Measures of Variability for Bayesian Network Graphical Structures

The structure of a Bayesian network includes a great deal of information about the probability distribution of the data, which is uniquely identified given some general distributional assumptions. Therefore it's important to study its variability, which can be used to compare the performance of different learning algorithms and to measure the strength of any arbitrary subset of arcs. In this paper we will introduce some descriptive statistics and the corresponding parametric and Monte Carlo tests on the undirected graph underlying the structure of a Bayesian network, modeled as a multivariate Bernoulli random variable. A simple numeric example and the comparison of the performance of some structure learning algorithm on small samples will then illustrate their use.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:0909.168

Knowing what you know in brain segmentation using Bayesian deep neural networks

In this paper, we describe a Bayesian deep neural network (DNN) for predicting FreeSurfer segmentations of structural MRI volumes, in minutes rather than hours. The network was trained and evaluated on a large dataset (n = 11,480), obtained by combining data from more than a hundred different sites, and also evaluated on another completely held-out dataset (n = 418). The network was trained using a novel spike-and-slab dropout-based variational inference approach. We show that, on these datasets, the proposed Bayesian DNN outperforms previously proposed methods, in terms of the similarity between the segmentation predictions and the FreeSurfer labels, and the usefulness of the estimate uncertainty of these predictions. In particular, we demonstrated that the prediction uncertainty of this network at each voxel is a good indicator of whether the network has made an error and that the uncertainty across the whole brain can predict the manual quality control ratings of a scan. The proposed Bayesian DNN method should be applicable to any new network architecture for addressing the segmentation problem.Comment: Submitted to Frontiers in Neuroinformatic

Bayesian Verification under Model Uncertainty

Machine learning enables systems to build and update domain models based on runtime observations. In this paper, we study statistical model checking and runtime verification for systems with this ability. Two challenges arise: (1) Models built from limited runtime data yield uncertainty to be dealt with. (2) There is no definition of satisfaction w.r.t. uncertain hypotheses. We propose such a definition of subjective satisfaction based on recently introduced satisfaction functions. We also propose the BV algorithm as a Bayesian solution to runtime verification of subjective satisfaction under model uncertainty. BV provides user-definable stochastic bounds for type I and II errors. We discuss empirical results from an example application to illustrate our ideas.Comment: Accepted at SEsCPS @ ICSE 201

Empirical Bayes and Full Bayes for Signal Estimation

We consider signals that follow a parametric distribution where the parameter values are unknown. To estimate such signals from noisy measurements in scalar channels, we study the empirical performance of an empirical Bayes (EB) approach and a full Bayes (FB) approach. We then apply EB and FB to solve compressed sensing (CS) signal estimation problems by successively denoising a scalar Gaussian channel within an approximate message passing (AMP) framework. Our numerical results show that FB achieves better performance than EB in scalar channel denoising problems when the signal dimension is small. In the CS setting, the signal dimension must be large enough for AMP to work well; for large signal dimensions, AMP has similar performance with FB and EB.Comment: This work was presented at the Information Theory and Application workshop (ITA), San Diego, CA, Feb. 201