COVID-19 and Beyond: Taming the Virtual Healthcare Tiger with Colored Petri Nets based Modeling and Simulation

The Coronavirus crisis has forced hospitals globally to develop new virtual service portals and systems to: 1) triage, diagnose, and manage new patients virtually for every clinical specialty at home as their symptoms emerge, avoiding COVID-19 exposure to patient or physicians, and hospitalization, as much as possible, and 2) discharge, track, and support recovered patients via homecare and virtual visits to free as many critical care beds as possible. This paper focuses on simulating and modeling an episode of care with innovative initial patient contact and triage processes using the Colored Petri Net (CPN) formalism to help optimize workflow, patient throughput, and overall system efficacy. The two patient triage programs under consideration are a health system in Australia and an orthopedic surgical program in the US. We describe our model for the US program. Our presented results establish a desired stratification of patients through a virtual musculoskeletal triage