MODELLING EXPECTATIONS WITH GENEFER- AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPROACH

Economic modelling of financial markets means to model highly complex systems in which expectations can be the dominant driving forces. Therefore it is necessary to focus on how agents form their expectations. We believe that they look for patterns, hypothesize, try, make mistakes, learn and adapt. AgentsÆ bounded rationality leads us to a rule-based approach which we model using Fuzzy Rule-Bases. E. g. if a single agent believes the exchange rate is determined by a set of possible inputs and is asked to put their relationship in words his answer will probably reveal a fuzzy nature like: "IF the inflation rate in the EURO-Zone is low and the GDP growth rate is larger than in the US THEN the EURO will rise against the USD". æLowÆ and ælargerÆ are fuzzy terms which give a gradual linguistic meaning to crisp intervalls in the respective universes of discourse. In order to learn a Fuzzy Fuzzy Rule base from examples we introduce Genetic Algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks as learning operators. These examples can either be empirical data or originate from an economic simulation model. The software GENEFER (GEnetic NEural Fuzzy ExplorER) has been developed for designing such a Fuzzy Rule Base. The design process is modular and comprises Input Identification, Fuzzification, Rule-Base Generating and Rule-Base Tuning. The two latter steps make use of genetic and neural learning algorithms for optimizing the Fuzzy Rule-Base.

Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Online Multi-Stage Deep Architectures for Feature Extraction and Object Recognition

Multi-stage visual architectures have recently found success in achieving high classification accuracies over image datasets with large variations in pose, lighting, and scale. Inspired by techniques currently at the forefront of deep learning, such architectures are typically composed of one or more layers of preprocessing, feature encoding, and pooling to extract features from raw images. Training these components traditionally relies on large sets of patches that are extracted from a potentially large image dataset. In this context, high-dimensional feature space representations are often helpful for obtaining the best classification performances and providing a higher degree of invariance to object transformations. Large datasets with high-dimensional features complicate the implementation of visual architectures in memory constrained environments. This dissertation constructs online learning replacements for the components within a multi-stage architecture and demonstrates that the proposed replacements (namely fuzzy competitive clustering, an incremental covariance estimator, and multi-layer neural network) can offer performance competitive with their offline batch counterparts while providing a reduced memory footprint. The online nature of this solution allows for the development of a method for adjusting parameters within the architecture via stochastic gradient descent. Testing over multiple datasets shows the potential benefits of this methodology when appropriate priors on the initial parameters are unknown. Alternatives to batch based decompositions for a whitening preprocessing stage which take advantage of natural image statistics and allow simple dictionary learners to work well in the problem domain are also explored. Expansions of the architecture using additional pooling statistics and multiple layers are presented and indicate that larger codebook sizes are not the only step forward to higher classification accuracies. Experimental results from these expansions further indicate the important role of sparsity and appropriate encodings within multi-stage visual feature extraction architectures

Artificial Neural Network and its Applications in the Energy Sector – An Overview

In order to realize the goal of optimal use of energy sources and cleaner environment at a minimal cost, researchers; field professionals; and industrialists have identified the expediency of harnessing the computational benefits provided by artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. This article provides an overview of AI, chronological blueprints of the emergence of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and some of its applications in the energy sector. This short survey reveals that despite the initial hiccups at the developmental stages of ANNs, ANN has tremendously evolved, is still evolving and have been found to be effective in handling highly complex problems even in the areas of modeling, control, and optimization, to mention a few

Performance of Anti-Lock Braking Systems Based on Adaptive and Intelligent Control Methodologies

Automobiles of today must constantly change their speeds in reaction to changing road and traffic circumstances as the pace and density of road traffic increases. In sophisticated automobiles, the Anti-lock Braking System (ABS) is a vehicle safety system that enhances the vehicle's stability and steering capabilities by varying the torque to maintain the slip ratio at a safe level. This paper analyzes the performance of classical control, model reference adaptive control (MRAC), and intelligent control for controlling the (ABS). The ABS controller's goal is to keep the wheel slip ratio, which includes nonlinearities, parametric uncertainties, and disturbances as close to an optimal slip value as possible. This will decrease the stopping distance and guarantee safe vehicle operation during braking. A Bang-bang controller, PID, PID based Model Reference Adaptive Control (PID-MRAD), Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) controller are used to control the vehicle model. The car was tested on a dry asphalt and ice road with only straight-line braking. Based on slip ratio, vehicle speed, angular velocity, and stopping time, comparisons are performed between all control strategies. To analyze braking characteristics, the simulation changes the road surface condition, vehicle weight, and control methods. The simulation results revealed that our objectives were met. The simulation results clearly show that the ANFIS provides more flexibility and improves system-tracking precision in control action compared to the Bang-bang, PID, PID-MRAC, and FLC