Prediction of Pilot's Absenteeism in an Airline Company

RÉSUMÉ: Les compagnies aériennes sont soumises aux nombreuses sources de perturbations pendant les opérations. Il est essentiel pour ce type d'industrie de prédire les origines des perturbations dans les différents niveaux de gestion pour réduire les coûts de rattrapage du calendrier. Une des sources les plus importantes et coûteuses de perturbation dans les compagnies aériennes est l'absentéisme des pilotes au moment de l'opération des vols. ‎Dans ce mémoire, nous nous concentrons sur l'absentéisme des pilotes pour cause de maladie. Nous proposons une méthode d'apprentissage supervisé qui est capable de prédire la somme mensuelle des heures de maladie chez les pilotes après la publication du calendrier. La méthode proposée utilise les caractéristiques du calendrier mensuel comme les variables explicatives et elle fait la prédiction en utilisant d'un algorithme itératif. La méthode a été vérifiée avec des données réelles et une amélioration considérable a été observée dans les résultats. Pour rendre la méthode en situation réelle, nous avons créé une interface facile à utiliser comme un système d'aide à la décision. Cette interface automatise l'ensemble du processus de prédiction. ABSTRACT: Airline companies are subject to a considerable number of disruptions during operations. It is vital for this type of industry to predict the source of disruptions in different levels of management to reduce the costs of schedule recovery. One of the most important and costly source of disruption in the airlines is absenteeism of the pilots at the time of the flights operation. In this master thesis, we focus on the absenteeism of the pilots because of the sickness. We propose a supervised learning method which is able to predict total monthly sick hours after publishing the schedule. The proposed method uses characteristics of the monthly schedule as the explanatory variables and the prediction is made by using an iterative algorithm. The model was tested with real data and a substantial improvement was observed in the results. For applying this method in business environment, we created a user-friendly web application as the decision support system. This application automates the whole process of prediction

Land surface temperature and evapotranspiration estimation in the Amazon evergreen forests using remote sensing data

Amazonian tropical forests play a significant role in global water, carbon and energy cycles. Considering the relevance of this biome and the climate change projections which predict a hotter and drier climate for the region, the monitoring of the vegetation status of these forests becomes of significant importance. In this context, vegetation temperature and evapotranspiration (ET) can be considered as key variables. Vegetation temperature is directly linked with plant physiology. In addition, some studies have shown the existing relationship between this variable and the CO2 absorption capacity and biomass loss of these forests. Evapotranspiration resulting from the combined processes of transpiration and evaporation links the terrestrial water, carbon and surface energy exchanges of these forests. How this variable will response to the changing climate is critical to understand the stability of these forests. Satellite remote sensing is presented as a feasible means in order to provide accurate spatially-distributed estimates of these variables. Nevertheless, the use of satellite passive imagery for analysing this region still has some limitations being of special importance the proper cloud masking of the satellite data which becomes a difficult task due to the continuous cloud cover of the region. Under the light of the aforementioned issues, the present doctoral thesis is aimed at estimating the land surface temperature and evapotranspiration of the Amazonian tropical forests using remote sensing data. In addition, as cloud screening of satellite imagery is a critical step in the processing chain of the previous magnitudes and becomes of special importance for the study region this topic has also been included in this thesis. We have mainly focused on the use of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) which is amongst major tools for studying this region. Regarding the cloud detection topic, the potential of supervised learning algorithms for cloud masking was studied in order to overcome the cloud contamination issue of the current satellite products. Models considered were: Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), Random Forests (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). These algorithms are able to provide a continuous measure of cloud masking uncertainty (i.e. a probability estimate of each pixel belonging to clear and cloudy class) and therefore can be used under the light of a probabilistic approach. Reference dataset (a priori knowledge) requirement was satisfied by considering the collocation of Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations with MODIS sensor. Model performance was tested using three independent datasets: 1) collocated CPR/CALIOP and MODIS data, 2) MODIS manually classified images and 3) in-situ ground data. For the case of satellite image and in-situ testing, results were additionally compared to current operative MYD35 (version 6.1) and Multi-Angle Implementation of the Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) cloud masking algorithms. These results showed that machine learning algorithms were able to improve MODIS operative cloud masking performance over the region. MYD35 and MAIAC tended to underestimate and overestimate the cloud cover, respectively. Amongst the models considered, LDA stood out as the best candidate because of its maximum accuracy (difference in Kappa coefficient of 0.293/0.155 (MYD35 /MAIAC respectively)) and minimum computational associated. Regarding the estimation of land surface temperature (LST), the aim of this study was to generate specific LST products for the Amazonian tropical forests. This goal was accomplished by using a tuned split-window (SW) equation. Validation of the LST products was obtained by direct comparison between LST estimates as derived from the algorithms and two types of different LST observations: in-situ LST (T-based validation) and LST derived from the R-based method. In addition, LST algorithms were validated using independent simulated data. In-situ LST was retrieved from two infrared radiometers (SI-100 and IR-120) and a CNR4 net radiometer, situated at Tambopata test site (12.832 S, 62.282 W) in the Peruvian Amazon. Apart from this, current satellite LST products were also validated and compared to the tuned split-window. Although we have mainly focus on MODIS LST products which derive from three different LST algorithms: split-window, day and night (DN) and Temperature Emissivity Separation (TES), we have also considered the inclusion of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor. In addition, a first assessment of the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) is presented. Validation was performed separately for daytime and nighttime conditions. For MODIS sensor, current LST products showed Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) in LST estimations between 2 K and 3K for daytime and 1 K and 2 K for nighttime. In the best case (with a restrictive cloud screening) RMSE errors decrease to values below 2K and around 1 K, respectively. The proposed LST showed RMSE values of 1K to approximately 2 K and 0.7-1.5 K (below 1.5 K and below 1 K in the best case) for daytime and nighttime conditions, thus improving current LST MODIS products. This is also in agreement with the R-based validation results, which show a RMSE reduction of 0.7 K to 1.7 K in comparison to MODIS LST products. For the case of VIIRS sensor daytime conditions, VIIRS-TES algorithm provides the best performance with a difference of 0.2 K to around 0.3 K in RMSE regarding the split window algorithm (in the best case it reduces to 0.2 K). All VIIRS LST products considered have RMSE values between 2 K and 3K. At nighttime, however VIIRS-TES is not able to outperform the SW algorithm. A difference of 0.7 K to 0.8 K in RMSE is obtained. Contrary to MODIS and the SW LST products, VIIRS-TES tends to overestimate in-situ LST values. Regarding SLSTR sensor, the L2 product provides a better agreement with in-situ observations than the proposed algorithm (daytime difference in RMSE around 0.6 K and up 0.07 K at nighttime). In the estimation of the ET, we focused on the evaluation of four commonly used remote-sensing based ET models. These were: i) Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), ii) Penman-Monteith MODIS operative parametrization (PM-Mu), iii) Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), and iv) Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSASAF). These models were forced using remote-sensing data from MODIS and two ancillary meteorological data sources: i) in-situ data extracted from Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) stations (scenario I), and ii) three reanalysis datasets (scenario II), including Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application (MERRA-2), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis-Interim (ERA-Interim), and Global Land Assimilation System (GLDAS-2.1). Performance of algorithms under the two scenarios was validated using in-situ eddy-covariance measurements. For scenario I, PT-JPL provided the best agreement with in-situ ET observations (RMSE = 0.55 mm/day, R = 0.88). Neglecting water canopy evaporation resulted in an underestimation of ET measurements for LSASAF. SEBS performance was similar to that of PT-JPL, nevertheless SEBS estimates were limited by the continuous cloud cover of the region. A physically-based ET gap-filling method was used in order to alleviate this issue. PM-Mu also with a similar performance to PT-JPL tended to overestimate in-situ ET observations. For scenario II, quality assessment of reanalysis input data demonstrated that MERRA-2, ERA-Interim and GLDAS-2.1 contain biases that impact model performance. In particular, biases in radiation inputs were found the main responsible of the observed biases in ET estimates. For the region, MERRA-2 tends to overestimate daily net radiation and incoming solar radiation. ERA-Interim tends to underestimate both variables, and GLDAS-2.1 tends to overestimate daily radiation while underestimating incoming solar radiation. Discrepancies amongst these inputs resulted in large absolute deviations in spatial patterns (deviations greater than 500 mm/year) and temporal patterns

Algorithmes évolutionnaires appliqués à la reconnaissance des formes et à la conception optique

Les algorithmes évolutionnaires (AE) constituent une famille d’algorithmes inspirés de l’évolution naturelle. Ces algorithmes sont particulièrement utiles pour la résolution de problèmes où les algorithmes classiques d’optimisation, d’apprentissage ou de conception automatique sont incapables de produire des résultats satisfaisants. On propose dans cette thèse une approche méthodologique pour le développement de systèmes intelligents basés sur les AE. Cette approche méthodologique repose sur cinq principes : 1) utiliser des algorithmes et des représentations adaptés au problème ; 2) développer des hybrides entre des AE et des heuristiques du domaine d’application ; 3) tirer profit de l’optimisation évolutionnaire à plusieurs objectifs ; 4) faire de la co-évolution pour résoudre simultanément plusieurs sous-problèmes d’une application ou favoriser la robustesse ; et 5) utiliser un outil logiciel générique pour le développement rapide d’AE non conventionnels. Cette approche méthodologique est illustrée par quatre applications des AE à des problèmes difficiles. De plus, le cinquième principe est appuyé par l’étude sur la généricité dans les outils logiciels d’AE. Le développement d’applications complexes avec les AE exige l’utilisation d’un outil logiciel générique. Six critères sont proposés ici pour évaluer la généricité des outils d’AE. De nombreux outils logiciels d’AE sont disponibles dans la communauté, mais peu d’entre eux peuvent être véritablement qualifiés de génériques. En effet, une évaluation de quelques outils relativement populaires nous indique que seulement trois satisfont pleinement à tous ces critères, dont la framework d’AE Open BEAGLE, développée durant le doctorat. Open BEAGLE est organisé en trois couches logicielles principales, avec à la base les fondations orientées objet, sur lesquelles s’ajoute une framework gén érique comprenant les mécanismes généraux de l’outil, ainsi que plusieurs frameworks spécialisées qui implantent différentes saveurs d’AE. L’outil comporte également deux extensions servant à distribuer des calculs sur plusieurs ordinateurs et à visualiser des résultats. Ensuite, trois applications illustrent différentes approches d’utilisation des AE dans un contexte de reconnaissance des formes. Premièrement, on optimise des classifieurs basés sur la règle du plus proche voisin avec la sélection de prototypes par un algorithme génétique, simultanément à la construction de mesures de voisinage par programmation génétique (PG). À cette co-évolution coopérative à deux espèces, on ajoute la co-évolution compétitive d’une troisième espèce pour la sélection de données de test, afin d’améliorer la capacité de généralisation des solutions. La deuxième application consiste en l’ingénierie de représentations par PG pour la reconnaissance de caractères manuscrits. Cette ingénierie évolutionnaire s’effectue par un positionnement automatique de régions dans la fenêtre d’attention jumelé à la sélection d’ensembles flous pour l’extraction de caractéristiques. Cette application permet d’automatiser la recherche de représentations de caractères, opération généralement effectuée par des experts humains suite à un processus d’essais et erreurs. Pour la troisième application en reconnaissance des formes, on propose un système extensible pour la combinaison hiérarchique de classifieurs dans un arbre de décision flou. Dans ce système, la topologie des arbres est évoluée par PG alors que les paramètres numériques des unités de classement sont détermin és par des techniques d’apprentissage spécialisées. Le système est testé avec trois types simples d’unités de classement. Pour toutes ces applications en reconnaissance des formes, on utilise une mesure d’adéquation à deux objectifs afin de minimiser les erreurs de classement et la complexité des solutions. Une dernière application démontre l’efficacité des AE pour la conception de syst` emes de lentilles. On utilise des stratégies d’évolution auto-adaptatives hybridées avec une technique d’optimisation locale spécialisée pour la résolution de deux problèmes complexes de conception optique. Dans les deux cas, on démontre que les AE hybrides sont capables de générer des résultats comparables ou supérieurs à ceux produits par des experts humains. Ces résultats sont prometteurs dans la perspective d’une automatisation plus poussée de la conception optique. On présente également une expérience supplémentaire avec une mesure à deux objectifs servant à maximiser la qualité de l’image et à minimiser le coût du système de lentilles.Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) encompass a family of robust search algorithms loosely inspired by natural evolution. These algorithms are particularly useful to solve problems for which classical algorithms of optimization, learning, or automatic design cannot produce good results. In this thesis, we propose a common methodological approach for the development of EA-based intelligent systems. This methodological approach is based on five principles : 1) to use algorithms and representations that are problem specific ; 2) to develop hybrids between EA and heuristics from the application field ; 3) to take advantage of multi-objective evolutionary optimization ; 4) to do co-evolution for the simultaneous resolution of several sub-problems of a common application and for promoting robustness ; and 5) to use generic software tools for rapid development of unconventional EA. This methodological approach is illustrated on four applications of EA to hard problems. Moreover, the fifth principle is explained in the study on genericity of EA software tools. The application of EA to complex problems requires the use of generic software tool, for which we propose six genericity criteria. Many EA software tools are available in the community, but only a few are really generic. Indeed, an evaluation of some popular tools tells us that only three respect all these criteria, of which the framework Open BEAGLE, developed during the Ph.D. Open BEAGLE is organized into three main software layers. The basic layer is made of the object oriented foundations, over which there is the generic framework layer, consisting of the general mechanisms of the tool, and then the final layer, containing several specialized frameworks implementing different EA flavors. The tool also includes two extensions, respectively to distribute the computations over many computers and to visualize results. Three applications illustrate different approaches for using EA in the context of pattern recognition. First, nearest neighbor classifiers are optimized, with the prototype selection using a genetic algorithm simultaneously to the Genetic Programming (GP) of neighborhood metrics. We add to this cooperative two species co-evolution a third coevolving competitive species for selecting test data in order to improve the generalization capability of solutions. A second application consists in designing representations with GP for handwritten character recognition. This evolutionary engineering is conducted with an automatic positioning of regions in a window of attention, combined with the selection of fuzzy sets for feature extraction. This application is used to automate character representation search, which is usually conducted by human experts with a trial and error process. For the third application in pattern recognition, we propose an extensible system for the hierarchical combination of classifiers into a fuzzy decision tree. In this system, the tree topology is evolved with GP while the numerical parameters of classification units are determined by specialized learning techniques. The system is tested with three simple types of classification units. All of these applications in pattern recognition have been implemented using a two-objective fitness measure in order to minimize classification errors and solutions complexity. The last application demonstrate the efficiency of EA for lens system design. Selfadaptative evolution strategies, hybridized with a specialized local optimisation technique, are used to solve two complex optical design problems. In both cases, the experiments demonstrate that hybridized EA are able to produce results that are comparable or better than those obtained by human experts. These results are encouraging from the standpoint of a fully automated optical design process. An additional experiment is also conducted with a two-objectives fitness measure that tries to maximize image quality while minimizing lens system cost