Comparison of data-driven uncertainty quantification methods for a carbon dioxide storage benchmark scenario

A variety of methods is available to quantify uncertainties arising with\-in the modeling of flow and transport in carbon dioxide storage, but there is a lack of thorough comparisons. Usually, raw data from such storage sites can hardly be described by theoretical statistical distributions since only very limited data is available. Hence, exact information on distribution shapes for all uncertain parameters is very rare in realistic applications. We discuss and compare four different methods tested for data-driven uncertainty quantification based on a benchmark scenario of carbon dioxide storage. In the benchmark, for which we provide data and code, carbon dioxide is injected into a saline aquifer modeled by the nonlinear capillarity-free fractional flow formulation for two incompressible fluid phases, namely carbon dioxide and brine. To cover different aspects of uncertainty quantification, we incorporate various sources of uncertainty such as uncertainty of boundary conditions, of conceptual model definitions and of material properties. We consider recent versions of the following non-intrusive and intrusive uncertainty quantification methods: arbitary polynomial chaos, spatially adaptive sparse grids, kernel-based greedy interpolation and hybrid stochastic Galerkin. The performance of each approach is demonstrated assessing expectation value and standard deviation of the carbon dioxide saturation against a reference statistic based on Monte Carlo sampling. We compare the convergence of all methods reporting on accuracy with respect to the number of model runs and resolution. Finally we offer suggestions about the methods' advantages and disadvantages that can guide the modeler for uncertainty quantification in carbon dioxide storage and beyond

Uncertainty Quantification of geochemical and mechanical compaction in layered sedimentary basins

In this work we propose an Uncertainty Quantification methodology for sedimentary basins evolution under mechanical and geochemical compaction processes, which we model as a coupled, time-dependent, non-linear, monodimensional (depth-only) system of PDEs with uncertain parameters. While in previous works (Formaggia et al. 2013, Porta et al., 2014) we assumed a simplified depositional history with only one material, in this work we consider multi-layered basins, in which each layer is characterized by a different material, and hence by different properties. This setting requires several improvements with respect to our earlier works, both concerning the deterministic solver and the stochastic discretization. On the deterministic side, we replace the previous fixed-point iterative solver with a more efficient Newton solver at each step of the time-discretization. On the stochastic side, the multi-layered structure gives rise to discontinuities in the dependence of the state variables on the uncertain parameters, that need an appropriate treatment for surrogate modeling techniques, such as sparse grids, to be effective. We propose an innovative methodology to this end which relies on a change of coordinate system to align the discontinuities of the target function within the random parameter space. The reference coordinate system is built upon exploiting physical features of the problem at hand. We employ the locations of material interfaces, which display a smooth dependence on the random parameters and are therefore amenable to sparse grid polynomial approximations. We showcase the capabilities of our numerical methodologies through two synthetic test cases. In particular, we show that our methodology reproduces with high accuracy multi-modal probability density functions displayed by target state variables (e.g., porosity).Comment: 25 pages, 30 figure

Efficient cosmological parameter sampling using sparse grids

We present a novel method to significantly speed up cosmological parameter sampling. The method relies on constructing an interpolation of the CMB-log-likelihood based on sparse grids, which is used as a shortcut for the likelihood-evaluation. We obtain excellent results over a large region in parameter space, comprising about 25 log-likelihoods around the peak, and we reproduce the one-dimensional projections of the likelihood almost perfectly. In speed and accuracy, our technique is competitive to existing approaches to accelerate parameter estimation based on polynomial interpolation or neural networks, while having some advantages over them. In our method, there is no danger of creating unphysical wiggles as it can be the case for polynomial fits of a high degree. Furthermore, we do not require a long training time as for neural networks, but the construction of the interpolation is determined by the time it takes to evaluate the likelihood at the sampling points, which can be parallelised to an arbitrary degree. Our approach is completely general, and it can adaptively exploit the properties of the underlying function. We can thus apply it to any problem where an accurate interpolation of a function is needed.Comment: Submitted to MNRAS, 13 pages, 13 figure

Gradient-Based Estimation of Uncertain Parameters for Elliptic Partial Differential Equations

This paper addresses the estimation of uncertain distributed diffusion coefficients in elliptic systems based on noisy measurements of the model output. We formulate the parameter identification problem as an infinite dimensional constrained optimization problem for which we establish existence of minimizers as well as first order necessary conditions. A spectral approximation of the uncertain observations allows us to estimate the infinite dimensional problem by a smooth, albeit high dimensional, deterministic optimization problem, the so-called finite noise problem in the space of functions with bounded mixed derivatives. We prove convergence of finite noise minimizers to the appropriate infinite dimensional ones, and devise a stochastic augmented Lagrangian method for locating these numerically. Lastly, we illustrate our method with three numerical examples

Stochastic collocation on unstructured multivariate meshes

Collocation has become a standard tool for approximation of parameterized systems in the uncertainty quantification (UQ) community. Techniques for least-squares regularization, compressive sampling recovery, and interpolatory reconstruction are becoming standard tools used in a variety of applications. Selection of a collocation mesh is frequently a challenge, but methods that construct geometrically "unstructured" collocation meshes have shown great potential due to attractive theoretical properties and direct, simple generation and implementation. We investigate properties of these meshes, presenting stability and accuracy results that can be used as guides for generating stochastic collocation grids in multiple dimensions.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figure