The Effect of IMF Lending on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises

This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We nd that IMF programs signifcantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to endogeneity bias as they are supported by specications that explain sovereign defaults and program participation simultaneously. Furthermore, IMF programs turn out to be especially detrimental to scal solvency when the Fund distributes its resources to countries whose economic fundamentals are already weak. Our evidence is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that debtor moral hazard is most likely to occur in these circumstances. Other explanations that point to the eects of debt dilution and the possibility of IMF triggered debt runs, however, are also possible.IMF programs, Sovereign defaults, Bivariate probit, International Financial Architecture

A cure worse than the disease? currency crises and the output costs of IMF-supported stabilization programs

This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975–1997 period and covering 67 developing and emerging market economies (with 461 IMF stabilization programs and 160 currency crises), we find that currency crises—even after controlling for macroeconomic developments and political and regional factors—significantly reduce output growth for one to two years. Output growth is also lower (0.7 percentage point annually) during IMF stabilization programs, but it appears that growth generally slows prior to implementation of the program. Moreover, programs coinciding with recent balance of payments or currency crises do not appear to further damage short-run growth prospects. Countries participating in IMF programs significantly reduce domestic credit growth, but no effect is found on budget policy. Applying this model to the collapse of output in East Asia following the 1997 crisis, we find that the unexpected (forecast error) collapse of output in Malaysia—where an IMF program was not followed—was similar in magnitude to those countries adopting IMF programs (Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand).International Monetary Fund ; Money ; Financial crises

A Cure Worse Than The Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs.

This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 67 developing and emerging-market economies (with 461 IMF stabilization programs and 160 currency crises), we find that currency crises - even after controlling for macroeconomic developments, political and regional factors - significantly reduce output growth for 1-2 years. Output growth is also lower (0.7 percentage points annually) during IMF-stabilization programs, but it appears coinciding with recent balance of payments or currency crises do not appear to further damage short-run growth prospects. Countries participating in IMF programs significantly reduce domestic credit growth, but no effect is found on budget policy. Applying this model to the collapse of output in East Asia following the 1997 crisis, we find that the unexpected (forecast error) collapse of output in Malaysia - where an IMF-program was not followed - was similar in magnitude to those countries adopting IMF programs (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand).

A Cure Worse Than the Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs

This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 67 developing and emerging-market economies (with 461 IMF stabilization programs and 160 currency crises), we find that currency crises even after controlling for macroeconomic developments, political and regional factors significantly reduce output growth for 1-2 years. Output growth is also lower (0.7 percentage points annually) during IMF-stabilization programs, but it appears that growth generally slows prior to implementation of the program. Moreover, programs coinciding with recent balance of payments or currency crises do not appear to further damage short-run growth prospects. Countries participating in IMF programs significantly reduce domestic credit growth, but no effect is found on budget policy. Applying this model to the collapse of output in East Asia following the 1997 crisis, we find that the unexpected (forecast error) collapse of output in Malaysia where an IMF-program was not followed-- was similar in magnitude to those countries adopting IMF programs (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand).

The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects

macroeconomics, East Asian Financial Crisis, East Asia, Financial crisis, Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects

Banking and currency crisis and systemic risk: lessons from recent events

Banking and currency crises have done severe economic damage in many countries in recent years. This article examines the causes and characteristics of these crises and the public policies intended to prevent them or mitigate their adverse consequences.Financial crises ; Bank failures ; Money ; Public policy

How to Achieve Inclusive Growth

Rising inequality and widespread poverty, social unrest and polarization, gender and ethnic disparities, declining social mobility, economic fragility, unbalanced growth due to technology and globalization, and existential danger from climate change are urgent global concerns of our day. These issues are intertwined. They therefore require a holistic framework to examine their interplay and bring the various strands together. This book brings together leading academic economists and experts from several international institutions to explain the sources and scale of these challenges. The book summarizes a wide array of empirical evidence and country experiences, lays out practical policy solutions, and devises a comprehensive and unified plan of action for combatting these economic and social disparities. This authoritative book is accessible to policy makers, students, and the general public interested in how to craft a brighter future by building a sustainable, green, and inclusive society in the years ahead

How to Achieve Inclusive Growth

Rising inequality and widespread poverty, social unrest and polarization, gender and ethnic disparities, declining social mobility, economic fragility, unbalanced growth due to technology and globalization, and existential danger from climate change are urgent global concerns of our day. These issues are intertwined. They therefore require a holistic framework to examine their interplay and bring the various strands together. This book brings together leading academic economists and experts from several international institutions to explain the sources and scale of these challenges. The book summarizes a wide array of empirical evidence and country experiences, lays out practical policy solutions, and devises a comprehensive and unified plan of action for combatting these economic and social disparities. This authoritative book is accessible to policy makers, students, and the general public interested in how to craft a brighter future by building a sustainable, green, and inclusive society in the years ahead

LEADING INDICATORS OF CURRENCY AND BANKING CRISES: CROATIA AND THE WORLD

The balance of payments crises that have shaken the world in the last two decades have awakened interest in academic and political circles in creating systems for discovering the causes of the disturbances that end in currency crisis. If disturbances on foreign exchange markets could be identified early enough, there might be enough time for policymakers to take measures to avoid or at least diminish the severity of such crises. With this in mind, the present work attempts to develop such a system of early warning for currency crises in Croatia