Model ranog otkrivanja opasnosti - doprinos učinkovitosti sustava nadzora i upravljanja pomorskim prometom : doktorska disertacija

U ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji sustavno su sagledane mogućnosti učinkovitijeg nadzora pomorske plovidbe u pogledu sigurnosti plovidbe te očuvanja okoliša zbog povećanja broja i veličine brodova. Temeljem dobivenih rezultata, nakon provedenih istraživanja, definiran je model ranog otkrivanja opasnosti kao doprinos učinkovitosti sustava nadzora i upravljanja pomorskim prometom. Osnovna postavka modela zasniva se na zasebnom nadzoru putovanja broda u nadziranom području, kako s obzirom na interakciju broda s okolinom (nasukanje) tako i na međusobnu interakciju svih plovila u sustavu (sudar). Korištenjem spoznaja s postojećih sustava nadzora i upravljanja pomorskim prometom, analizom stručne i znanstvene literature, anketiranjem VTS operatora te istraživanjem na navigacijskom simulatoru utvrđene su mogućnosti izrade modela ranog otkrivanja opasnosti. U modelu se po prvi puta koristi procjena opasnosti i određuje mogućnost nezgoda unaprijed određivanjem položaja broda te predviđanjem njegovog, te položaja svih ostalih brodova u budućnosti, po principu 2D (geografske koordinate) + D (vrijeme). Uspoređujući podatke svakog pojedinog broda s cjelokupnom bazom podataka o stanju plovnog puta te stanju pomorskog prometa već unaprijed se otkrivaju potencijalne prijetnje sigurnosti plovidbe i okoliša. Kod predloženog modela ranog otkrivanja opasnosti domena broda definirana je kao kružnica opisana oko broda čime se mogu tumačiti i tri slučaja povrede domene promatranog broda (postoji povreda te se definira vrijeme ulaska i izlaska iz domene, granični slučaj povrede domene, te nema povrede domene promatranog broda). Za potrebe predviđanja položaja broda u prostoru razvijen je model predviđanja brzine broda. Navigacijski simulator je korišten za simuliranje učinka djelovanja vanjskih hidrometeoroloških utjecaja (brzina vjetra, visina vala, morska struja i smjer djelovanja) na brzinu promatranih brodova, a za izradu modela koristila se neuronska mreža.This doctoral thesis provides a systematic overview of the possibilities of a more effective sea navigation monitoring in terms of safety of navigation, and environment protection needed due to the increase in the number and size of ships. On the basis of the results gained by the undertaken research, a model of early danger detection has been defined in order to contribute to the effectiveness of the Vessel Traffic Service. The fundamental postulate of the model is based on a separate ship voyage monitoring in the monitored area, with respect to the ship’s interaction with the environment (grounding), as well as to the mutual interaction of all the vessels in the system (collision). With the help of the knowledge from the existing Vessel Traffic Services, expert and scientific literature analysis, surveys performed on VTS operators, and navigation simulator research, the possibilities of drawing up a model of early danger detection have been discovered. For the first time, the model facilitates danger estimation and determines the possibility of an accident beforehand by determining the ship's position, and predicting its position as well as the positions of other ships in the future by the principle of 2D (geographic coordinates) + D (time). By comparing the data of each ship with the entire data base regarding the waterway and sea traffic conditions, potential threats to the safety of navigation and the environment are detected in advance. In the proposed model of early danger detection, the ship's domain is defined as a circle around the ship, and it can be used to define three kinds of domain violations of the monitored ship (there is a violation and it is defined by the time of the entering and exiting the domain, the borderline case of domain violation, and there is no domain violation of the monitored ship). For reason of ship's position prediction in space, a ship's speed prediction model has been developed. A navigation simulator was used to simulate the effects of external hydrometeorological elements (wind velocity, wave height, sea current and the course of the elements) on the speed of the monitored ships, while a neural network was used for the making of the model

Model ranog otkrivanja opasnosti - doprinos učinkovitosti sustava nadzora i upravljanja pomorskim prometom : doktorska disertacija

U ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji sustavno su sagledane mogućnosti učinkovitijeg nadzora pomorske plovidbe u pogledu sigurnosti plovidbe te očuvanja okoliša zbog povećanja broja i veličine brodova. Temeljem dobivenih rezultata, nakon provedenih istraživanja, definiran je model ranog otkrivanja opasnosti kao doprinos učinkovitosti sustava nadzora i upravljanja pomorskim prometom. Osnovna postavka modela zasniva se na zasebnom nadzoru putovanja broda u nadziranom području, kako s obzirom na interakciju broda s okolinom (nasukanje) tako i na međusobnu interakciju svih plovila u sustavu (sudar). Korištenjem spoznaja s postojećih sustava nadzora i upravljanja pomorskim prometom, analizom stručne i znanstvene literature, anketiranjem VTS operatora te istraživanjem na navigacijskom simulatoru utvrđene su mogućnosti izrade modela ranog otkrivanja opasnosti. U modelu se po prvi puta koristi procjena opasnosti i određuje mogućnost nezgoda unaprijed određivanjem položaja broda te predviđanjem njegovog, te položaja svih ostalih brodova u budućnosti, po principu 2D (geografske koordinate) + D (vrijeme). Uspoređujući podatke svakog pojedinog broda s cjelokupnom bazom podataka o stanju plovnog puta te stanju pomorskog prometa već unaprijed se otkrivaju potencijalne prijetnje sigurnosti plovidbe i okoliša. Kod predloženog modela ranog otkrivanja opasnosti domena broda definirana je kao kružnica opisana oko broda čime se mogu tumačiti i tri slučaja povrede domene promatranog broda (postoji povreda te se definira vrijeme ulaska i izlaska iz domene, granični slučaj povrede domene, te nema povrede domene promatranog broda). Za potrebe predviđanja položaja broda u prostoru razvijen je model predviđanja brzine broda. Navigacijski simulator je korišten za simuliranje učinka djelovanja vanjskih hidrometeoroloških utjecaja (brzina vjetra, visina vala, morska struja i smjer djelovanja) na brzinu promatranih brodova, a za izradu modela koristila se neuronska mreža.This doctoral thesis provides a systematic overview of the possibilities of a more effective sea navigation monitoring in terms of safety of navigation, and environment protection needed due to the increase in the number and size of ships. On the basis of the results gained by the undertaken research, a model of early danger detection has been defined in order to contribute to the effectiveness of the Vessel Traffic Service. The fundamental postulate of the model is based on a separate ship voyage monitoring in the monitored area, with respect to the ship’s interaction with the environment (grounding), as well as to the mutual interaction of all the vessels in the system (collision). With the help of the knowledge from the existing Vessel Traffic Services, expert and scientific literature analysis, surveys performed on VTS operators, and navigation simulator research, the possibilities of drawing up a model of early danger detection have been discovered. For the first time, the model facilitates danger estimation and determines the possibility of an accident beforehand by determining the ship's position, and predicting its position as well as the positions of other ships in the future by the principle of 2D (geographic coordinates) + D (time). By comparing the data of each ship with the entire data base regarding the waterway and sea traffic conditions, potential threats to the safety of navigation and the environment are detected in advance. In the proposed model of early danger detection, the ship's domain is defined as a circle around the ship, and it can be used to define three kinds of domain violations of the monitored ship (there is a violation and it is defined by the time of the entering and exiting the domain, the borderline case of domain violation, and there is no domain violation of the monitored ship). For reason of ship's position prediction in space, a ship's speed prediction model has been developed. A navigation simulator was used to simulate the effects of external hydrometeorological elements (wind velocity, wave height, sea current and the course of the elements) on the speed of the monitored ships, while a neural network was used for the making of the model