Evolutionary multi-stage financial scenario tree generation

Multi-stage financial decision optimization under uncertainty depends on a careful numerical approximation of the underlying stochastic process, which describes the future returns of the selected assets or asset categories. Various approaches towards an optimal generation of discrete-time, discrete-state approximations (represented as scenario trees) have been suggested in the literature. In this paper, a new evolutionary algorithm to create scenario trees for multi-stage financial optimization models will be presented. Numerical results and implementation details conclude the paper

A comparison of sample-based Stochastic Optimal Control methods

In this paper, we compare the performance of two scenario-based numerical methods to solve stochastic optimal control problems: scenario trees and particles. The problem consists in finding strategies to control a dynamical system perturbed by exogenous noises so as to minimize some expected cost along a discrete and finite time horizon. We introduce the Mean Squared Error (MSE) which is the expected $L^2$-distance between the strategy given by the algorithm and the optimal strategy, as a performance indicator for the two models. We study the behaviour of the MSE with respect to the number of scenarios used for discretization. The first model, widely studied in the Stochastic Programming community, consists in approximating the noise diffusion using a scenario tree representation. On a numerical example, we observe that the number of scenarios needed to obtain a given precision grows exponentially with the time horizon. In that sense, our conclusion on scenario trees is equivalent to the one in the work by Shapiro (2006) and has been widely noticed by practitioners. However, in the second part, we show using the same example that, by mixing Stochastic Programming and Dynamic Programming ideas, the particle method described by Carpentier et al (2009) copes with this numerical difficulty: the number of scenarios needed to obtain a given precision now does not depend on the time horizon. Unfortunately, we also observe that serious obstacles still arise from the system state space dimension

Risk-Averse Model Predictive Operation Control of Islanded Microgrids

In this paper we present a risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) scheme for the operation of islanded microgrids with very high share of renewable energy sources. The proposed scheme mitigates the effect of errors in the determination of the probability distribution of renewable infeed and load. This allows to use less complex and less accurate forecasting methods and to formulate low-dimensional scenario-based optimisation problems which are suitable for control applications. Additionally, the designer may trade performance for safety by interpolating between the conventional stochastic and worst-case MPC formulations. The presented risk-averse MPC problem is formulated as a mixed-integer quadratically-constrained quadratic problem and its favourable characteristics are demonstrated in a case study. This includes a sensitivity analysis that illustrates the robustness to load and renewable power prediction errors

Model-Based Security Testing

Security testing aims at validating software system requirements related to security properties like confidentiality, integrity, authentication, authorization, availability, and non-repudiation. Although security testing techniques are available for many years, there has been little approaches that allow for specification of test cases at a higher level of abstraction, for enabling guidance on test identification and specification as well as for automated test generation. Model-based security testing (MBST) is a relatively new field and especially dedicated to the systematic and efficient specification and documentation of security test objectives, security test cases and test suites, as well as to their automated or semi-automated generation. In particular, the combination of security modelling and test generation approaches is still a challenge in research and of high interest for industrial applications. MBST includes e.g. security functional testing, model-based fuzzing, risk- and threat-oriented testing, and the usage of security test patterns. This paper provides a survey on MBST techniques and the related models as well as samples of new methods and tools that are under development in the European ITEA2-project DIAMONDS.Comment: In Proceedings MBT 2012, arXiv:1202.582

Pricing and Hedging GLWB in the Heston and in the Black-Scholes with Stochastic Interest Rate Models

Valuing Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) has attracted significant attention from both the academic field and real world financial markets. As remarked by Forsyth and Vetzal the Black and Scholes framework seems to be inappropriate for such long maturity products. They propose to use a regime switching model. Alternatively, we propose here to use a stochastic volatility model (Heston model) and a Black Scholes model with stochastic interest rate (Hull White model). For this purpose we present four numerical methods for pricing GLWB variables annuities: a hybrid tree-finite difference method and a hybrid Monte Carlo method, an ADI finite difference scheme, and a standard Monte Carlo method. These methods are used to determine the no-arbitrage fee for the most popular versions of the GLWB contract, and to calculate the Greeks used in hedging. Both constant withdrawal and optimal withdrawal (including lapsation) strategies are considered. Numerical results are presented which demonstrate the sensitivity of the no-arbitrage fee to economic, contractual and longevity assumptions

A Consensus-ADMM Approach for Strategic Generation Investment in Electricity Markets

This paper addresses a multi-stage generation investment problem for a strategic (price-maker) power producer in electricity markets. This problem is exposed to different sources of uncertainty, including short-term operational (e.g., rivals' offering strategies) and long-term macro (e.g., demand growth) uncertainties. This problem is formulated as a stochastic bilevel optimization problem, which eventually recasts as a large-scale stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem with limited computational tractability. To cope with computational issues, we propose a consensus version of alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), which decomposes the original problem by both short- and long-term scenarios. Although the convergence of ADMM to the global solution cannot be generally guaranteed for MILP problems, we introduce two bounds on the optimal solution, allowing for the evaluation of the solution quality over iterations. Our numerical findings show that there is a trade-off between computational time and solution quality

Planning for Decentralized Control of Multiple Robots Under Uncertainty

We describe a probabilistic framework for synthesizing control policies for general multi-robot systems, given environment and sensor models and a cost function. Decentralized, partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) are a general model of decision processes where a team of agents must cooperate to optimize some objective (specified by a shared reward or cost function) in the presence of uncertainty, but where communication limitations mean that the agents cannot share their state, so execution must proceed in a decentralized fashion. While Dec-POMDPs are typically intractable to solve for real-world problems, recent research on the use of macro-actions in Dec-POMDPs has significantly increased the size of problem that can be practically solved as a Dec-POMDP. We describe this general model, and show how, in contrast to most existing methods that are specialized to a particular problem class, it can synthesize control policies that use whatever opportunities for coordination are present in the problem, while balancing off uncertainty in outcomes, sensor information, and information about other agents. We use three variations on a warehouse task to show that a single planner of this type can generate cooperative behavior using task allocation, direct communication, and signaling, as appropriate