The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

General highlight detection in sport videos

Attention is a psychological measurement of human reflection against stimulus. We propose a general framework of highlight detection by comparing attention intensity during the watching of sports videos. Three steps are involved: adaptive selection on salient features, unified attention estimation and highlight identification. Adaptive selection computes feature correlation to decide an optimal set of salient features. Unified estimation combines these features by the technique of multi-resolution autoregressive (MAR) and thus creates a temporal curve of attention intensity. We rank the intensity of attention to discriminate boundaries of highlights. Such a framework alleviates semantic uncertainty around sport highlights and leads to an efficient and effective highlight detection. The advantages are as follows: (1) the capability of using data at coarse temporal resolutions; (2) the robustness against noise caused by modality asynchronism, perception uncertainty and feature mismatch; (3) the employment of Markovian constrains on content presentation, and (4) multi-resolution estimation on attention intensity, which enables the precise allocation of event boundaries

Agrupamiento, predicción y clasificación ordinal para series temporales utilizando técnicas de machine learning: aplicaciones

In the last years, there has been an increase in the number of fields improving their standard processes by using machine learning (ML) techniques. The main reason for this is that the vast amount of data generated by these processes is difficult to be processed by humans. Therefore, the development of automatic methods to process and extract relevant information from these data processes is of great necessity, giving that these approaches could lead to an increase in the economic benefit of enterprises or to a reduction in the workload of some current employments. Concretely, in this Thesis, ML approaches are applied to problems concerning time series data. Time series is a special kind of data in which data points are collected chronologically. Time series are present in a wide variety of fields, such as atmospheric events or engineering applications. Besides, according to the main objective to be satisfied, there are different tasks in the literature applied to time series. Some of them are those on which this Thesis is mainly focused: clustering, classification, prediction and, in general, analysis. Generally, the amount of data to be processed is huge, arising the need of methods able to reduce the dimensionality of time series without decreasing the amount of information. In this sense, the application of time series segmentation procedures dividing the time series into different subsequences is a good option, given that each segment defines a specific behaviour. Once the different segments are obtained, the use of statistical features to characterise them is an excellent way to maximise the information of the time series and simultaneously reducing considerably their dimensionality. In the case of time series clustering, the objective is to find groups of similar time series with the idea of discovering interesting patterns in time series datasets. In this Thesis, we have developed a novel time series clustering technique. The aim of this proposal is twofold: to reduce as much as possible the dimensionality and to develop a time series clustering approach able to outperform current state-of-the-art techniques. In this sense, for the first objective, the time series are segmented in order to divide the them identifying different behaviours. Then, these segments are projected into a vector of statistical features aiming to reduce the dimensionality of the time series. Once this preprocessing step is done, the clustering of the time series is carried out, with a significantly lower computational load. This novel approach has been tested on all the time series datasets available in the University of East Anglia and University of California Riverside (UEA/UCR) time series classification (TSC) repository. Regarding time series classification, two main paths could be differentiated: firstly, nominal TSC, which is a well-known field involving a wide variety of proposals and transformations applied to time series. Concretely, one of the most popular transformation is the shapelet transform (ST), which has been widely used in this field. The original method extracts shapelets from the original time series and uses them for classification purposes. Nevertheless, the full enumeration of all possible shapelets is very time consuming. Therefore, in this Thesis, we have developed a hybrid method that starts with the best shapelets extracted by using the original approach with a time constraint and then tunes these shapelets by using a convolutional neural network (CNN) model. Secondly, time series ordinal classification (TSOC) is an unexplored field beginning with this Thesis. In this way, we have adapted the original ST to the ordinal classification (OC) paradigm by proposing several shapelet quality measures taking advantage of the ordinal information of the time series. This methodology leads to better results than the state-of-the-art TSC techniques for those ordinal time series datasets. All these proposals have been tested on all the time series datasets available in the UEA/UCR TSC repository. With respect to time series prediction, it is based on estimating the next value or values of the time series by considering the previous ones. In this Thesis, several different approaches have been considered depending on the problem to be solved. Firstly, the prediction of low-visibility events produced by fog conditions is carried out by means of hybrid autoregressive models (ARs) combining fixed-size and dynamic windows, adapting itself to the dynamics of the time series. Secondly, the prediction of convective cloud formation (which is a highly imbalance problem given that the number of convective cloud events is much lower than that of non-convective situations) is performed in two completely different ways: 1) tackling the problem as a multi-objective classification task by the use of multi-objective evolutionary artificial neural networks (MOEANNs), in which the two conflictive objectives are accuracy of the minority class and the global accuracy, and 2) tackling the problem from the OC point of view, in which, in order to reduce the imbalance degree, an oversampling approach is proposed along with the use of OC techniques. Thirdly, the prediction of solar radiation is carried out by means of evolutionary artificial neural networks (EANNs) with different combinations of basis functions in the hidden and output layers. Finally, the last challenging problem is the prediction of energy flux from waves and tides. For this, a multitask EANN has been proposed aiming to predict the energy flux at several prediction time horizons (from 6h to 48h). All these proposals and techniques have been corroborated and discussed according to physical and atmospheric models. The work developed in this Thesis is supported by 11 JCR-indexed papers in international journals (7 Q1, 3 Q2, 1 Q3), 11 papers in international conferences, and 4 papers in national conferences

Context-awareness for mobile sensing: a survey and future directions

The evolution of smartphones together with increasing computational power have empowered developers to create innovative context-aware applications for recognizing user related social and cognitive activities in any situation and at any location. The existence and awareness of the context provides the capability of being conscious of physical environments or situations around mobile device users. This allows network services to respond proactively and intelligently based on such awareness. The key idea behind context-aware applications is to encourage users to collect, analyze and share local sensory knowledge in the purpose for a large scale community use by creating a smart network. The desired network is capable of making autonomous logical decisions to actuate environmental objects, and also assist individuals. However, many open challenges remain, which are mostly arisen due to the middleware services provided in mobile devices have limited resources in terms of power, memory and bandwidth. Thus, it becomes critically important to study how the drawbacks can be elaborated and resolved, and at the same time better understand the opportunities for the research community to contribute to the context-awareness. To this end, this paper surveys the literature over the period of 1991-2014 from the emerging concepts to applications of context-awareness in mobile platforms by providing up-to-date research and future research directions. Moreover, it points out the challenges faced in this regard and enlighten them by proposing possible solutions

A Multiple Imputation Strategy for Eddy Covariance Data

Half-hourly time series of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux (H) measured through the micro-meteorological eddy covariance (EC) technique are noisy and show a high percentage of missing data. By using EC measurements that are part of the FLUXNET2015 dataset, we evaluate the performance of a multiple imputation (MI) strategy based on an efficient computational strategy introduced in Honaker and King (2010), combining the classic Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm with a bootstrap approach, in order to take draws from a suitable approximation of posterior distribution of model parameters. Armed with these instruments, we are able to introduce three new multiple imputation models, characterized by an increasing level of complexity, and built on top of multivariate normality assumption: 1) MLR, which imputes EC missing values using a static multiple linear regression of observed values of suitable input variables; 2) ADL, which enriches with dynamic properties the static specification of MLR, by considering an autoregressive distributed lag specification; 3) PADL, which adds further complexity by embedding the ADL model in a panel-data perspective. Under several artificial gap scenarios, we show that PADL has a better ability in modeling the complex dynamics of ecosystem fluxes and reconstructing missing data points, thus providing unbiased imputations and preserving the original sampling distribution. The added flexibility arising from the time series cross section structure of PADL warrants improved performances, outperforming those of other imputation methods, as well as of the marginal distribution sampling algorithm (MDS), a widely used gap- filling approach introduced by Reichstein et al. (2005), especially in the case of nighttime flux data. It is expected that the strategy proposed in this paper will become useful in creating multiple imputations for a variety of EC datasets, providing valid inferences for a broad range of scientific estimands (such as annual budgets)