13 research outputs found
Efficient Bayesian Learning in Social Networks with Gaussian Estimators
We consider a group of Bayesian agents who try to estimate a state of the
world through interaction on a social network. Each agent
initially receives a private measurement of : a number picked
from a Gaussian distribution with mean and standard deviation one.
Then, in each discrete time iteration, each reveals its estimate of to
its neighbors, and, observing its neighbors' actions, updates its belief using
Bayes' Law.
This process aggregates information efficiently, in the sense that all the
agents converge to the belief that they would have, had they access to all the
private measurements. We show that this process is computationally efficient,
so that each agent's calculation can be easily carried out. We also show that
on any graph the process converges after at most steps, where
is the number of agents and is the diameter of the network. Finally, we
show that on trees and on distance transitive-graphs the process converges
after steps, and that it preserves privacy, so that agents learn very
little about the private signal of most other agents, despite the efficient
aggregation of information. Our results extend those in an unpublished
manuscript of the first and last authors.Comment: Added coauthor. Added proofs for fast convergence on trees and
distance transitive graphs. Also, now analyzing a notion of privac
Exponentially Fast Parameter Estimation in Networks Using Distributed Dual Averaging
In this paper we present an optimization-based view of distributed parameter
estimation and observational social learning in networks. Agents receive a
sequence of random, independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) signals,
each of which individually may not be informative about the underlying true
state, but the signals together are globally informative enough to make the
true state identifiable. Using an optimization-based characterization of
Bayesian learning as proximal stochastic gradient descent (with
Kullback-Leibler divergence from a prior as a proximal function), we show how
to efficiently use a distributed, online variant of Nesterov's dual averaging
method to solve the estimation with purely local information. When the true
state is globally identifiable, and the network is connected, we prove that
agents eventually learn the true parameter using a randomized gossip scheme. We
demonstrate that with high probability the convergence is exponentially fast
with a rate dependent on the KL divergence of observations under the true state
from observations under the second likeliest state. Furthermore, our work also
highlights the possibility of learning under continuous adaptation of network
which is a consequence of employing constant, unit stepsize for the algorithm.Comment: 6 pages, To appear in Conference on Decision and Control 201
Complexity of Bayesian Belief Exchange over a Network
Many important real-world decision making prob- lems involve group interactions among individuals with purely informational externalities, such situations arise for example in jury deliberations, expert committees, medical diagnosis, etc. In this paper, we will use the framework of iterated eliminations to model the decision problem as well as the thinking process of a Bayesian agent in a group decision/discussion scenario. We model the purely informational interactions of rational agents in a group, where they receive private information and act based upon that information while also observing other people’s beliefs. As the Bayesian agent attempts to infer the true state of the world from her sequence of observations which include her neighbors’ beliefs as well as her own private signal, she recursively refines her belief about the signals that other players could have observed and beliefs that they would have hold given the assumption that other players are also rational. We further analyze the computational complexity of the Bayesian belief formation in groups and show that it is NP -hard. We also investigate the factors underlying this computational complexity and show how belief calculations simplify in special network structures or cases with strong inherent symmetries. We finally give insights about the statistical efficiency (optimality) of the beliefs and its relations to computational efficiency.United States. Army Research Office (grant MURI W911NF-12- 1-0509)National Science Foundation (U.S.). Computing and Communication Foundation (grant CCF 1665252)United States. Department of Defense (ONR grant N00014-17-1-2598)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant DMS-1737944
Bayesian Quadratic Network Game Filters
A repeated network game where agents have quadratic utilities that depend on
information externalities -- an unknown underlying state -- as well as payoff
externalities -- the actions of all other agents in the network -- is
considered. Agents play Bayesian Nash Equilibrium strategies with respect to
their beliefs on the state of the world and the actions of all other nodes in
the network. These beliefs are refined over subsequent stages based on the
observed actions of neighboring peers. This paper introduces the Quadratic
Network Game (QNG) filter that agents can run locally to update their beliefs,
select corresponding optimal actions, and eventually learn a sufficient
statistic of the network's state. The QNG filter is demonstrated on a Cournot
market competition game and a coordination game to implement navigation of an
autonomous team
Opinion Exchange Dynamics
We survey a range of models of opinion exchange. From the introduction: "The
exchange of opinions between individuals is a fundamental social interaction...
Moreover, many models in this field are an excellent playground for
mathematicians, especially those working in probability, algorithms and
combinatorics. The goal of this survey is to introduce such models to
mathematicians, and especially to those working in discrete mathematics,
information theory, optimization, probability and statistics."Comment: 62 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with
arXiv:1207.589