A Recurrent Neural Network Survival Model: Predicting Web User Return Time

The size of a website's active user base directly affects its value. Thus, it is important to monitor and influence a user's likelihood to return to a site. Essential to this is predicting when a user will return. Current state of the art approaches to solve this problem come in two flavors: (1) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based solutions and (2) survival analysis methods. We observe that both techniques are severely limited when applied to this problem. Survival models can only incorporate aggregate representations of users instead of automatically learning a representation directly from a raw time series of user actions. RNNs can automatically learn features, but can not be directly trained with examples of non-returning users who have no target value for their return time. We develop a novel RNN survival model that removes the limitations of the state of the art methods. We demonstrate that this model can successfully be applied to return time prediction on a large e-commerce dataset with a superior ability to discriminate between returning and non-returning users than either method applied in isolation.Comment: Accepted into ECML PKDD 2018; 8 figures and 1 tabl

Foundations and modelling of dynamic networks using Dynamic Graph Neural Networks: A survey

Dynamic networks are used in a wide range of fields, including social network analysis, recommender systems, and epidemiology. Representing complex networks as structures changing over time allow network models to leverage not only structural but also temporal patterns. However, as dynamic network literature stems from diverse fields and makes use of inconsistent terminology, it is challenging to navigate. Meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have gained a lot of attention in recent years for their ability to perform well on a range of network science tasks, such as link prediction and node classification. Despite the popularity of graph neural networks and the proven benefits of dynamic network models, there has been little focus on graph neural networks for dynamic networks. To address the challenges resulting from the fact that this research crosses diverse fields as well as to survey dynamic graph neural networks, this work is split into two main parts. First, to address the ambiguity of the dynamic network terminology we establish a foundation of dynamic networks with consistent, detailed terminology and notation. Second, we present a comprehensive survey of dynamic graph neural network models using the proposed terminologyComment: 28 pages, 9 figures, 8 table

Echo state network for occupancy prediction and pattern mining in intelligent environment

Pattern analysis and prediction of sensory data is becoming an increasing scientific challenge and a massive economical interest supports the need for better pattern mining techniques. The aim of this paper is to investigate efficient mining of useful information from a sensor network representing an ambient intelligence environment. The goal is to extract and predict behavioral patterns of a person in his/her daily activities by analyzing the time series data representing the behaviour of the occupant, generated using occupancy sensors. There are various techniques available for analysis and prediction of a continuous time series signal. However, the occupancy signal is represented by a binary time series where only discrete values of a signal are available. To build the prediction model, recurrent neural networks are investigated. They are proven to be useful tools to solve the difficulties of the temporal relationships of inputs between observations at different time steps, by maintaining internal states that have memory. In this paper, a special form of recurrent neural network, the so-called Echo State Network (ESN) is used in which discrete values of time series can be well processed. Then, a model developed based on ESN is compared with the most popular recurrent neural net-works; namely Back Propagation Through Time (BPTT) and Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL). The results showed that ESN provides better prediction results compared with BPTT and RTRL. Using ESN, large datasets are learnt in only few minutes or even seconds. It can be concluded that ESN are efficient and valuable tools in binary time series prediction. The results presented in this paper are based on simulated data generated from a simulator representing a person in a 1 bedroom flat