Spatial-temporal diffusion model of aggregated infectious diseases based on population life characteristics: a case study of COVID-19

Outbreaks of infectious diseases pose significant threats to human life, and countries around the world need to implement more precise prevention and control measures to contain the spread of viruses. In this study, we propose a spatial-temporal diffusion model of infectious diseases under a discrete grid, based on the time series prediction of infectious diseases, to model the diffusion process of viruses in population. This model uses the estimated outbreak origin as the center of transmission, employing a tree-like structure of daily human travel to generalize the process of viral spread within the population. By incorporating diverse data, it simulates the congregation of people, thus quantifying the flow weights between grids for population movement. The model is validated with some Chinese cities with COVID-19 outbreaks, and the results show that the outbreak point estimation method could better estimate the virus transmission center of the epidemic. The estimated location of the outbreak point in Xi'an was only 0.965 km different from the actual one, and the results were more satisfactory. The spatiotemporal diffusion model for infectious diseases simulates daily newly infected areas, which effectively cover the actual patient infection zones on the same day. During the mid-stage of viral transmission, the coverage rate can increase to over 90%, compared to related research, this method has improved simulation accuracy by approximately 18%. This study can provide technical support for epidemic prevention and control, and assist decision-makers in developing more scientific and efficient epidemic prevention and control policies

Data-Centric Epidemic Forecasting: A Survey

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently conceptualized as being analogous to weather forecasting, however it has some key differences and remains a non-trivial task. The spread of diseases is subject to multiple confounding factors spanning human behavior, pathogen dynamics, weather and environmental conditions. Research interest has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources capturing previously unobservable facets and also due to initiatives from government public health and funding agencies. This has resulted, in particular, in a spate of work on 'data-centered' solutions which have shown potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities by leveraging non-traditional data sources as well as recent innovations in AI and machine learning. This survey delves into various data-driven methodological and practical advancements and introduces a conceptual framework to navigate through them. First, we enumerate the large number of epidemiological datasets and novel data streams that are relevant to epidemic forecasting, capturing various factors like symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce, mobility, genomics data and more. Next, we discuss methods and modeling paradigms focusing on the recent data-driven statistical and deep-learning based methods as well as on the novel class of hybrid models that combine domain knowledge of mechanistic models with the effectiveness and flexibility of statistical approaches. We also discuss experiences and challenges that arise in real-world deployment of these forecasting systems including decision-making informed by forecasts. Finally, we highlight some challenges and open problems found across the forecasting pipeline.Comment: 67 pages, 12 figure

Human Mobility Monitoring using WiFi: Analysis, Modeling, and Applications

Understanding and modeling humans and device mobility has fundamental importance in mobile computing, with implications ranging from network design and location-aware technologies to urban infrastructure planning. Today\u27s users carry a plethora of devices such as smartphones, laptops, tablets, and smartwatches, with each device offering a different set of services resulting in different usage and mobility leading to the research question of understanding and modeling multiple user device trajectories. Additionally, prior research on mobility focuses on outdoor mobility when it is known that users spend 80% of their time indoors resulting in wide gaps in knowledge in the area of indoor mobility of users and devices. Here, I try to fill the gaps in mobility modeling in the areas of understanding and modeling indoor-outdoor human mobility as well as multi-device mobility. In this thesis, I propose the characterization and modeling of human and device mobility. Further, I design and deploy mobility-aware applications for contact tracing of infectious diseases and energy-aware Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) scheduling. I try and answer a sequence of four primary inter-related questions : (1) how is indoor and outdoor user mobility different, (2) are multiple device trajectories belonging to a single user correlated, (3) how to model indoor mobility of users and (4) how to design effective mobility aware applications that are easily deployable and align with long term goals of sustainability as well relay positive societal impact. The insights gained from each question serves as a base to build up on the next question in the series. I present answers to these questions across three main parts of my thesis. The first part comprises of characterization and analysis of human and device mobility. In this part I design and develop tool to extract device trajectories from WiFi system logs syslog and map devices to users. These extracted trajectories and device to user mapping are used to characterize and empirically analyze the mobility of users at varying spatial granularity (indoor, outdoor) and extract device mobility correlations between multiple devices of users and forms the first part of my thesis. In the second part, based on the insights gained from the multi-granular and multi-device mobility characterization stated above, I argue that mobility is inherently hierarchical in nature and propose novel indoor human mobility modeling approach. Third, I leverage the passively observed mobility to design mobility-aware applications that either look back or look ahead in time. WiFiTrace is a look back or backtracking application that is a network-centric contact tracing tool to aid healthcare workers in manual contact tracing of infectious diseases and iSchedule is a look ahead machine learning based mobility-aware energy-saving application that predicts Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) schedule for higher energy savings while increasing user comfort