Spatiotemporal patterns and predictability of cyberattacks

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term "spatio" refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing {\em macroscopic} properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack "fingerprints" and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Predictability of Cyberattacks

Y.C.L. was supported by Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) under grant no. FA9550-10-1-0083 and Army Research Office (ARO) under grant no. W911NF-14-1-0504. S.X. was supported by Army Research Office (ARO) under grant no. W911NF-13-1-0141. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Unfolding the procedure of characterizing recorded ultra low frequency, kHZ and MHz electromagetic anomalies prior to the L'Aquila earthquake as pre-seismic ones. Part I

Ultra low frequency, kHz and MHz electromagnetic anomalies were recorded prior to the L'Aquila catastrophic earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009. The main aims of this contribution are: (i) To suggest a procedure for the designation of detected EM anomalies as seismogenic ones. We do not expect to be possible to provide a succinct and solid definition of a pre-seismic EM emission. Instead, we attempt, through a multidisciplinary analysis, to provide elements of a definition. (ii) To link the detected MHz and kHz EM anomalies with equivalent last stages of the L'Aquila earthquake preparation process. (iii) To put forward physically meaningful arguments to support a way of quantifying the time to global failure and the identification of distinguishing features beyond which the evolution towards global failure becomes irreversible. The whole effort is unfolded in two consecutive parts. We clarify we try to specify not only whether or not a single EM anomaly is pre-seismic in itself, but mainly whether a combination of kHz, MHz, and ULF EM anomalies can be characterized as pre-seismic one

Order out of Randomness : Self-Organization Processes in Astrophysics

Self-organization is a property of dissipative nonlinear processes that are governed by an internal driver and a positive feedback mechanism, which creates regular geometric and/or temporal patterns and decreases the entropy, in contrast to random processes. Here we investigate for the first time a comprehensive number of 16 self-organization processes that operate in planetary physics, solar physics, stellar physics, galactic physics, and cosmology. Self-organizing systems create spontaneous {\sl order out of chaos}, during the evolution from an initially disordered system to an ordered stationary system, via quasi-periodic limit-cycle dynamics, harmonic mechanical resonances, or gyromagnetic resonances. The internal driver can be gravity, rotation, thermal pressure, or acceleration of nonthermal particles, while the positive feedback mechanism is often an instability, such as the magneto-rotational instability, the Rayleigh-B\'enard convection instability, turbulence, vortex attraction, magnetic reconnection, plasma condensation, or loss-cone instability. Physical models of astrophysical self-organization processes involve hydrodynamic, MHD, and N-body formulations of Lotka-Volterra equation systems.Comment: 61 pages, 38 Figure

Mössbauer Spectrometry

Mössbauer spectrometry gives electronic, magnetic, and structural information from within materials. A Mössbauer spectrum is an intensity of γ-ray absorption versus energy for a specific resonant nucleus such as ^(57)Fe or ^(119)Sn. For one nucleus to emit a γ-ray and a second nucleus to absorb it with efficiency, both nuclei must be embedded in solids, a phenomenon known as the “Mössbauer effect.” Mössbauer spectrometry looks at materials from the “inside out,” where “inside” refers to the resonant nucleus. Mössbauer spectra give quantitative information on “hyperfine interactions,” which are small energies from the interaction between the nucleus and its neighboring electrons. The three hyperfine interactions originate from the electron density at the nucleus (the isomer shift), the gradient of the electric field (the nuclear quadrupole splitting), and the unpaired electron density at the nucleus (the hyperfine magnetic field). Over the years, methods have been refined for using these three hyperfine interactions to determine valence and spin at the resonant atom. Even when the hyperfine interactions are not easily interpreted, they can often be used reliably as “fingerprints” to identify the different local chemical environments of the resonant atom, usually with a good estimate of their fractional abundances. Mössbauer spectrometry is useful for quantitative phase analyses or determinations of the concentrations of resonant element in different phases, even when the phases are nanostructured or amorphous. Most Mössbauer spectra are acquired with simple laboratory equipment and a radioisotope source, but the recent development of synchrotron instrumentation now allow for measurements on small 10 µm samples, which may be exposed to extreme environments of pressure and temperature. Other capabilities include measurements of the vibrational spectra of the resonant atoms, and coherent scattering and diffraction of nuclear radiation. This article is not a review of the field, but an instructional reference that explains principles and practices, and gives the working materials scientist a basis for evaluating whether or not Mössbauer spectrometry may be useful for a research problem. A few representative materials studies are presented

Classification and Recovery of Radio Signals from Cosmic Ray Induced Air Showers with Deep Learning

Radio emission from air showers enables measurements of cosmic particle kinematics and identity. The radio signals are detected in broadband Megahertz antennas among continuous background noise. We present two deep learning concepts and their performance when applied to simulated data. The first network classifies time traces as signal or background. We achieve a true positive rate of about 90% for signal-to-noise ratios larger than three with a false positive rate below 0.2%. The other network is used to clean the time trace from background and to recover the radio time trace originating from an air shower. Here we achieve a resolution in the energy contained in the trace of about 20% without a bias for $80\%$ of the traces with a signal. The obtained frequency spectrum is cleaned from signals of radio frequency interference and shows the expected shape.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, resubmitted to JINS