How Computational Statistics Became the Backbone of Modern Data Science

This first chapter serves as an introduction and overview for a collection of articles surveying the current state of the science of computational statistics. Earlier versions of most of these articles appeared in the first edition of Handbook of Computational Statistics: Concepts and Methods, published in 2004. There have been advances in all of the areas of computational statistics, so we feel that it is time to revise and update this Handbook. This introduction is a revision of the introductory chapter of the first edition.Discrete time series models, continuous time diffusion models, models with jumps, stochastic volatility, GARCH

Considerations for a design and operations knowledge support system for Space Station Freedom

Engineering and operations of modern engineered systems depend critically upon detailed design and operations knowledge that is accurate and authoritative. A design and operations knowledge support system (DOKSS) is a modern computer-based information system providing knowledge about the creation, evolution, and growth of an engineered system. The purpose of a DOKSS is to provide convenient and effective access to this multifaceted information. The complexity of Space Station Freedom's (SSF's) systems, elements, interfaces, and organizations makes convenient access to design knowledge especially important, when compared to simpler systems. The life cycle length, being 30 or more years, adds a new dimension to space operations, maintenance, and evolution. Provided here is a review and discussion of design knowledge support systems to be delivered and operated as a critical part of the engineered system. A concept of a DOKSS for Space Station Freedom (SSF) is presented. This is followed by a detailed discussion of a DOKSS for the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center and Work Package-2 portions of SSF

Calculating the Cost of Environmental Regulation

Decisions concerning environmental protection hinge on estimates of economic burden. Over the past 30 years, economists have developed and applied various tools to measure this burden. In this paper, developed as a chapter for the Handbook of Environmental Economics, we present a taxonomy of costs along with methods for measuring those costs. At the broadest level, we distinguish between partial and general equilibrium costs. Partial equilibrium costs represent the burden directly borne by the regulated entity (firms, households, government), including both pecuniary and nonpecuniary expenses, when prices are held constant. General equilibrium costs reflect the net burden once all good and factor markets have equilibrated. In addition to partial equilibrium costs, these general equilibrium costs include welfare losses or gains in markets with preexisting distortions, welfare losses or gains from rebalancing the government's budget constraint, and welfare gains from the added flexibility of meeting pollution constraints through reductions in the use of higher-priced, pollution-intensive products. In addition to both partial and general equilibrium costs, we also consider the distribution of costs across households, countries, sectors, subnational regions, and generations. Despite improvements in our understanding of cost measurement, we find considerable opportunity for further work and, especially, better application of existing methods.social cost, cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, environmental regulation

A Dual Method of Empirically Evaluating Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium Models with Market Distortions, Applied to the Great Depression & World War II

I prove some theorems for competitive equilibria in the presence of market distortions, and use those theorems to motivate an algorithm for (simply and exactly) computing and empirically evaluating competitive equilibria for dynamic economies. Although a competitive equilibrium models interactions between all sectors, all consumer types, and all time periods, I show how my algorithm permits separate empirical evaluation of these pieces of the model and hence is practical even when very little data is available. I then compute a neoclassical growth model with distortionary taxes that fits aggregate U.S. time series for the period 1929-50 and conclude that, if it is to explain aggregate behavior during the period, government policy must have heavily taxed labor income during the Great Depression and lightly taxed it during the war. In other words, the challenge for the competitive equilibrium approach is not so much why output might change over time, but why the marginal product of labor and the marginal value of leisure diverged so much and why that wedge persisted so long. In this sense, explaining aggregate behavior during the period has been reduced to a public finance question -- were actual government policies distorting behavior in the same direction and magnitude as government policies in the model?

National productivity statistics

Productivity