3,672 research outputs found
Optimization of Trading Physics Models of Markets
We describe an end-to-end real-time S&P futures trading system. Inner-shell
stochastic nonlinear dynamic models are developed, and Canonical Momenta
Indicators (CMI) are derived from a fitted Lagrangian used by outer-shell
trading models dependent on these indicators. Recursive and adaptive
optimization using Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) is used for fitting
parameters shared across these shells of dynamic and trading models
A view of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms through the lens of Expectation-Maximization
We show that a large class of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms,
including, but not limited to, Covariance Matrix Adaption, can be written as a
Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and as exact EM in the limit of
infinite samples. Because EM sits on a rigorous statistical foundation and has
been thoroughly analyzed, this connection provides a new coherent framework
with which to reason about EDAs
Sequential Design for Optimal Stopping Problems
We propose a new approach to solve optimal stopping problems via simulation.
Working within the backward dynamic programming/Snell envelope framework, we
augment the methodology of Longstaff-Schwartz that focuses on approximating the
stopping strategy. Namely, we introduce adaptive generation of the stochastic
grids anchoring the simulated sample paths of the underlying state process.
This allows for active learning of the classifiers partitioning the state space
into the continuation and stopping regions. To this end, we examine sequential
design schemes that adaptively place new design points close to the stopping
boundaries. We then discuss dynamic regression algorithms that can implement
such recursive estimation and local refinement of the classifiers. The new
algorithm is illustrated with a variety of numerical experiments, showing that
an order of magnitude savings in terms of design size can be achieved. We also
compare with existing benchmarks in the context of pricing multi-dimensional
Bermudan options.Comment: 24 page
Patterns of Scalable Bayesian Inference
Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand
for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an
excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge.
In response to this challenge, there has been considerable recent work based on
varying assumptions about model structure, underlying computational resources,
and the importance of asymptotic correctness. As a result, there is a zoo of
ideas with few clear overarching principles.
In this paper, we seek to identify unifying principles, patterns, and
intuitions for scaling Bayesian inference. We review existing work on utilizing
modern computing resources with both MCMC and variational approximation
techniques. From this taxonomy of ideas, we characterize the general principles
that have proven successful for designing scalable inference procedures and
comment on the path forward
A survey on metaheuristics for stochastic combinatorial optimization
Metaheuristics are general algorithmic frameworks, often nature-inspired, designed to solve complex optimization problems, and they are a growing research area since a few decades. In recent years, metaheuristics are emerging as successful alternatives to more classical approaches also for solving optimization problems that include in their mathematical formulation uncertain, stochastic, and dynamic information. In this paper metaheuristics such as Ant Colony Optimization, Evolutionary Computation, Simulated Annealing, Tabu Search and others are introduced, and their applications to the class of Stochastic Combinatorial Optimization Problems (SCOPs) is thoroughly reviewed. Issues common to all metaheuristics, open problems, and possible directions of research are proposed and discussed. In this survey, the reader familiar to metaheuristics finds also pointers to classical algorithmic approaches to optimization under uncertainty, and useful informations to start working on this problem domain, while the reader new to metaheuristics should find a good tutorial in those metaheuristics that are currently being applied to optimization under uncertainty, and motivations for interest in this fiel
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