Supporting Intelligence Analysts with a Trust-Based Question-Answering System

Intelligence analysts have to work in highly demanding circumstances. This causes mistakes with severe consequences, which is the reason that support systems for intelligence analysts have been developed. The support system proposed in this paper assists humans by offering support that improves their performance, without reducing them in their freedom. This is done with a trust-based question answering system (T-QAS). An important part of T-QAS are trust models which keep track of trust in each of the agents gathering information. Using these trust models, the system can support the intelligence analyst by: 1) helping to decide which agents are trusted enough to receive questions, 2) providing information about the reliability of each of the sources used, and 3) advising in making decisions based on information from possibly unreliable sources. An implementation of last two capabilities of T-QAS is evaluated in an experiment in which participants perform a decision making task with information from possibly unreliable sources. Results show that the proposed T-QAS support indeed helps participants to improve their performance. We therefore expect that future intelligence analyst support systems can benefit from the inclusion of T-QAS

Building a Data Warehouse step by step

Data warehouses have been developed to answer the increasing demands of quality information required by the top managers and economic analysts of organizations. Their importance in now a day business area is unanimous recognized, being the foundation for developing business intelligence systems. Data warehouses offer support for decision-making process, allowing complex analyses which cannot be properly achieved from operational systems. This paper presents the ways in which a data warehouse may be developed and the stages of building it.data warehouse, data mart, data integration, database management system, OLAP, data mining

Integrating simulation and business intelligence analyses for tactical and strategic decisions in transportation systems

Transportation planners, analysts and decision-makers usually make use of simulation tools in order to accurately predict the performance of new practices and policies before their implementation. Additionally, most of them, recently introduced new auxiliary Business Intelligence decision support tools in order to transform their available huge amount of real operating data into timely and accurate information for their decisions. Although both of those types of automated decision support are valuable, very few attempts were already made by researchers to integrate them into a unified tool. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for a decision support system that integrates both of these technologies, simulation and Business Intelligence, in order to enhance the overall practical interest for its usage by taking advantage of the foreseen synergy of the integration. The paper discusses the potential interest of the proposed integration, and identifies a set of questions that can then be answered with effectiveness and more efficiently than before

A Decision Support System For The Intelligence Satellite Analyst

The study developed a decision support system known as Visual Analytic Cognitive Model (VACOM) to support the Intelligence Analyst (IA) in satellite information processing task within a Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) domain. As a visual analytics, VACOM contains the image processing algorithms, a cognitive network of the IA mental model, and a Bayesian belief model for satellite information processing. A cognitive analysis tool helps to identify eight knowledge levels in a satellite information processing. These are, spatial, prototypical, contextual, temporal, semantic, pragmatic, intentional, and inferential knowledge levels, respectively. A cognitive network was developed for each knowledge level with data input from the subjective questionnaires that probed the analysts’ mental model. VACOM interface was designed to allow the analysts have a transparent view of the processes, including, visualization model, and signal processing model applied to the images, geospatial data representation, and the cognitive network of expert beliefs. VACOM interface allows the user to select a satellite image of interest, select each of the image analysis methods for visualization, and compare ‘ground-truth’ information against the recommendation of VACOM. The interface was designed to enhance perception, cognition, and even comprehension to the multi and complex image analyses by the analysts. A usability analysis on VACOM showed many advantages for the human analysts. These include, reduction in cognitive workload as a result of less information search, the IA can conduct an interactive experiment on each of his/her belief space and guesses, and selection of best image processing algorithms to apply to an image context

U.S. political intelligence and American policy on Iran, 1950-1979

This Ph.D. thesis examines United States political intelligence in regard to the regime of Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, the accuracy of this intelligence, and it's influence on American policy from 1950-1979. Based on archival material, declassified documents, and interviews with relevant personalities, this thesis seeks to chronicle nearly three decades of intelligence analysis on the factors governing political stability in Iran, and establish the veracity of this analysis vis-a-vis the historical record. In the early 1950s, American intelligence operatives contributed to the overthrow of the nationalist government in Iran headed by Dr. Muhammad Musaddiq, and the restoration to a position of authority of the Shah. In its exploration of the motives behind the 1953 covert political intervention to unseat Musaddiq, the thesis finds that the Eisenhower administration acted out of a set of Cold War priorities that included the need to maintain cohesion in the Anglo-American special relationship and fears of Iranian neutrality.The United States gained a pliant ally, but one whose power base was tenuous. By the end of the Eisenhower administration, intelligence analysts concluded that, in the absence of significant economic and political reform, the Shah's regime had become so unstable as to virtually guarantee revolutionary change. Acting on a broad consensus among the intelligence community about the regime's weakness, the Kennedy administration sought to bolster the government with limited financial and political support while encouraging reform. American pressure on this front led the Shah, in 1963, to announce the "White Revolution," a six point program for reform designed to shift the monarch's base of support from the traditional ruling elite to the lower classes. The announcement of the "White Revolution" marks a rough watershed in the intelligence-policy relationship in Washington as it pertained to Iran. While American policy makers viewed the program as a progressive step forward, intelligence analysts were inclined to view the Shah's reforms as ill-conceived and, given the lack of meaningful political reform, designed largely to consolidate power in the hands of the Shah. Thus began a period during the Johnson administration where intelligence analysts emphasized the need for the diffusion of power and the inclusion of the middle classes in the decision-making process, while American policy makers placed their hopes for stability in economic determinism.an policy makers placed their hopes for stability in economic determinism. The thesis explores the reasons behind the end ofthe intelligence-policy consensus on Iran and the failure ofthe intelligence community to communicate their position in an effective way. The reasons included the decreasing standing of the intelligence community in the US domestic context, the appearance of enhanced stability in Iran, the multiplicity of opinions within the diplomatic and intelligence reporting system, and most importantly, the changing international strategic environment.The Shah's value as an ally and proxy for American interests increased substantially after the 1967 Arab-Israeli conflict and the announcement, in 1968, that the British would end their presence in the Persian Gulf. The thesis concludes that sensitive analysts within the intelligence community continued to report that the regime in Tehran had failed to institutionalize itself and that the increasing economic prosperity brought about by the oil boom would eventually foster demands for democratization. By contrast, American policy became predicated on the highly personalized and prowestern policies of the Shah, and thus, the continuation of one-man rule in Iran. Consequently, policy makers in the Nixon administration sought to bolster the Shah's regime through unprecedented levels of military and diplomatic support. These policies helped to exacerbate the grievances of the Shah's domestic critics.Meanwhile, intelligence on the viability of the Shah's regime was downgraded as a priority by policy makers. Nevertheless, implicit concerns about the long-term consequences of the Shah's policies and ambitions can be found in much of the intelligence analyses of this period. Additionally, while failing to predict any imminent conflagration in Iran, this reporting did identify many of the factors that would play a decisive role in the 1978 revolution. In exploring these varying degrees of skepticism about the long-term viability of the Shah's regime, the thesis demonstrates that the intelligence community was not entirely surprised by the revolutionary forces that would bring about the downfall of the Pahlavi system, even if the exact identity of these forces were unknown. The work concludes that the intelligence community's tacit understanding of the weaknesses of the Pahlavi system enabled analysts to react more quickly to the Iranian revolution than has been previously supposed

A review of GIS-based information sharing systems

GIS-based information sharing systems have been implemented in many of England and Wales' Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships (CDRPs). The information sharing role of these systems is seen as being vital to help in the review of crime, disorder and misuse of drugs; to sustain strategic objectives, to monitor interventions and initiatives; and support action plans for service delivery. This evaluation into these systems aimed to identify the lessons learned from existing systems, identify how these systems can be best used to support the business functions of CDRPs, identify common weaknesses across the systems, and produce guidelines on how these systems should be further developed. At present there are in excess of 20 major systems distributed across England and Wales. This evaluation considered a representative sample of ten systems. To date, little documented evidence has been collected by the systems that demonstrate the direct impact they are having in reducing crime and disorder, and the misuse of drugs. All point to how they are contributing to more effective partnership working, but all systems must be encouraged to record how they are contributing to improving community safety. Demonstrating this impact will help them to assure their future role in their CDRPs. By reviewing the systems wholly, several key ingredients were identified that were evident in contributing to the effectiveness of these systems. These included the need for an effective partnership business model within which the system operates, and the generation of good quality multi-agency intelligence products from the system. In helping to determine the future development of GIS-based information sharing systems, four key community safety partnership business service functions have been identified that these systems can most effectively support. These functions support the performance review requirements of CDRPs, operate a problem solving scanning and analysis role, and offer an interface with the public. By following these business service functions as a template will provide for a more effective application of these systems nationally

Whitehall and the Iraq War: the UK's four Intelligence Enquiries

The UK intelligence community has recently undergone a ‘season of enquiry’ relating to the Iraq War and the ‘War on Terrorism’. This essay discusses each of the four enquiries in turn and argues that while the debate has been intense, much has been missed. The enquiries have largely focused on specific administrative issues, while the media have focused on blame–casting. Although the enquiries have been useful in underlining the extent of genuine ‘intelligence failure’, wider reflections about the nature and direction of UK intelligence have been conspicuously absent. None of the enquiries has dealt with the difficult issue of how intelligence analysis might interface with modern styles of policy–making. More broadly, it is argued that there is a growing mismatch between what intelligence can reasonably achieve and the improbable expectations of politicians and policy-makers

Investigating people: a qualitative analysis of the search behaviours of open-source intelligence analysts

The Internet and the World Wide Web have become integral parts of the lives of many modern individuals, enabling almost instantaneous communication, sharing and broadcasting of thoughts, feelings and opinions. Much of this information is publicly facing, and as such, it can be utilised in a multitude of online investigations, ranging from employee vetting and credit checking to counter-terrorism and fraud prevention/detection. However, the search needs and behaviours of these investigators are not well documented in the literature. In order to address this gap, an in-depth qualitative study was carried out in cooperation with a leading investigation company. The research contribution is an initial identification of Open-Source Intelligence investigator search behaviours, the procedures and practices that they undertake, along with an overview of the difficulties and challenges that they encounter as part of their domain. This lays the foundation for future research in to the varied domain of Open-Source Intelligence gathering

Artificial intelligence and UK national security: Policy considerations

RUSI was commissioned by GCHQ to conduct an independent research study into the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for national security purposes. The aim of this project is to establish an independent evidence base to inform future policy development regarding national security uses of AI. The findings are based on in-depth consultation with stakeholders from across the UK national security community, law enforcement agencies, private sector companies, academic and legal experts, and civil society representatives. This was complemented by a targeted review of existing literature on the topic of AI and national security. The research has found that AI offers numerous opportunities for the UK national security community to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing processes. AI methods can rapidly derive insights from large, disparate datasets and identify connections that would otherwise go unnoticed by human operators. However, in the context of national security and the powers given to UK intelligence agencies, use of AI could give rise to additional privacy and human rights considerations which would need to be assessed within the existing legal and regulatory framework. For this reason, enhanced policy and guidance is needed to ensure the privacy and human rights implications of national security uses of AI are reviewed on an ongoing basis as new analysis methods are applied to data

Trafficking in Persons: U.S. Policy and Issues for Congress

[Excerpt] This report focuses on international and domestic human trafficking and U.S. policy responses, with particular emphasis on the TVPA and its subsequent reauthorizations. The report begins with a description of key TIP-related definitions and an overview of the human trafficking problem. It follows with an overview of major foreign policy responses to international human trafficking. The report then focuses on responses to trafficking into and within the United States, examining relief for trafficking victims in the United States and discussing U.S. law enforcement efforts to combat domestic trafficking. The report concludes with an overview of current anti-trafficking legislation and an analysis of policy issues