Visual Dynamics: Probabilistic Future Frame Synthesis via Cross Convolutional Networks

We study the problem of synthesizing a number of likely future frames from a single input image. In contrast to traditional methods, which have tackled this problem in a deterministic or non-parametric way, we propose a novel approach that models future frames in a probabilistic manner. Our probabilistic model makes it possible for us to sample and synthesize many possible future frames from a single input image. Future frame synthesis is challenging, as it involves low- and high-level image and motion understanding. We propose a novel network structure, namely a Cross Convolutional Network to aid in synthesizing future frames; this network structure encodes image and motion information as feature maps and convolutional kernels, respectively. In experiments, our model performs well on synthetic data, such as 2D shapes and animated game sprites, as well as on real-wold videos. We also show that our model can be applied to tasks such as visual analogy-making, and present an analysis of the learned network representations.Comment: The first two authors contributed equally to this wor

A literature review of expert problem solving using analogy

We consider software project cost estimation from a problem solving perspective. Taking a cognitive psychological approach, we argue that the algorithmic basis for CBR tools is not representative of human problem solving and this mismatch could account for inconsistent results. We describe the fundamentals of problem solving, focusing on experts solving ill-defined problems. This is supplemented by a systematic literature review of empirical studies of expert problem solving of non-trivial problems. We identified twelve studies. These studies suggest that analogical reasoning plays an important role in problem solving, but that CBR tools do not model this in a biologically plausible way. For example, the ability to induce structure and therefore find deeper analogies is widely seen as the hallmark of an expert. However, CBR tools fail to provide support for this type of reasoning for prediction. We conclude this mismatch between experts’ cognitive processes and software tools contributes to the erratic performance of analogy-based prediction

Active Object Localization in Visual Situations

We describe a method for performing active localization of objects in instances of visual situations. A visual situation is an abstract concept---e.g., "a boxing match", "a birthday party", "walking the dog", "waiting for a bus"---whose image instantiations are linked more by their common spatial and semantic structure than by low-level visual similarity. Our system combines given and learned knowledge of the structure of a particular situation, and adapts that knowledge to a new situation instance as it actively searches for objects. More specifically, the system learns a set of probability distributions describing spatial and other relationships among relevant objects. The system uses those distributions to iteratively sample object proposals on a test image, but also continually uses information from those object proposals to adaptively modify the distributions based on what the system has detected. We test our approach's ability to efficiently localize objects, using a situation-specific image dataset created by our group. We compare the results with several baselines and variations on our method, and demonstrate the strong benefit of using situation knowledge and active context-driven localization. Finally, we contrast our method with several other approaches that use context as well as active search for object localization in images.Comment: 14 page