An Ensemble Method of Deep Reinforcement Learning for Automated Cryptocurrency Trading

We propose an ensemble method to improve the generalization performance of trading strategies trained by deep reinforcement learning algorithms in a highly stochastic environment of intraday cryptocurrency portfolio trading. We adopt a model selection method that evaluates on multiple validation periods, and propose a novel mixture distribution policy to effectively ensemble the selected models. We provide a distributional view of the out-of-sample performance on granular test periods to demonstrate the robustness of the strategies in evolving market conditions, and retrain the models periodically to address non-stationarity of financial data. Our proposed ensemble method improves the out-of-sample performance compared with the benchmarks of a deep reinforcement learning strategy and a passive investment strategy

An Integrative Paradigm for Enhanced Stroke Prediction: Synergizing XGBoost and xDeepFM Algorithms

Stroke prediction plays a crucial role in preventing and managing this debilitating condition. In this study, we address the challenge of stroke prediction using a comprehensive dataset, and propose an ensemble model that combines the power of XGBoost and xDeepFM algorithms. Our work aims to improve upon existing stroke prediction models by achieving higher accuracy and robustness. Through rigorous experimentation, we validate the effectiveness of our ensemble model using the AUC metric. Through comparing our findings with those of other models in the field, we gain valuable insights into the merits and drawbacks of various approaches. This, in turn, contributes significantly to the progress of machine learning and deep learning techniques specifically in the domain of stroke prediction

Towards Robust Neural Networks via Random Self-ensemble

Recent studies have revealed the vulnerability of deep neural networks: A small adversarial perturbation that is imperceptible to human can easily make a well-trained deep neural network misclassify. This makes it unsafe to apply neural networks in security-critical applications. In this paper, we propose a new defense algorithm called Random Self-Ensemble (RSE) by combining two important concepts: {\bf randomness} and {\bf ensemble}. To protect a targeted model, RSE adds random noise layers to the neural network to prevent the strong gradient-based attacks, and ensembles the prediction over random noises to stabilize the performance. We show that our algorithm is equivalent to ensemble an infinite number of noisy models $f_\epsilon$ without any additional memory overhead, and the proposed training procedure based on noisy stochastic gradient descent can ensure the ensemble model has a good predictive capability. Our algorithm significantly outperforms previous defense techniques on real data sets. For instance, on CIFAR-10 with VGG network (which has 92\% accuracy without any attack), under the strong C\&W attack within a certain distortion tolerance, the accuracy of unprotected model drops to less than 10\%, the best previous defense technique has $48\%$ accuracy, while our method still has $86\%$ prediction accuracy under the same level of attack. Finally, our method is simple and easy to integrate into any neural network.Comment: ECCV 2018 camera read

Combining Pessimism with Optimism for Robust and Efficient Model-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning

In real-world tasks, reinforcement learning (RL) agents frequently encounter situations that are not present during training time. To ensure reliable performance, the RL agents need to exhibit robustness against worst-case situations. The robust RL framework addresses this challenge via a worst-case optimization between an agent and an adversary. Previous robust RL algorithms are either sample inefficient, lack robustness guarantees, or do not scale to large problems. We propose the Robust Hallucinated Upper-Confidence RL (RH-UCRL) algorithm to provably solve this problem while attaining near-optimal sample complexity guarantees. RH-UCRL is a model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) algorithm that effectively distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty and efficiently explores both the agent and adversary decision spaces during policy learning. We scale RH-UCRL to complex tasks via neural networks ensemble models as well as neural network policies. Experimentally, we demonstrate that RH-UCRL outperforms other robust deep RL algorithms in a variety of adversarial environments

RMSE-ELM: Recursive Model based Selective Ensemble of Extreme Learning Machines for Robustness Improvement

Extreme learning machine (ELM) as an emerging branch of shallow networks has shown its excellent generalization and fast learning speed. However, for blended data, the robustness of ELM is weak because its weights and biases of hidden nodes are set randomly. Moreover, the noisy data exert a negative effect. To solve this problem, a new framework called RMSE-ELM is proposed in this paper. It is a two-layer recursive model. In the first layer, the framework trains lots of ELMs in different groups concurrently, then employs selective ensemble to pick out an optimal set of ELMs in each group, which can be merged into a large group of ELMs called candidate pool. In the second layer, selective ensemble is recursively used on candidate pool to acquire the final ensemble. In the experiments, we apply UCI blended datasets to confirm the robustness of our new approach in two key aspects (mean square error and standard deviation). The space complexity of our method is increased to some degree, but the results have shown that RMSE-ELM significantly improves robustness with slightly computational time compared with representative methods (ELM, OP-ELM, GASEN-ELM, GASEN-BP and E-GASEN). It becomes a potential framework to solve robustness issue of ELM for high-dimensional blended data in the future.Comment: Accepted for publication in Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 09/22/201