Practical Model-Based Diagnosis with Qualitative Possibilistic Uncertainty

An approach to fault isolation that exploits vastly incomplete models is presented. It relies on separate descriptions of each component behavior, together with the links between them, which enables focusing of the reasoning to the relevant part of the system. As normal observations do not need explanation, the behavior of the components is limited to anomaly propagation. Diagnostic solutions are disorders (fault modes or abnormal signatures) that are consistent with the observations, as well as abductive explanations. An ordinal representation of uncertainty based on possibility theory provides a simple exception-tolerant description of the component behaviors. We can for instance distinguish between effects that are more or less certainly present (or absent) and effects that are more or less certainly present (or absent) when a given anomaly is present. A realistic example illustrates the benefits of this approach.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1995

Discovering the Impact of Knowledge in Recommender Systems: A Comparative Study

Recommender systems engage user profiles and appropriate filtering techniques to assist users in finding more relevant information over the large volume of information. User profiles play an important role in the success of recommendation process since they model and represent the actual user needs. However, a comprehensive literature review of recommender systems has demonstrated no concrete study on the role and impact of knowledge in user profiling and filtering approache. In this paper, we review the most prominent recommender systems in the literature and examine the impression of knowledge extracted from different sources. We then come up with this finding that semantic information from the user context has substantial impact on the performance of knowledge based recommender systems. Finally, some new clues for improvement the knowledge-based profiles have been proposed.Comment: 14 pages, 3 tables; International Journal of Computer Science & Engineering Survey (IJCSES) Vol.2, No.3, August 201

Consumer theory with bounded rational preferences

The neoclassical consumer maximizes utility and makes choices by completely preordering the feasible alternatives and weighing when indifferent. The consumer studied in this paper chooses by weighing when indifferent and also when indecisive, without necessarily preordering the alternatives or exhausting her budget. Preferences therefore need not be complete, transitive or non-satiated but are assumed strictly convex and "adaptive". The latter axiom is new and parallels that of ambiguity aversion in choice under uncertainty.preferences: incomplete, intransitive, convex, adaptive; representation; demand.

A Holistic Approach to Forecasting Wholesale Energy Market Prices

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process performed by grid operators, known as Optimal Power Flow (OPF), we develop a methodology to recover energy market's structure and predict the resulting nodal prices by using only publicly available data, specifically grid-wide generation type mix, system load, and historical prices. Our methodology uses the latest advancements in statistical learning to cope with high dimensional and sparse real power grid topologies, as well as scarce, public market data, while exploiting structural characteristics of the underlying OPF mechanism. Rigorous validations using the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) market data reveal a strong correlation between the grid level mix and corresponding market prices, resulting in accurate day-ahead predictions of real time prices. The proposed approach demonstrates remarkable proximity to the state-of-the-art industry benchmark while assuming a fully decentralized, market-participant perspective. Finally, we recognize the limitations of the proposed and other evaluated methodologies in predicting large price spike values.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Power System

An evaluation framework for stereo-based driver assistance

This is the post-print version of the Article - Copyright @ 2012 Springer VerlagThe accuracy of stereo algorithms or optical flow methods is commonly assessed by comparing the results against the Middlebury database. However, equivalent data for automotive or robotics applications rarely exist as they are difficult to obtain. As our main contribution, we introduce an evaluation framework tailored for stereo-based driver assistance able to deliver excellent performance measures while circumventing manual label effort. Within this framework one can combine several ways of ground-truthing, different comparison metrics, and use large image databases. Using our framework we show examples on several types of ground truthing techniques: implicit ground truthing (e.g. sequence recorded without a crash occurred), robotic vehicles with high precision sensors, and to a small extent, manual labeling. To show the effectiveness of our evaluation framework we compare three different stereo algorithms on pixel and object level. In more detail we evaluate an intermediate representation called the Stixel World. Besides evaluating the accuracy of the Stixels, we investigate the completeness (equivalent to the detection rate) of the StixelWorld vs. the number of phantom Stixels. Among many findings, using this framework enables us to reduce the number of phantom Stixels by a factor of three compared to the base parametrization. This base parametrization has already been optimized by test driving vehicles for distances exceeding 10000 km