Structuring the decision process : an evaluation of methods in the structuring the decision process

This chapter examines the effectiveness of methods that are designed to provide structure and support to decision making. Those that are primarily aimed at individual decision makers are examined first and then attention is turned to groups. In each case weaknesses of unaided decision making are identified and how successful the application of formal methods is likely to be in mitigating these weaknesses is assessed

QUANTIFYING AND MANAGING RISK IN AGRICULTURE

Risk and Uncertainty,

Decision style, ability and the effectiveness of a careers intervention : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Psychology at Massey University

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of a career decision-making exercise on decision-making skills in groups with different academic ability and career decision style. The study was conducted in a single sex female school using four classes (90 students in total) of Fourth Formers. Three separate phases were carried out within a two week period as part of the careers program. Phase one involved pretesting students using measures of knowledge of sources of careers information and actions to be used when making a careers decision. Career decision style, logical reasoning and demographic details were also obtained at this stage. During phase two students were either taught a specific decision-making exercise (Experimental intervention) or an exercise on women in the workforce (Placebo intervention). The final phase involved a post test and follow up career exercises. Results were analysed using 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (type of intervention, career decision style, academic ability and pre/post test) way ANOVAs for each dependent measure. The group exposed to the career decision-making exercise did not show the predicted improved performance over those exposed to the placebo intervention. Gains were evident in the knowledge of career information sources but this was the same for both interventions. Academic ability and career decision style did influence the intervention outcomes but not in the predicted directions. Results are discussed in terms of the adequacy of the measures of career decision-making skills and the unexpected impact of the placebo activity. The importance of taking into account decision style and academic ability in designing careers interventions is high-lighted

An Exploratory Study of Hypermedia Support for Problem Decomposition

Empirical hypermedia research has concentrated on usability rather than utility, and the research on utility has focused on information access as opposed to problem solving and decision making in organizations. This study, based on problem reduction theory, uses a hypermedia prototype system to support decision processes for solving a financial analysis problem. An exploratory laboratory experiment was conducted to study the feasibility of the prototype for hypermedia support of decision making. The process tracing techniques used suggest that a cognitive map of a decision maker\u27s thought process may be constructed. Results offer a great deal of promise in the use of hypermedia for organizational decision support. The implications of this study for further research are discussed

THE PRESENTATION OF ALTERNATIVES IN MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION SUPPORT

The issue of presenting alternatives to the decision maker in multiple criteria decision support is addressed. The traditional approach, advocated in many multiple criteria techniques, suggests that alternatives should be presented to the decision maker as a vector of criteria scores. We consider the merits of an augmented approach which, in addition to presenting the criteria scores to the decision maker, also makes the values of the underlying decision variables directly available to the decision maker. We describe an experiment where decision makers compare the traditional approach with this augmented approach. In this experiment, a group of decision makers solve a multiple criteria decision making problem which is constructed to uniquely reflect each decision maker\u27s perceptions concerning the decision scenario. We are able to demonstrate that the augmented approach results in 1) the selection of markedly different alternatives than those selected using the traditional approach, 2) an increase in user satisfaction with tile information system product, 3) a higher level of satisfaction with the alternative selected

Theories of choice in relation to farmer decisions

Farmers make decisions in an uncertain environment. Within a given year, weather and, consequently, yield are uncertain-even though more perfect knowledge exists relative to the mean, distribution and other statistics of yield over a period of years. Prices, especially for livestock where little government stabilization is provided, are particularly variable and give rise to difficulty of optimum choice. In addition to these main sources of uncertainty, many farmers are also faced with uncertainties stemming from personal and group relationships. An example of the latter is the length and conditions of tenure on rented farms. Within this environment of uncertainty, farmers must make choices of the combinations of crop and livestock products to produce, the farm practices and resource mixes to employ, the scale of operations and capital investment and other decisions which lead to profits or losses. While the decision environment is highly uncertain, recommendations to farmers on physical practices and economic organization are often, and perhaps even typically, made as if the future were known with absolute certainty. Over the previous two decades, however, certain theories were developed which recognized the existence of uncertainty in economic choice. These theories generally supposed that subjective notions or expectations were formulated with respect to future events, and that decision makers formulated choices accordingly-using various precautionary measures to conform with the degree of uncertainty and their ability to withstand the risks attached to unfavorable outcomes. More recently, theories of choice have been developed which suppose much less knowledge, or subjective anticipation, of the probability of future events. These theories of choice, or models for decisions under absolute uncertainty, define strategies which can be used by decision makers when they assume meager or no knowledge about likelihood of outcome of alternative future events

RISK MANAGEMENT THROUGH INSURANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES FROM AGRICULTURAL INPUT USE: AN ITALIAN CASE STUDY

The biological nature of agricultural production processes induce a higher degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic performance of farm enterprises. This has contributed to the development and acceptance of forms of public intervention aimed at reducing income variability that have no parallel in other sectors of the economy. In particular, subsidized crop insurance are a widely used tool. The impact of these programs on the decisions of production generates effects on input use, land use and thus, indirectly, environmental outcomes. The importance of this issue has grown in parallel with the growth in importance of the collective role of agriculture sector that has addressed the recent guidelines adopted by many developed countries. To examine the effects of public risk management programs on optimal nitrogen fertilizer use and land allocation to crops, this study carried out an empirical analysis by developing a mathematical programming model of a representative wheat-tomato farm in Apulia southern region of Italy. The model endogenizes nitrogen fertilizer rates and land allocation, as well as the insurance coverage levels, participation in insurance programs and the Environmental Payment (EP). This study utilized direct expected utility maximizing non-linear programming in combination with a simulation approach. Results show that with current crop insurance programs, the optimal nitrogen fertilizer rate slightly increases and the optimal acreage substantially increases for tomato whereas decrease for wheat. Assuming that the environmental negative effects of crop insurance are positively related to nitrogen fertilizer use, this type of public intervention implies negative environmental effects.Uncertainty, Risk Management, Crop Insurance, Input Use Decisions, Environmental Externalities, Mathematical Programming., Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty, Q10, Q14,

Principles For Aiding Complex Military Decision Making

Paper presented to the Second International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Monterey, Ca.The Tactical Decision Making Under Stress (TADMUS) program is being conducted to apply recent developments in decision theory and human-system interaction technology to the design of a decision support system for enhancing tactical decision making under the highly complex conditions involved in anti-air warfare scenarios in littoral environments. Our goal is to present decision support information in a format that minimizes any mismatches between the cognitive characteristics of the human decision maker and the design and response characteristics of the decision support system. Decision makers are presented with decision support tools which parallel the cognitive strategies they already employ, thus reducing the number of decision making errors. Hence, prototype display development has been based on decision making models postulated by naturalistic decision-making theory. Incorporating current human-system interaction design principles is expected to reduce cognitive processing demands and thereby mitigate decision errors caused by cognitive overload, which have been documented through research and experimentation. Topics include a discussion of: (1) the theoretical background for the TADMUS program; (2) a description of the cognitive tasks performed; (3) the decision support and human- system interaction design principles incorporated to reduce the cognitive processing load on the decision maker; and (4) a brief description of the types of errors made by decision makers and interpretations of the cause of these errors based on the cognitive psychology literature.Funding for the research cited in this paper was received from the Cognitive and Neural Science and Technology Division of the Office of Naval Research

Theoretical surgery: a new specialty in operative medicine

Theoretical surgery is defined as a nonoperative decision analysis and clinical and basic research supporting system for surgery. It developed to meet the needs of academic surgeons to coordinate communication with basic science disciplines. This article summarizes the development of this idea at the University of Marburg where theoretical surgery has reached departmental and institutional proportions. Its objectives and methods are described. Central to its operation are permanent working teams of 2 clinical surgeons, 1 basic scientist (theoretical surgeon), 1-2 technicians, and 1-2 students focusing on one problem in a joint interdisciplinary manner. Decision analysis with classification methods and the creation of decision trees and algorithms are central to the operation of this experiment. Lessons learned from this academic experiment and the accomplishments during the past 20 years are summarized on 3 levels of efficacy: performance, changing strategies, and outcome

A Proposed model for Decongesting Correctional Facilities in Edo State

There are three correctional centers in Edo state: Oko, Ozalla, and Ubiaja are used as case studies in this study, which focuses on the challenges of decongesting the country’s jail system. The objective of the study was to develop a model to aid in ranking and recommending inmates based on an acquittal likelihood factor who should be fast-tracked for a speedy trial, bail, or relocation/recommendation for other correctional techniques or facilities within the Nigerian legal system; aside from the prison. The paper presents a model for a decision support system that incorporates three multi-criteria decision making systems, SAW, TOPSIS, and AHP, as well as six factors: those who are awaiting trial, detained, sentenced to life, condemned inmates, long-term offenders, and those who have received only a light sentence. While assigning weights to rank the prisoners, consider their dependency, age, gender, health status, and percentage of their sentence served. Experts, including two magistrates, ten prison wardens, five attorneys, ten convicts, six pastors, and nine NGO employees, engaged in a questionnaire poll to predetermine weights. The model offers the decision maker two different levels of guidance, namely (a) a beginner mode and (b) an expert mode. The beginner mode is intended for decision-makers who are not familiar with the multi-criteria process. The advanced mode is employed when the decision-maker is conversant with the MA method and can choose a particular method using the predefined weights