The vicious cycle: fundraising and perceived visibility in US presidential primaries

Scholars of presidential primaries have long posited a dynamic positive feedback loop between fundraising and electoral success. Yet existing work on both directions of this feedback remains inconclusive and is often explicitly cross-sectional, ignoring the dynamic aspect of the hypothesis. Pairing high-frequency FEC data on contributions and expenditures with Iowa Electronic Markets data on perceived probability of victory, we examine the bidirectional feedback between contributions and viability. We find robust, significant positive feedback in both directions. This might suggest multiple equilibria: a candidate initially anointed as the front-runner able to sustain such status solely by the fundraising advantage conferred despite possessing no advantage in quality. However, simulations suggest the feedback loop cannot, by itself, sustain advantage. Given the observed durability of front-runners, it would thus seem there is either some other feedback at work and/or the process by which the initial front-runner is identified is informative of candidate quality

Inferring Networks of Substitutable and Complementary Products

In a modern recommender system, it is important to understand how products relate to each other. For example, while a user is looking for mobile phones, it might make sense to recommend other phones, but once they buy a phone, we might instead want to recommend batteries, cases, or chargers. These two types of recommendations are referred to as substitutes and complements: substitutes are products that can be purchased instead of each other, while complements are products that can be purchased in addition to each other. Here we develop a method to infer networks of substitutable and complementary products. We formulate this as a supervised link prediction task, where we learn the semantics of substitutes and complements from data associated with products. The primary source of data we use is the text of product reviews, though our method also makes use of features such as ratings, specifications, prices, and brands. Methodologically, we build topic models that are trained to automatically discover topics from text that are successful at predicting and explaining such relationships. Experimentally, we evaluate our system on the Amazon product catalog, a large dataset consisting of 9 million products, 237 million links, and 144 million reviews.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Price convergence in the enlarged internal market

The studies' main aim is to investigate the effects of the EU-10 enlargement on price convergence within the Internal Market. It distinguishes between the opposite forces provided by: (1) the catching up effect of the EU-10, expected to lead to a rise in price levels; and (2) increased competitiveness pressure on prices expected to lower price levels due to lower mark ups of prices over marginal costs. The study is based on comparative price levels for the EU-25, covering the period 1999-2004. Distinct variables were identified as proxies for the catching-up and competition forces. The following analysis proceeded in two steps. First, it is examined whether price convergence has occurred and, second, what are its main drivers. The results confirm the presence of price convergence. This process is particularly visible in the case of basic headings, most likely because they are related to more homogeneous products. Moreover, both catching up and competition have been important factors for explaining price convergence. In addition, both effects seem to be more pronounced for the EU-10 than for the EU-15.EU enlargement, Internal Market, price convergence, Balassa Samuelson effect, competition, Dreger, Kholodilin, Lommatzsch, Slacalek, Wozniak

Modeling Complex Networks For (Electronic) Commerce

NYU, Stern School of Business, IOMS Department, Center for Digital Economy Researc

Sectoral Co-Movement, Monetary-Policy Shock, and Input-Output Structure

The co-movement of output across the sector producing non- durables (that is, non-durable goods and services) and the sector producing durables is well-established in the monetary business-cycle literature. However, standard sticky-price models that incorporate sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness (that is, sticky non-durables prices and flexible durables prices) cannot generate this feature. We argue that an input-output structure provides a solution to this problem. Here we develop a two-sector model with an input-output structure, which is calibrated to the U.S. economy. In the model, each sector's output affects those of the others by acting as an intermediate input This connection between the sectors provides a channel through which sectoral co-movement is induced.Monetary Policy, Input-Output Matrix, Durables, Non-durables

Dynamics of structural transformation: An empirical characterization in the case of China, Malaysia, and Ghana

"The paper develops a metric of structural transformation that can account for the production of new varieties of goods embodying advancements in technological know-how and design. Our measure captures the dynamics of an economy's transformation and can be viewed as an extension of Hausmann and Klinger's static measure. We apply our measure to four-digit-level SITC trade data of China, Malaysia, and Ghana over the period 1962–2000. The results show that two important factors characterize the rapid transformation of the Chinese economy: the high proximity of its export basket to three main industrial clusters—capital goods, consumer durable goods, and intermediate inputs—and the increase in the values of the new goods belonging to those three clusters. Malaysia exhibits a similar but more modest pattern. In contrast, the structure of the Ghanaian economy appears unchanged over the entire 1962–2000 period. That economy is dominated by primary goods clusters, and the values of the goods in those clusters have remained relatively low. We also discuss qualitatively the role of policies and institutions in spurring transformation in the three countries." from authors' abstractStructural transformation, Discovery, technological change, Development strategies,

A value at risk analysis of cedit default swaps

We investigate the risk of holding credit default swaps(CDS) in the trading book and compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respective firm’s equity using a sample of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms over the period from March 2003 to October 2006. We find that the VaR for a stock is usually far larger than the VaR for a position in the same firm’s CDS. However, the ratio between CDS and equity VaR is markedly smaller for firms with high credit risk. The ratio also declines for longer holding periods. We also observe a positive correlation between CDS and equity VaR. Panel regressions suggest that our findings are consistent with qualitative predictions of the Merton (1974) model. JEL Classification: E43, G12, G13credit default swap, Structural Credit Risk Models, Value at Risk