Directly Learning Tractable Models for Sequential Inference and DecisionMaking

Probabilistic graphical models such as Bayesian networks and Markov networks provide a general framework to represent multivariate distributions while exploiting conditional independence. Over the years, many approaches have been proposed to learn the structure of those networks. However, even if the resulting network is small, inference may be intractable (e.g., exponential in the size of the network) and practitioners must often resort to approximate inference techniques. Recent work has focused on the development of alternative graphical models such as arithmetic circuits (ACs) and sum-product networks (SPNs) for which inference is guaranteed to be tractable (e.g., linear in the size of the network for SPNs and ACs). This means that the networks learned from data can be directly used for inference without any further approximation. So far, previous work has focused on learning models with only random variables and for a fixed number of variables based on fixed-length data. In this thesis, I present two new probabilistic graphical models: Dynamic Sum-Product Networks (DynamicSPNs) and Decision Sum-Product-Max Networks (DecisionSPMNs), where the former is suitable for problems with sequence data of varying length and the latter is for problems with random, decision, and utility variables. Similar to SPNs and ACs, DynamicSPNs and DecisionSPMNs can be learned directly from data with guaranteed tractable exact inference and decision making in the resulting models. I also present a new online Bayesian discriminative learning algorithm for Selective Sum-Product Networks (SSPNs), which are a special class of SPNs with no latent variables. This new learning algorithm achieves tractability by utilizing a novel idea of mode matching, where the algorithm chooses a tractable distribution that matches the mode of the exact posterior after processing each training instance. This approach lends itself naturally to distributed learning since the data can be divided into subsets based on which partial posteriors are computed by different machines and combined into a single posterior

Conditional Sum-Product Networks: Imposing Structure on Deep Probabilistic Architectures

Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expressive power of intractable models based on deep neural networks. Therefore, we introduce conditional SPNs (CSPNs), conditional density estimators for multivariate and potentially hybrid domains which allow harnessing the expressive power of neural networks while still maintaining tractability guarantees. One way to implement CSPNs is to use an existing SPN structure and condition its parameters on the input, e.g., via a deep neural network. This approach, however, might misrepresent the conditional independence structure present in data. Consequently, we also develop a structure-learning approach that derives both the structure and parameters of CSPNs from data. Our experimental evidence demonstrates that CSPNs are competitive with other probabilistic models and yield superior performance on multilabel image classification compared to mean field and mixture density networks. Furthermore, they can successfully be employed as building blocks for structured probabilistic models, such as autoregressive image models.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Sequence Classification Restricted Boltzmann Machines With Gated Units

For the classification of sequential data, dynamic Bayesian networks and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are the preferred models. While the former can explicitly model the temporal dependences between the variables, and the latter have the capability of learning representations. The recurrent temporal restricted Boltzmann machine (RTRBM) is a model that combines these two features. However, learning and inference in RTRBMs can be difficult because of the exponential nature of its gradient computations when maximizing log likelihoods. In this article, first, we address this intractability by optimizing a conditional rather than a joint probability distribution when performing sequence classification. This results in the ``sequence classification restricted Boltzmann machine'' (SCRBM). Second, we introduce gated SCRBMs (gSCRBMs), which use an information processing gate, as an integration of SCRBMs with long short-term memory (LSTM) models. In the experiments reported in this article, we evaluate the proposed models on optical character recognition, chunking, and multiresident activity recognition in smart homes. The experimental results show that gSCRBMs achieve the performance comparable to that of the state of the art in all three tasks. gSCRBMs require far fewer parameters in comparison with other recurrent networks with memory gates, in particular, LSTMs and gated recurrent units (GRUs)

Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development

The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art

The Recurrent Temporal Discriminative Restricted Boltzmann Machines

Classification of sequence data is the topic of interest for dynamic Bayesian models and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). While the former can explicitly model the temporal dependencies between class variables, the latter have a capability of learning representations. Several attempts have been made to improve performance by combining these two approaches or increasing the processing capability of the hidden units in RNNs. This often results in complex models with a large number of learning parameters. In this paper, a compact model is proposed which offers both representation learning and temporal inference of class variables by rolling Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) and class variables over time. We address the key issue of intractability in this variant of RBMs by optimising a conditional distribution, instead of a joint distribution. Experiments reported in the paper on melody modelling and optical character recognition show that the proposed model can outperform the state-of-the-art. Also, the experimental results on optical character recognition, part-of-speech tagging and text chunking demonstrate that our model is comparable to recurrent neural networks with complex memory gates while requiring far fewer parameters