The development of a fuzzy expert system to help top decision makers in political and investment domains

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel UniversityThe world’s increasing interconnectedness and the recent increase in the number of notable regional and international events pose greater and greater challenges for political decision-making, especially the decision to strengthen bilateral economic relationships between friendly nations. Typically, such critical decisions are influenced by certain factors and variables that are based on heterogeneous and vague information that exists in different domains. A serious problem that the decision-maker faces is the difficulty in building efficient political decision support systems (DSS) with heterogeneous factors. One must take many factors into account, for example, language (natural or human language), the availability, or lack thereof, of precise data (vague information), and possible consequences (rule conclusions). The basic concept is a linguistic variable whose values are words rather than numbers and are therefore closer to human intuition. A common language is thus needed to describe such information which requires human knowledge for interpretation. To achieve robustness and efficiency of interpretation, we need to apply a method that can be used to generate high-level knowledge and information integration. Fuzzy logic is based on natural language and is tolerant of imprecise data. Fuzzy logic’s greatest strength lies in its ability to handle imprecise data, and it is perfectly suited for this situation. In this thesis, we propose to use ontology to integrate the scattered information resources from the political and investment domains. The process started with understanding each concept and extracting key ideas and relationships between sets of information by constructing object paradigm ontology. Re-engineering according to the object-paradigm (OP) provided quality for the developed ontology where conceptualization can provide more expressive, reusable object and temporal ontology. Then fuzzy logic has been integrated with ontology. And a fuzzy ontology membership value that reflects the strength of an inter-concept relationship to represent pairs of concepts across ontology has been consistently used. Each concept is assigned a fixed numerical value representing the concept consistency. Concept consistency is computed as a function of strength of all the relationships associated with the concept. Fuzzy expert systems enable one to weigh the consequences (rule conclusions) of certain choices based on vague information. Rule conclusions follow from rules composed of two parts, the if antecedent (input) and the then consequent (output). With fuzzy expert systems, one uses fuzzy logic toolbox graphical user interface (GUI) tools to build up a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to aid in decision-making. This research includes four main phases to develop a prototype architecture for an intelligent DSS that can help top political decision makers

AN ONTOLOGY-BASED KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION USING ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS FOR ENHANCING SELECTION OF PRODUCT PREFERENCES

Product alternatives, which emerges from large number of websites during searching, accounts for some hesitation experienced by customers in selecting satisfying product. As a result, making useful decision with many trade-off considerations becomes a major cause of such problem. Several approaches have been employed for product selection such as, fuzzy logic, Neuro-fuzzy, and weighted least square. However, these could not solve the problem of inconsistency and irrelevant judgement that occur in decision making. In this study, Ontology-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used for enhancing selection of product preferences. The model involved three fundamental components: product gathering, selection and decision making. Ontology Web Language (OWL) was utilized to define ontology in expressing product information gathering in a standard and structured manner for the purpose of interoperability while AHP was employed in making optimal choices. The procedure accepts customers’ perspectives as inputs which are classified into criteria and sub-criteria. Owl was created to foster customers’ interaction and priority estimation tool for AHP in order to generate the consistency ratio of individual judgements. The model was benchmarked with Geometric Mean (GM), Eigenvector (EV), Normalized Column Sum (NCS) Weighted Least Square (WLS) and Fuzzy Preference Programming (FPP). First and second order total deviations and violation rate were the performance parameters evaluation with AHP. The results showed that the minimum and maximum units of products are 2,452and 3,574, respectively. These implied that the proposed model was consistent, relevant and reflected a non-violation of judgment in selection of product preferences. &nbsp

Linguistic Consensus Models Based on a Fuzzy Ontology

The main purpose of a Group Decision Making model is to reach a consensual solution as quickly as possible by decreasing the gap between the perceptions of different decision makers. The perception of the decision makers depends on the various relations between alternatives and attributes. As a real life example, one can mention the present problem of the euro crisis: before finding a solution for the situation, the different perceptions of each country have to be attuned to have a common ground for negotiations. We have to cope with two different issues when modeling a Group Decision Making problem: (1) the relations describing alternatives and attributes are known only partially in most of the cases and (2) these relations change dynamically. Fuzzy ontologies can provide a solution to handle both issues in an efficient way: we can model incomplete and uncertain information using the well-established theory of fuzzy logic and we can dynamically model the changes in the structure by employing ontologies. Therefore, we propose a new linguistic extension of a consensus model to deal with the psychology of negotiation by using the power of a fuzzy ontology as weapon of influence in order to improve group decision scenarios making them more precise and realistic.European Union (EU)FUZZYLING-II TIN2010-17876Andalusian Excellence Projects TIC-05299 TIC-5991Finnish Funding Agency for Technology & Innovation (TEKES) 40039/1

Automatic message annotation and semantic interface for context aware mobile computing

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Docter of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.In this thesis, the concept of mobile messaging awareness has been investigated by designing and implementing a framework which is able to annotate the short text messages with context ontology for semantic reasoning inference and classification purposes. The annotated metadata of text message keywords are identified and annotated with concepts, entities and knowledge that drawn from ontology without the need of learning process and the proposed framework supports semantic reasoning based messages awareness for categorization purposes. The first stage of the research is developing the framework of facilitating mobile communication with short text annotated messages (SAMS), which facilitates annotating short text message with part of speech tags augmented with an internal and external metadata. In the SAMS framework the annotation process is carried out automatically at the time of composing a message. The obtained metadata is collected from the device’s file system and the message header information which is then accumulated with the message’s tagged keywords to form an XML file, simultaneously. The significance of annotation process is to assist the proposed framework during the search and retrieval processes to identify the tagged keywords and The Semantic Web Technologies are utilised to improve the reasoning mechanism. Later, the proposed framework is further improved “Contextual Ontology based Short Text Messages reasoning (SOIM)”. SOIM further enhances the search capabilities of SAMS by adopting short text message annotation and semantic reasoning capabilities with domain ontology as Domain ontology is modeled into set of ontological knowledge modules that capture features of contextual entities and features of particular event or situation. Fundamentally, the framework SOIM relies on the hierarchical semantic distance to compute an approximated match degree of new set of relevant keywords to their corresponding abstract class in the domain ontology. Adopting contextual ontology leverages the framework performance to enhance the text comprehension and message categorization. Fuzzy Sets and Rough Sets theory have been integrated with SOIM to improve the inference capabilities and system efficiency. Since SOIM is based on the degree of similarity to choose the matched pattern to the message, the issue of choosing the best-retrieved pattern has arisen during the stage of decision-making. Fuzzy reasoning classifier based rules that adopt the Fuzzy Set theory for decision making have been applied on top of SOIM framework in order to increase the accuracy of the classification process with clearer decision. The issue of uncertainty in the system has been addressed by utilising the Rough Sets theory, in which the irrelevant and indecisive properties which affect the framework efficiency negatively have been ignored during the matching process.The Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research (IRAQ

URBANO: A Tour-Guide Robot Learning to Make Better Speeches

—Thanks to the numerous attempts that are being made to develop autonomous robots, increasingly intelligent and cognitive skills are allowed. This paper proposes an automatic presentation generator for a robot guide, which is considered one more cognitive skill. The presentations are made up of groups of paragraphs. The selection of the best paragraphs is based on a semantic understanding of the characteristics of the paragraphs, on the restrictions defined for the presentation and by the quality criteria appropriate for a public presentation. This work is part of the ROBONAUTA project of the Intelligent Control Research Group at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid to create "awareness" in a robot guide. The software developed in the project has been verified on the tour-guide robot Urbano. The most important aspect of this proposal is that the design uses learning as the means to optimize the quality of the presentations. To achieve this goal, the system has to perform the optimized decision making, in different phases. The modeling of the quality index of the presentation is made using fuzzy logic and it represents the beliefs of the robot about what is good, bad, or indifferent about a presentation. This fuzzy system is used to select the most appropriate group of paragraphs for a presentation. The beliefs of the robot continue to evolving in order to coincide with the opinions of the public. It uses a genetic algorithm for the evolution of the rules. With this tool, the tour guide-robot shows the presentation, which satisfies the objectives and restrictions, and automatically it identifies the best paragraphs in order to find the most suitable set of contents for every public profil

Constructing Ontology-Based Cancer Treatment Decision Support System with Case-Based Reasoning

Decision support is a probabilistic and quantitative method designed for modeling problems in situations with ambiguity. Computer technology can be employed to provide clinical decision support and treatment recommendations. The problem of natural language applications is that they lack formality and the interpretation is not consistent. Conversely, ontologies can capture the intended meaning and specify modeling primitives. Disease Ontology (DO) that pertains to cancer's clinical stages and their corresponding information components is utilized to improve the reasoning ability of a decision support system (DSS). The proposed DSS uses Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) to consider disease manifestations and provides physicians with treatment solutions from similar previous cases for reference. The proposed DSS supports natural language processing (NLP) queries. The DSS obtained 84.63% accuracy in disease classification with the help of the ontology

Uncertainty in Ontologies: Dempster-Shafer Theory for Data Fusion Applications

Nowadays ontologies present a growing interest in Data Fusion applications. As a matter of fact, the ontologies are seen as a semantic tool for describing and reasoning about sensor data, objects, relations and general domain theories. In addition, uncertainty is perhaps one of the most important characteristics of the data and information handled by Data Fusion. However, the fundamental nature of ontologies implies that ontologies describe only asserted and veracious facts of the world. Different probabilistic, fuzzy and evidential approaches already exist to fill this gap; this paper recaps the most popular tools. However none of the tools meets exactly our purposes. Therefore, we constructed a Dempster-Shafer ontology that can be imported into any specific domain ontology and that enables us to instantiate it in an uncertain manner. We also developed a Java application that enables reasoning about these uncertain ontological instances.Comment: Workshop on Theory of Belief Functions, Brest: France (2010