness model can
successfully replicate the topology of the ITN, but cannot predict the volumes.
This paper tries to make an important step forward in the unification of those
two frameworks, by proposing a new GDP-driven model which can simultaneously
reproduce the binary and the weighted properties of the ITN. Specifically, we
adopt a maximum-entropy approach where both the degree and the strength of each
node is preserved. We then identify strong nonlinear relationships between the
GDP and the parameters of the model. This ultimately results in a weighted
generalization of the fitness model of trade, where the GDP plays the role of a
`macroeconomic fitness' shaping the binary and the weighted structure of the
ITN simultaneously. Our model mathematically highlights an important asymmetry
in the role of binary and weighted network properties, namely the fact that
binary properties can be inferred without the knowledge of weighted ones, while
the opposite is not true
- …