Scaling laws for the movement of people between locations in a large city

Large scale simulations of the movements of people in a ``virtual'' city and their analyses are used to generate new insights into understanding the dynamic processes that depend on the interactions between people. Models, based on these interactions, can be used in optimizing traffic flow, slowing the spread of infectious diseases or predicting the change in cell phone usage in a disaster. We analyzed cumulative and aggregated data generated from the simulated movements of 1.6 million individuals in a computer (pseudo agent-based) model during a typical day in Portland, Oregon. This city is mapped into a graph with $181,206$ nodes representing physical locations such as buildings. Connecting edges model individual's flow between nodes. Edge weights are constructed from the daily traffic of individuals moving between locations. The number of edges leaving a node (out-degree), the edge weights (out-traffic), and the edge-weights per location (total out-traffic) are fitted well by power law distributions. The power law distributions also fit subgraphs based on work, school, and social/recreational activities. The resulting weighted graph is a ``small world'' and has scaling laws consistent with an underlying hierarchical structure. We also explore the time evolution of the largest connected component and the distribution of the component sizes. We observe a strong linear correlation between the out-degree and total out-traffic distributions and significant levels of clustering. We discuss how these network features can be used to characterize social networks and their relationship to dynamic processes.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure

Beyond Counting: New Perspectives on the Active IPv4 Address Space

In this study, we report on techniques and analyses that enable us to capture Internet-wide activity at individual IP address-level granularity by relying on server logs of a large commercial content delivery network (CDN) that serves close to 3 trillion HTTP requests on a daily basis. Across the whole of 2015, these logs recorded client activity involving 1.2 billion unique IPv4 addresses, the highest ever measured, in agreement with recent estimates. Monthly client IPv4 address counts showed constant growth for years prior, but since 2014, the IPv4 count has stagnated while IPv6 counts have grown. Thus, it seems we have entered an era marked by increased complexity, one in which the sole enumeration of active IPv4 addresses is of little use to characterize recent growth of the Internet as a whole. With this observation in mind, we consider new points of view in the study of global IPv4 address activity. Our analysis shows significant churn in active IPv4 addresses: the set of active IPv4 addresses varies by as much as 25% over the course of a year. Second, by looking across the active addresses in a prefix, we are able to identify and attribute activity patterns to network restructurings, user behaviors, and, in particular, various address assignment practices. Third, by combining spatio-temporal measures of address utilization with measures of traffic volume, and sampling-based estimates of relative host counts, we present novel perspectives on worldwide IPv4 address activity, including empirical observation of under-utilization in some areas, and complete utilization, or exhaustion, in others.Comment: in Proceedings of ACM IMC 201

Long-term power-law fluctuation in Internet traffic

Power-law fluctuation in observed Internet packet flow are discussed. The data is obtained by a multi router traffic grapher (MRTG) system for 9 months. The internet packet flow is analyzed using the detrended fluctuation analysis. By extracting the average daily trend, the data shows clear power-law fluctuations. The exponents of the fluctuation for the incoming and outgoing flow are almost unity. Internet traffic can be understood as a daily periodic flow with power-law fluctuations.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figure

Scaling laws of human interaction activity

Even though people in our contemporary, technological society are depending on communication, our understanding of the underlying laws of human communicational behavior continues to be poorly understood. Here we investigate the communication patterns in two social Internet communities in search of statistical laws in human interaction activity. This research reveals that human communication networks dynamically follow scaling laws that may also explain the observed trends in economic growth. Specifically, we identify a generalized version of Gibrat's law of social activity expressed as a scaling law between the fluctuations in the number of messages sent by members and their level of activity. Gibrat's law has been essential in understanding economic growth patterns, yet without an underlying general principle for its origin. We attribute this scaling law to long-term correlation patterns in human activity, which surprisingly span from days to the entire period of the available data of more than one year. Further, we provide a mathematical framework that relates the generalized version of Gibrat's law to the long-term correlated dynamics, which suggests that the same underlying mechanism could be the source of Gibrat's law in economics, ranging from large firms, research and development expenditures, gross domestic product of countries, to city population growth. These findings are also of importance for designing communication networks and for the understanding of the dynamics of social systems in which communication plays a role, such as economic markets and political systems.Comment: 20+7 pages, 4+2 figure

A survey on Human Mobility and its applications

Human Mobility has attracted attentions from different fields of studies such as epidemic modeling, traffic engineering, traffic prediction and urban planning. In this survey we review major characteristics of human mobility studies including from trajectory-based studies to studies using graph and network theory. In trajectory-based studies statistical measures such as jump length distribution and radius of gyration are analyzed in order to investigate how people move in their daily life, and if it is possible to model this individual movements and make prediction based on them. Using graph in mobility studies, helps to investigate the dynamic behavior of the system, such as diffusion and flow in the network and makes it easier to estimate how much one part of the network influences another by using metrics like centrality measures. We aim to study population flow in transportation networks using mobility data to derive models and patterns, and to develop new applications in predicting phenomena such as congestion. Human Mobility studies with the new generation of mobility data provided by cellular phone networks, arise new challenges such as data storing, data representation, data analysis and computation complexity. A comparative review of different data types used in current tools and applications of Human Mobility studies leads us to new approaches for dealing with mentioned challenges

Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit