Nonparametric Uncertainty Quantification for Stochastic Gradient Flows

This paper presents a nonparametric statistical modeling method for quantifying uncertainty in stochastic gradient systems with isotropic diffusion. The central idea is to apply the diffusion maps algorithm to a training data set to produce a stochastic matrix whose generator is a discrete approximation to the backward Kolmogorov operator of the underlying dynamics. The eigenvectors of this stochastic matrix, which we will refer to as the diffusion coordinates, are discrete approximations to the eigenfunctions of the Kolmogorov operator and form an orthonormal basis for functions defined on the data set. Using this basis, we consider the projection of three uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems (prediction, filtering, and response) into the diffusion coordinates. In these coordinates, the nonlinear prediction and response problems reduce to solving systems of infinite-dimensional linear ordinary differential equations. Similarly, the continuous-time nonlinear filtering problem reduces to solving a system of infinite-dimensional linear stochastic differential equations. Solving the UQ problems then reduces to solving the corresponding truncated linear systems in finitely many diffusion coordinates. By solving these systems we give a model-free algorithm for UQ on gradient flow systems with isotropic diffusion. We numerically verify these algorithms on a 1-dimensional linear gradient flow system where the analytic solutions of the UQ problems are known. We also apply the algorithm to a chaotically forced nonlinear gradient flow system which is known to be well approximated as a stochastically forced gradient flow.Comment: Find the associated videos at: http://personal.psu.edu/thb11

Robust State Space Filtering under Incremental Model Perturbations Subject to a Relative Entropy Tolerance

This paper considers robust filtering for a nominal Gaussian state-space model, when a relative entropy tolerance is applied to each time increment of a dynamical model. The problem is formulated as a dynamic minimax game where the maximizer adopts a myopic strategy. This game is shown to admit a saddle point whose structure is characterized by applying and extending results presented earlier in [1] for static least-squares estimation. The resulting minimax filter takes the form of a risk-sensitive filter with a time varying risk sensitivity parameter, which depends on the tolerance bound applied to the model dynamics and observations at the corresponding time index. The least-favorable model is constructed and used to evaluate the performance of alternative filters. Simulations comparing the proposed risk-sensitive filter to a standard Kalman filter show a significant performance advantage when applied to the least-favorable model, and only a small performance loss for the nominal model

Local Measurement and Reconstruction for Noisy Graph Signals

The emerging field of signal processing on graph plays a more and more important role in processing signals and information related to networks. Existing works have shown that under certain conditions a smooth graph signal can be uniquely reconstructed from its decimation, i.e., data associated with a subset of vertices. However, in some potential applications (e.g., sensor networks with clustering structure), the obtained data may be a combination of signals associated with several vertices, rather than the decimation. In this paper, we propose a new concept of local measurement, which is a generalization of decimation. Using the local measurements, a local-set-based method named iterative local measurement reconstruction (ILMR) is proposed to reconstruct bandlimited graph signals. It is proved that ILMR can reconstruct the original signal perfectly under certain conditions. The performance of ILMR against noise is theoretically analyzed. The optimal choice of local weights and a greedy algorithm of local set partition are given in the sense of minimizing the expected reconstruction error. Compared with decimation, the proposed local measurement sampling and reconstruction scheme is more robust in noise existing scenarios.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, journal manuscrip

Automatic Kalman-filter-based wavelet shrinkage denoising of 1D stellar spectra

We propose a non-parametric method to denoise 1D stellar spectra based on wavelet shrinkage followed by adaptive Kalman thresholding. Wavelet shrinkage denoising involves applying the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) to the input signal, 'shrinking' certain frequency components in the transform domain, and then applying inverse DWT to the reduced components. The performance of this procedure is influenced by the choice of base wavelet, the number of decomposition levels, and the thresholding function. Typically, these parameters are chosen by 'trial and error', which can be strongly dependent on the properties of the data being denoised. We here introduce an adaptive Kalman-filter-based thresholding method that eliminates the need for choosing the number of decomposition levels. We use the 'Haar' wavelet basis, which we found to provide excellent filtering for 1D stellar spectra, at a low computational cost. We introduce various levels of Poisson noise into synthetic PHOENIX spectra, and test the performance of several common denoising methods against our own. It proves superior in terms of noise suppression and peak shape preservation. We expect it may also be of use in automatically and accurately filtering low signal-to-noise galaxy and quasar spectra obtained from surveys such as SDSS, Gaia, LSST, PESSTO, VANDELS, LEGA-C, and DESI